Who's Winning the Election? What Every Indicator Shows on Final Campaign Day

As Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump wrap up one of the wildest and closest presidential contests in modern American history, final polls continue to suggest a jump ball race, in which no respected analyst is willing to declare a likely victor.

After one felony trial, an incumbent president pushed off the ticket, multiple assassination attempts against the challenger, the race comes down to a final push across a handful of states on the eve of November 5.

Key metrics like polling averages, electoral forecasts, voter enthusiasm, betting markets, and early voting numbers have been making headlines daily. Here's where all those indicators are pointing going into Election Day.

Harris Holds Slight Edge in National Polls

Kamala Harris holds a modest lead over Donald Trump in three out of four of the most reliable national polling averages reviewed by Newsweek. Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows her leading by 1.2 points, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting her compared to Trump's 46.8 percent.

Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin also puts Harris in the lead at 48.5 percent to Trump's 47.4, a margin of 1.1 points. The New York Times shows a similar result, with Harris at 49 percent to Trump's 48 percent, giving her a one-point edge.

However, the RealClearPolitics average shows Trump slightly ahead, with 48.4 percent compared to Harris's 48.1 percent, a narrow 0.3-point advantage.

Electoral College Projections Favor Trump, Barely

Harris may be leading in national polls, but her path to the necessary 270 Electoral College votes has tightened. Like Hillary Clinton in 2016, Harris may win the popular vote but still lose the Electoral College.

As of Monday, FiveThirtyEight's projections give Donald Trump a 52 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, with Harris at 48 percent. The updated model reflected several late polls in Trump's favor in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Nate Silver 's Electoral College forecast similarly favors Trump, showing him with 53.8 percent to Harris' 48.8 percent. Both forecasts factor in simulations that analyze voter behavior and state-by-state trends.

Trump Still Has Slight Edge in Betting Markets

The odds remain in Trump's favor across multiple betting platforms that allow for wagers on the outcome of the election.

The Election Betting Odds tracker, consolidating data from five major markets, currently puts Trump at a 54.6 percent chance of winning, with Harris trailing at 45 percent.

On Kalshi, a regulated platform recently cleared by the courts to keep accepting election bets, Trump holds a 54 percent advantage over Harris's 46 percent, a slight turn toward Trump since the trendlines converged over the weekend.

Polymarket, an unregulated crypto-based platform supported by Trump and Elon Musk , shows a stronger lean toward Trump, with a 58 percent chance against Harris's 42.2 percent—though this has narrowed from last Thursday's 65-35 split favoring Trump.

PredictIt tells a different story: Harris has overtaken Trump, with shares priced at 55 cents (55 percent chance) to Trump's 51 cents.

Financial Markets React to Iowa Poll Shift

A well-respected weekend poll out of Iowa that shows Harris beating Trump in the red state stirred the stock market when it opened on Monday, driving volatility across major indexes on the eve of the election.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all dropped Monday, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields dipped after surging in recent weeks, suggesting increased demand for long-term government debt. That can be viewed as a signal that bond traders are expecting a Harris win, though there are a multitude of factors at play in any stock or bond market moves that make them poor predictors of the election outcome.

The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, is also rising, reflecting heightened uncertainties over the election. A Trump win would be less of a shock to markets compared to 2016, when Treasury yields surged on hopes of tax cuts and economic growth amid potential debt concerns.

Historically, the U.S. stock market has risen regardless of which party wins the presidency. In 2020, stocks climbed steadily after Election Day, despite Trump's refusal to concede.

Voter Enthusiasm Reaches New Heights

Voter enthusiasm has surged since Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the ticket, giving an edge to Democrats looking for a big turnout to take them over the finish line. A recent Gallup poll shows that 78 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters feel "more enthusiastic than usual about voting" this year.

Additionally, a Monmouth University poll found that overall voter enthusiasm is at 68 percent, with sharp increases among Democrats (from 46 percent in June to 85 percent) and independents (from 34 percent to 53 percent), also signaling a strong turnout that could help lift Harris.

Similar Favorability Ratings for Harris and Trump

The candidates' net favorability ratings remain close, but slightly favor the Democrats. RealClearPolling averages indicate that Harris has a net favorability of -2.9 percent, with 46.9 percent of voters viewing her favorably and 49.8 percent giving her unfavorable marks. Trump holds a net favorability of -6.8 percent, with 45.3 percent viewing him favorably and 52.1 percent unfavorably.

These deltas, which have barely changed in recent weeks, underscore the challenges both candidates face in appealing to an extremely divided electorate.

Most Americans See Country on the Wrong Track

In one of the bigger warning signs for Harris, given that she represents the party in power, voter sentiment about the country's direction remains largely underwater. According to RealClearPolling, 61.3 percent of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, while only 28.4 percent feel it's on the right track—a gap of 32.9 points.

Notably, the right track/wrong track numbers were almost identical in the lead up to the 2016 election, when Trump pulled off a surprise victory over Hillary Clinton.

Record Early Voting Is 'Choose Your Own Adventure'

Over 77 million people have already voted early, either in person or by mail. This high turnout has led some officials to predict that polling stations in battleground states like Georgia could be unusually empty on Election Day.

One reason for the surge is Trump's encouragement for early voting, a shift from 2020 when he urged Republicans to vote only in person on Election Day. Record early turnout in Republican districts suggests his voters are following his call, though not all early-voting trends favor Trump.

In the likely tipping-point state of Pennsylvania, for instance, women who are registered as Democrats make up the largest share of early votes. Further, Democrats were more inclined to vote early or by mail last cycle given that liberal voters tended to be more conscious of the pandemic. Some analysts have said they see more Harris voters coming out on Election Day this year as a result, which could skew the early vote trends.