Who will the Rangers protect in the Rule 5 Draft?

The offseason keeps on chugging along, and we are now approaching one of the magic dates on the MLB offseason calendar — the deadline for adding minor leaguers to the 40 man roster to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft. That deadline is next week — Tuesday, November 19, to be exact.

As was mentioned in the morning links post this morning, MLB.com has a piece up that summarizes the rules regarding the Rule 5 Draft , including the rules regarding who is eligible and the rules regarding rostering of Rule 5 picks, so I'm not going to re-hash all that, and will instead encourage you to click on the link above if you want to read about that.

Instead, we will talk about the Rangers' Rule 5 eligible players who are realistic candidates to be added to the 40 man roster by the Rangers, or be selected in the Rule 5 Draft by another team. Unlike the past several years, when we have seen some degree of a 40 man roster crunch with the Rangers roster, the Texas 40 man roster situation this offseason isn't that problematic. The Rangers currently have 37 players on the 40 man roster, and that includes a few guys like Roansy Contreras and Matt Festa and Carson Coleman who I suspect are currently on the 40 man roster because, well, there's no need to drop them from the 40 man roster just yet.

The Rangers may not even need to drop anyone from the 40 man roster between now and the Tuesday deadline to open up any spots for players added from the minors. Texas currently has three empty spots on the 40 man roster, and there are only two players — pitchers Emiliano Teodo and Winston Santos — who appear to be in the lock/near-lock category to be added. It isn't out of the question that those are the only two players the Rangers protect from the Rule 5 Draft next week.

The MLB.com I linked lists, for each team, the guys who are among the team's top 30 prospects (based on the most recent MLB Pipeline rankings for each team, which I will note are rather stale) who would be eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft if they are not protected. There are five Rangers players who fit that category, all righthanded pitchers:

Aidan Curry

Josh Stephan

Dane Acker

Curry and Stephan are first time R5 eligibles, having been signed as undrafted free agents out of high school in the summer of 2020, the year the MLB Draft was only five rounds. Curry had an awful year at high-A Hickory, putting up a 6.44 ERA in 93 innings over 23 appearances while having a huge gopher ball problem. Josh Stephan was injured for much of 2024 and had a 4.94 ERA in 58 innings over 12 outings for AA Frisco when he was healthy, though he rebounded with a solid Arizona Fall League campaign, putting up a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings over six appearances.

Curry and Stephan were guys we flagged last offseason and early this year as being potential 40 man additions in the 2024-25 offseason, but at this point neither seems likely to be protected or selected. Stephan would, I guess, be the more likely of the two, given he had a better year, is a level more advanced than Curry, and has performed well in the AFL, but he is a command-over-stuff guy, and those types of pitchers don't tend to be picked in the Rule 5 Draft unless they've had much more success than Stephan does because you can't stick them in the pen with an eye towards their stuff potentially playing up and being useable in short stints.

This is the second time Acker is Rule 5 eligible, as he was exposed and went undrafted last offseason. A 4th round pick by the Sacramento Athletics out of Zero U in 2020, Acker was acquired by the Rangers as part of the Elvis Andrus/Jonah Heim trade in the 2020-21 offseason. Acker has generally been good when he has been healthy — he has a 3.29 ERA as a professional — but he hasn't been able to stay healthy, missing time with various ailments, including undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. As a result, he has accumulated just 196 innings over the past four seasons.

Acker had an okay year for AA Frisco in 2024, putting up a 3.05 ERA in 97 innings over 18 starts and eight relief appearances, with 9.6 Ks per nine and 3.7 walks per nine. He's someone who could be selected if exposed, as a relatively advanced and older (he turns 26 early next year) arm that could be used in a swingman role, or potentially a middle relief role, in 2025. The Rangers could well add him to the 40 man roster both to avoid losing him and with an eye towards his possibly being a depth option in 2025, someone they can bring up as a long man or for a spot start in case of injuries, then send back down when not needed.

As I mentioned, the current MLB Rangers prospect list is stale, and there are players who I suspect will be on the list when they do a full update that aren't on their top 30 now, and who are Rule 5 eligible this offseason. Those players aren't listed in the MLB.com , but are guys who are candidates to be added to the 40 man roster next week nonetheless.

The prominent of those individuals is infielder Maximo Acosta, whose career arc has seen him go from top prospect to non-prospect to back on the prospect map. Given a $1.65 million bonus as part of the Rangers' 2019 J-2 class — the second highest bonus by a Rangers J-2 signing that year, behind only, uh, Bayron Lora — Acosta immediately generated buzz and impressed scouts. He was the #5 prospect on the Baseball America Rangers list heading into 2020, and #7 heading into 2021. The hype didn't translate into performance, however, and he fell to #21 on the BA Rangers list after a disappointing pro debut in the ACL. Pedestrian performances at low-A and high-A in 2022 and 2023 followed, and while he was young for each level, he didn't show the tools or performance hoped for.

