Why Roki Sasaki, the top prospect with ace upside, isn’t necessarily destined for Dodgers

The Roki Sasaki sweepstakes is on, and as with any top-tier free agent, there's intense interest in where he'll sign once he's posted.

But the 23-year-old righty is not like most top free agents — in some ways that you've probably heard and some that you haven't.

And some of the early narratives surrounding his free agency decision, including the idea that he's destined for the Los Angeles Dodgers , aren't fully capturing the state of play. So let's dig in.

Sasaki really popped on my radar in 2023 when I was calling the World Baseball Classic for SiriusXM. I was in awe of his Japan teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto 's ability to pitch: add, subtract and paint the corners. It was clear the future Dodger — and soon-to-be $325 million man — was ready for the majors.

However, there were two other pitchers in the WBC I liked more than Yamamoto: Shohei Ohtani (duh), who struck out Los Angeles Angels teammate Mike Trout in the ninth inning to win the championship for Japan, and a young flamethrower named Roki Sasaki.

Ohtani, of course, was already a proven ace. Sasaki was not — and still isn't. At the time, I viewed him like a top-three pick in the MLB Draft. He threw a 97 to 103 mph fastball, a wipeout split-finger and showed flashes of a dominating slider. To me, he was a combination of Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom all rolled into one.

But let's not get confused here. Sasaki won't be coming to the United States with the same accomplishments of great Japanese pitchers such as Yu Darvish , Yamamoto or even Masahiro Tanaka. He'll arrive as a top prospect — think Gerrit Cole when he was drafted first overall out of UCLA in 2011 or Philadelphia Phillies phenom Andrew Painter right now.

Yes, Sasaki could win a Cy Young Award in the future — his ceiling is that high; his stuff is that intriguing — but he might not even win Rookie of the Year honors in 2025. Like any top prospect, he could have significant setbacks that dampen his promising outlook.

-shelf stuff. How would it translate to Major League Baseball?

When it comes to his free agency, the initial landscape is becoming more clear, based on what I'm hearing from major-league sources:

First, Sasaki won't be signing until after Jan. 15, when MLB 's new international signing period begins and each team's bonus pool will be replenished. Because of his age, Sasaki will be considered an international "amateur" free agent and must sign a minor-league deal with a bonus paid from the team's international pool. Teams' individual bonus pools are capped at around $7 million, with some variation, so even if a club commits its entire pool to Sasaki, there won't be enough monetary difference in the offers to make the bonus a significant factor in where he signs.

Second, although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki and some in the industry have touted them as the favorites to land him, I don't think that's the case. In fact, based on my conversations with league sources, including front-office decision-makers who are optimistic their chances of signing Sasaki are just as strong as any team, I think it's unlikely he'll end up with the Dodgers.

Sasaki won't be arbitration-eligible until the winter of 2028 and won't be eligible for MLB free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. So how will he and his agency, Wasserman, maximize his income between now and then?

It's simple: endorsements.

With that in mind, the Dodgers might not be an ideal landing spot for Sasaki. In Los Angeles, he'd be in the shadow of both Ohtani and Yamamoto, which would lessen his endorsement ceiling. Yamamoto has experienced this to a degree, as being on the same team as Ohtani has led to Kodai Senga of the New York Mets drawing more endorsement deals than Yamamoto, according to a league source. It only makes sense that Sasaki will consider this factor in making his decision.

With the Dodgers, Sasaki would also encounter the massive Japanese media presence — as high as 25 to 35 people — that regularly covers the team. While he'll surely be closely watched wherever he signs, that level of attention is not the best situation for a young, developing pitcher.

Sasaki needs pitching development, which does make the Dodgers a fit, but it also gives advantages to teams such as the San Diego Padres , Tampa Bay Rays , Mets and Atlanta Braves , who all have strong pitching development programs.

Another potential factor in the decision, and a plus for the Padres , is Sasaki's relationship with Darvish, who is said to be like a godfather to the young pitcher. Darvish is 38 years old and signed through the 2028 season. He could serve as a mentor for a few years as Sasaki develops, then pass the baton when Sasaki is ready. In the meantime, Sasaki could potentially maximize his endorsements in Japan, positioning himself as a rival to the Dodgers' Ohtani and Yamamoto rather than a teammate of theirs.

Although Sasaki is not fully formed, it's easy to see why teams are salivating. Yes, I view him as a top prospect, but I ranked him third last month in my top free agents list , behind only Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes and ahead of starting pitchers such as Max Fried and Blake Snell. He's that special and dominant. His resume, even at 23, is that impressive.

His velocity was down 2.7 mph this year but I'm told that's more about learning how to pitch than anything else. However, he has dealt with injuries including an oblique issue and what league sources told was a bout with shoulder fatigue . No matter where he signs, he'll need to be handled carefully, with a potential target of 120-130 innings in 2025, according to multiple industry sources from teams that are pursuing him.

It'll be fascinating to see which team he chooses. I'm just not buying the narrative that it'll be the Dodgers. Based on what I'm hearing, I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign Sasaki than the Dodgers — and several other teams will be in the mix.

We won't know the winner until Jan. 15 or later, but the Sasaki sweepstakes will be one of the most compelling storylines of the offseason.

.J. Preller be difference makers for Padres?

(Top photo: The Yomiuri Shimbun via Associated Press)