Why did Donald Trump win Fresno County? ‘People just voted their pocketbook’

Fresno County swung Republican in a presidential election for the first time in two decades, backing President-elect Donald Trump's bid to return to the White House, and experts say much of it came down to working class voters.

The county saw one of the biggest shifts toward Trump in the state. Fresno County has returned 53.1% of the vote for Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris (44.6%) as of the county Registrar of Voters' latest tally.

Though there are still ballots to count, that's basically a complete swing from 2020 when President Joe Biden won Fresno County with 52.9% of the vote to Trump's 45%. Trump also lost the county vote in 2016 to Hilary Clinton, albeit by a smaller margin of six percentage points.

What changed this time?

Turnout is one likely factor. In Fresno County, the 2020 presidential election drew a record 75% of registered voters, according to the Registrar of Voters.

The number of voters who cast ballots this year is on pace to be about 60%, which is typical for a presidential election in Fresno County, but also suggests several would-be Harris supporters didn't vote.

Experts and voters told The Bee the economy played a significant role in the shift toward Trump, pointing to rising consumer prices and feelings of difficult economic times.

"I think people just voted their pocketbook," said Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at Fresno State.

"There was some concern about immigration and crime as well, but I think it was really the economic pocketbook," Holyoke said. "And if Trump can't deliver relatively quickly on bringing prices down, then those people will abandon him. They are not super loyal supporters."

Jerry Reyes, a 24-year-old insurance agent and registered independent, voted for his first presidential election this year after sitting out the 2020 election.

The Clovis resident offered a simple reason why he cast his ballot for Trump: "Life isn't getting better."

"People started realizing that the truth is, prices went up. The money that was given to us during COVID under a certain administration, we realized that money wasn't free," Reyes said.

Latinos swing for Trump Exit polls for the 2024 election showed Trump received historic support nationally from Latino voters, like Reyes.

The Fresno County breakdown on voters was not yet available but early statewide tallies suggest more Latinos voted for Trump in California, where that demographic has long been considered a reliable vote for the Democratic party.

Monica Diaz, a Fresno County business owner and Latina, said she and many Latinos voted with their consciences. She said the election results in Fresno County reflected "people speaking out that we're fed up."

"The politicians run for office and they don't keep their promises, and they do not take care of business," Diaz said. "They focus more on their own agenda than the people's agenda."

La Abeja, a newsletter written for and by California Latinos Sign up here to receive our weekly newsletter centered around Latino issues in California.

The support for Trump from Latinos would seem to fly in the face of his rhetoric demonizing immigrants and his promise of mass deportations .

California is home to the largest undocumented immigrant population in the country, yet many of the San Joaquin Valley counties with the largest undocumented populations — and those that rely the most on immigrant workers — went red.

Kerman Mayor Maria Pacheco said her town has a large undocumented population, as do many nearby West Side towns like Huron and Mendota.

"I know that people are struggling financially, and I know there was a lot of promises for some economic relief, and I think that was probably people's incentive for voting the way that they did," Pacheco said. "But I don't think that they really understood the unintended consequences of that, and one of those consequences being the threats of deportation."

Whether Trump follows through on his promise for mass deportation remains to be seen. California has greater protections for the undocumented than other states. Some experts have also noted such a large scale deportation effort by Trump would cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

The state Legislature passed laws and took a stance in California to protect undocumented immigrants in 2016 in response to Trump's efforts during his first term.

Though the Valley has voted Democrat in every presidential election since the 2004 race to re-elect President George W. Bush, it has a significant conservative voting bloc.

That has many advocates watching what will happen, said Jesús Martínez, executive director of Central Valley Immigrant Integration Collaborative.

"We also want to emphasize that our concern is, and our priority is, the defense of immigrant rights," he said. "We are going to be working against those policies to try to harm immigrant communities."

Fresno County turnout hurt Harris The Valley's support for Trump did not come as a surprise to many.

Unlike more populous parts of California that went overwhelmingly blue for Harris, Fresno and much of the San Joaquin Valley have registered Republicans and Democrats that are not as far apart ideologically, according to Assemblymember Jim Patterson, R-Fresno.

"I actually think that some of this vote in Fresno County is almost an aspirational kind of vote, which says, 'I'm going to give this a chance, and maybe you know what, it just might get better,' " he said.

Patterson also noted a discontent among voters who see prices rising at the gas pump or in the grocery store.

The former Fresno mayor, who has termed out of the state Assembly's District 8, said the leaders of the Republican party could seize on the momentum by better connecting with voters in the region who have not historically voted for the GOP.

"I think it's a mistake for people in public life to see constituents merely as a vote. I see the constituents I serve as people, families, different histories, aspirations, hopes and dreams and all of that," he said. "Voters know if you're real. Voters know if you care, and I think it's a terrible misjudgment politically as well."

Still, others saw Valley voters' support of Trump as an indictment on the Democratic Party. They did not speak to the needs in many communities, according to Sukaina Hussain, deputy director of strategic initiatives at the California Immigrant Policy Center.

"It wasn't enough for them to just say we are not Trump, right?" Hussain said. "Because they did not connect with people's interests and respond to their needs and share a vision for a future that was inclusive for them."

Fresno County voter turnout for the presidential election reverted back to the usual range of about 60% after a record 75% of registered voters participated in 2020.

That return to the average likely tilted the vote in favor of Trump, according to Nate Monroe, a UC Merced professor of political science. Much of that contingency who stayed home were likely Harris voters.

Monroe said the election also saw traditional Democratic supporters like national labor groups give less enthusiastic support for Harris or even stump for Trump, which may have also been reflected locally.

The president of the Teamsters Union appeared at the Republican National Convention, for example, and the International Association of Fire Fighters declined to endorse a candidate this year though it had supported Biden in 2020.

Monroe said the election may be a shifting of voting blocs more aligned by class than a shared ethnicity.

"I'm quite interested to see whether over the next four years, the two parties — not just the Democrats but the Republicans — think they've sort of tapped into something with this victory in terms of the different kind of coalition of individuals that they've put together to win," Monroe said.

The Sacramento Bee contributed to this report.