Heading into 2023 and 2024, BA didn't have him in their Rangers top 30 list. Jamey Newberg listed him at #58 heading into the 2024 season, between Tyler Owens and Trevor Hauver. He was in the "other prospects of note" category in the Fangraphs 2023 Rangers rankings, not making their top 43 , and didn't even warrant a mention in the Fangraphs Rangers list in 2024.

Acosta was sent to AA Frisco to start the 2024 season, and it looked to be more of the same from him. Acosta struggled early on in the year, and when he was placed on the injured list on May 19, he was slashing just .254/.321/.339.

I don't know what sort of treatment he started getting while on the injured list, but whatever it was, it worked. From May 30, when he was activated from the injured list, to season's end, Acosta slashed .295/.358/.456, with just 38 Ks against 24 walks in 316 plate appearances, and with 18 stolen bases in 24 attempts to boot. Sent to the Arizona Fall League once the AA season, Acosta continued to perform — he has slashed .314/.392/.486 in 79 plate appearances while going 8 for 9 on stolen bases.

Acosta's surge has put him in a position where the Rangers are going to have to make a call on him, a much, much tougher call than it appeared it would be six months ago. He fits the profile of a certain type of player teams snatch up in the Rule 5 Draft — young (he turned 22 last month), good upside, able to contribute in a bench role due to his speed and defense.

In fact, as I'm writing this, I think I've convinced myself that, yes, Maximo Acosta will be protected next week.

The other kind of off-the-radar player I could see being protected is lefthanded reliever Bryan Magdaleno. Magdaleno, who turns 24 early next year, is a signee out of the Dominican Republic who basically did little of note in his professional career prior to 2024. In the 2024 season, however, he put up a 1.27 ERA between low-A Down East, high-A Hickory and AA Frisco over 42.2 innings, while striking out 68 of 168 batters faced.

Like Acosta, he finished the year strong. From June 16 through the end of the regular season, he threw 25 innings and allowed no earned runs (and just one unearned run, when a Zombie Runner scored in the 10th in a game), gave up just three hits, and struck out 41 of 88 batters faced, with 9 walks. He held batters to a ridiculous .040/.161/.040 slash line in that stretch. He gave up no runs in seven regular season appearances for Hickory and four regular season appearances for Frisco, with his record at AA being blemished only by virtue of his giving up two runs in a playoff game against Midland.

Teams are always going to covet lefty relievers, and this is the type of profile that will get a player popped in the Rule 5 Draft — someone who could potentially step in immediately and provide value, or at least not be terrible, in a major league bullpen. The track record is limited, but it could be enough to get him protected.

I doubt anyone else gets protected next week. Ryan Garcia, the Rangers' second round pick in 2019, finally was healthy and productive for a full season, putting up a 3.77 ERA between Frisco and Round Rock, and maybe a team grabs him and sees if he can be a fifth starter or a long man. But he turns 27 in January and isn't someone I think the Rangers would fear losing enough to burn a 40 man spot on him.

Infielder Cody Freeman, the Rangers' 4th rounder in 2019, had a nice season, slashing .264/.321/.432 for Frisco and then .308/.416/.508 in the AFL. But for Acosta's breakout, I could see him potentially being protected, but he's older than Freeman (he turns 24 in January), doesn't have the speed or glove Acosta has, and doesn't offer the same upside. Maybe the Rangers protect both of them and let Jonathan Ornelas, who has a similar skill set, go, but I'm not betting on Freeman getting protected.

Bat-only guys are rarely grabbed in the Rule 5 Draft, and Abi Ortiz's bad 2024 campaign at AA Frisco means he's almost certainly safe from being picked, and thus will not be protected. Blaine Crim turns 28 in June, is short for a first baseman, and in three seasons in the PCL has slashed .283/.374/.478, which isn't the sort of eye-popping numbers you usually need for that sort of profile. Maybe a team grabs him as a potential platoon DH or 1B, but I think the Rangers are willing to take that risk, and so I doubt he's protected.

Maybe I've missed someone, but I don't think there's anyone else out there in the Rangers system who has more than a de minimis chance of getting protected, or of being picked in the Rule 5 Draft and sticking on a major league roster for a full season.

At this point I'm going to officially predict the Rangers protect four players:

Which means the team will have to make just one move to get a roster spot open, barring a signing, waiver claim, or trade between now and Tuesday.