Why Colorado bucked the national trend toward Republicans

Immigration, abortion and housing were the three issues, in that order, that Colorado voters who cast ballots in this year's election felt are the most important for the state government to address, according to an exit poll conducted on behalf of the nonpartisan Colorado Polling Institute.

The poll was conducted by New Bridge Strategy, a Republican firm, and Aspect Strategic, a Democratic firm, from Oct. 24 to Nov. 4 among 822 voters statewide who had either self-identified as having cast a ballot or said they would definitely vote in the election. It had a margin of error of 3.42 percentage points.

When the pollsters last asked voters in March about the top issues for state government to address, immigration was No. 1, and homelessness and housing were No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. At the time, abortion wasn't even among the top issues.

"Abortion really catapulted up significantly," said pollster Lori Weigel, who leads New Bridge Strategy. "Clearly, tens of millions of dollars being spent talking about particular issues can have an impact."

Other highlights from the poll:

A vast majority, or 87%, said they were satisfied with Colorado's system of voting, a sentiment that was shared across party lines, though highest among Democrats (99%) and lowest among Republicans (72%)

Most voters, or 64%, said they think the outcome of the presidential race will "make a great deal of difference in their family's lives." "We had 87% collectively of Trump voters telling us (the election's effect would be) a great deal or quite a bit, virtually the same proportion of Harris voters in our state saying it was going to have a big impact," Weigel said.

Another big majority, or 85%, of voters said they like directly voting on many different ballot measures, down just 3 percentage points — or within the margin — of when the pollsters asked the same question in March

Four-in-ten voters said they felt "very well informed" about the initiatives on the ballot this year, while 52% said they felt "well informed" but were in need of more information while just 8% said they didn't feel like they had enough information on the measures.

There was a distinct partisan divide on who favored and opposed Amendment 79, which, after passing, preserves abortion access in the state constitution. About 92% of Democrats voted for the measure, while 59% of unaffiliated voters backed the initiative and 23% of Republicans did so, too.

The pollsters said that just 18% of voters who cast ballots for President-elect Donald Trump also voted "yes" on Amendment 79, while 91% of the voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris also backed the initiative.

The failure of Proposition 131, which would have moved the state to an all-candidate primary system in which the top four vote-getters advanced to ranked choice general elections, can be described by a generation divide, according to the pollsters. "The measure's base of support was younger men, and they supported the measure by a 21-point margin," said pollster Kevin Ingham, who leads Aspect Strategic. "But older voters were ultimately 131's undoing.

Voters over the age of 45 — both men and women — were overwhelmingly opposed to Proposition 131 which was more than enough to offset 131's strength with young men." Ingham said 131 was also incredibly unpopular with Republicans, and that only 49% each of Democrats and unaffiliated voters supported it.

Ingham also said 53% of Harris voters supported Proposition 131, while just 27% of Trump voters did.

Why Colorado didn't trend red

Colorado didn't experience the massive shift this year toward Republicans compared with the 2020 presidential election like most of the country did . Ingham and Weigel said there are a few reasons why.

First, Weigel said, Colorado has a well-educated population. "We saw some real, stark dynamics, both nationally and here in Colorado, based on education level in terms of vote preference," she said.

She also said that while the cost of housing was top of mind for Colorado voters this year, the overall cost of living was less of a concern than it was for voters in other states.

"We are a heavily urbanized state — sort of in the top 10 in terms of the most dense populations," Ingham said. "We are one of the least religious states, and we are not particularly diverse. About 80% or more of our electorate in 2020 were white and Caucasian voters. Most of the shift that we saw nationally (this year) was among voters of color."

Ingham said there were some examples of the vote leaping toward Trump as compared with 2020 in the San Luis Valley, which has a large Hispanic population. In Costilla County, the vote shifted 11 percentage points in Trump's favor, while the shift was 10 points each in Conejos and Alamosa counties. Adams County shifted 5 percentage points toward Trump this year as compared to 2020.

"But that was seemingly balanced out by Harris' strengths in less diverse counties," Ingham said. "If you look at some of the whitest counties in the state, including Douglas, Larimer and Jefferson counties, Harris actually made small gains over Biden's performance."

As of 7 a.m. Friday, Harris was leading Trump by Colorado by 11.6 percentage points. That's less than the 13.5 percentage points by which Joe Biden beat Trump in Colorado in 2020.