Why NC Democrats will flip north Mecklenburg seat and likely fall short against Cotham
Two highly competitive state House races in the Charlotte area had different results: one being a thin, tentative win for a Republican and the other a decisive victory for a Democrat.
The reasons for those results depend on who you ask.
Republican Rep. Tricia Cotham on Thursday morning led her opponent Nicole Sidman 50.26% to 49.74% with all precincts reported in the competitive House District 105 — a margin small enough it may lead to a recount. In northern Mecklenburg, House District 98 saw different results, with Democrat Beth Helfrich defeating her opponent Melinda Bales by a margin of over 2,000 votes.
Both races were considered important to Democratic efforts to overturn the Republican supermajority in the General Assembly. Democratic challengers in both races also generated more than a million dollars in the final quarter of fundraising before Election Day. Sidman's race attracted attention from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee , which named her one of 180 "spotlight candidates" across the country.
Sam Lozier, Democratic House Caucus spokesperson, said the final result discrepancy is due partly to the way the districts are drawn.
"The outcome in District 105 was influenced by redistricting. There are still some outstanding ballots in Mecklenburg County that we are waiting on that could impact the end result of this race. We will be working to make sure every ballot is counted," he said in a statement to The Charlotte Observer. "Across the board we were up against unfavorable maps and outperformed expectations on a night that didn't go our way nationwide."
While Lozier and Sidman said they aren't ready to concede the race, a spokesperson for the Mecklenburg County Board of Elections said Thursday morning there aren't enough absentee ballots in the district to change the outcome of Sidman's race. Provisional ballots, which are used when there's a question about someone's registration, have to be approved by the board before they're counted.
"We've done the math. She would have to get them all," spokesperson Kristin Mavromatis said of the absentee ballots in the district. "I shouldn't emphatically say no, because it's conceivable, but it's highly unlikely. I don't even think I have 300 (ballots) there."
How they finished
House District 105, which includes Mint Hill, Matthews and south Charlotte, is 51.3% Republican and 46.5% Democratic, according to Dave's Redistricting. House District 98 typically votes 49.9% Republican and 48% Democratic, according to Dave's Redistricting, a website that aggregates votes from 2016 to 2022.
Dan McCorkle, a Mecklenburg County Democratic strategist, has a different explanation for the outcome of Sidman's race: campaign tactics.
"Helfrich was a deeply rooted native of north Mecklenburg and projected a working mom, family oriented candidate profile," McCorkle said. "Her TV ads were top notch and down right folksy. (Helfrich) seemed to have a more positive, issue-oriented message."
McCorkle said Helfrich had a stronger method of mobilizing voters, especially when it came to canvassing in Huntersville, where her opponent previously served as mayor. Sidman, he said, was more focused on opposing Cotham than being an individual candidate.
"(Sidman's) campaign was entirely '(Cotham) betrayed us and must be defeated' ... and basically overshadowed her candidate messaging," McCorkle said. "Cotham has been winning elections since 2008 and prefers a less personal but highly effective mail and media campaign."
Stephen Wiley, director of the House GOP Caucus, also said the result can't be explained by demographics alone. The Helfrich campaign was more focused than Sidman's campaign, Wiley said.
"There are always multiple reasons why the results happen the way they do, but the trend lines in northern Mecklenburg are a little more favorable to Democrats than in House District 105," Wiley said. "I also think Helfrich ran a more disciplined campaign than Sidman. Every time we sent a single negative mail piece the Sidman campaign rushed to their phones to complain about it, whereas the Helfrich campaign didn't get thrown off their game plan as easily."
Where did they win?
District 105 and 98 are both products of the 2023 redistricting conducted by North Carolina's Republican-led legislature.
Cotham was elected to the state House as a Democrat in a district that leaned blue and included parts of east Charlotte and Mint Hill. She ran in 2024 in a district that hugged the county's southeastern border and snaked into south Charlotte.
Cotham preformed best in precincts around Mint Hill while Sidman did better in Matthews. The two candidates split a collection of precincts west of Providence Road in Charlotte.
In 2023, District 98 was redrawn to flatten its southern border in Huntersville instead of stretching toward Charlotte.
Bales outperformed Helfrich in precincts west of Interstate 77, while Helfrich pulled ahead in eastern precincts. Both candidates won some Huntersville precincts.
Will there be a recount?
Cotham led the race with a margin of less than 300 votes once all precincts were reported on Tuesday, but Sidman's campaign said a recount may be in order.
Mecklenburg County Supervisor of Elections Michael Dickerson said recounts are allowed when the margin of victory is less than 1%. The process involves putting every ballot through the reader for a second time, and can take multiple says, he said. In the meantime, elections officials looked at absentee by mail ballots Thursday morning and provisional ballots beginning Thursday afternoon — both of which could change vote tallies. Though, they may not change results.
Sidman isn't ready to concede just yet.
"Because of everything you invested in this race; because of how important this seat is to the future of our state and a new Democratic majority in two years; because of everything we owe to our daughters and sons; I talked it over with my family and our team, and we all agreed there's only one path forward," Sidman said in an emailed statement to her supporters. "We're going to fight like Hell for every vote."
