Will the Padres trade Juan Soto? Plus, how to hire a manager
This is a digital version of The Windup newsletter. Sign up here to receive this content directly in your inbox every morning.
We catch up with the pitching market, begrudgingly admit Joe West’s bona fides, and take a look at the mysterious process of hiring a manager. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup!
Will the Padres keep Juan Soto , or trade him?
If it seems like it was just last year that the Padres traded six players to the Washington Nationals for outfielder Juan Soto, it’s because it was just last year. The hope at the time was that the Padres could convince Soto and his agent Scott Boras to sign a long-term extension in San Diego, but even if he didn’t, it would all be worth it if their high-value collection of talent could win the first World Series in franchise history.
They, uh ... didn’t do that.
And now, after the team’s owner passed away , with 700 innings’ worth of pitchers hitting the free-agent market and a $50 million loan to help cover costs (including player payroll), it appears that the most logical move would be to trade Soto for some pitching.
Dennis Lin does an excellent job of explaining all the reasons a trade makes sense — and even lays out the various ways the Padres could attempt to keep him. But, as Lin admits, they all require a bit of a stretch. The logical conclusion: He’ll find himself elsewhere before spring training begins.
The Yankees are, of course, in the middle of the rumors — and given their need for outfielders, it makes sense (as does their interest in Cody Bellinger).
Soto isn’t the only big-name position player linked to trade rumors. As Ken notes here , Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette have also been a topic of conversation on the phone lines. Why? Well, as we’ve mentioned here before, the free-agent market is a bit slim this year. Teams looking to make a major upgrade might have to do so via trade.
Ken’s Notebook: Waiting on Cease, Mariners poised to strike ... maybe
From my latest notes column ...
New White Sox general manager Chris Getz is telling clubs he likely will wait to move on right-hander Dylan Cease until after the top free-agent starting pitchers sign, according to major-league sources briefed on the discussions.
Getz could act sooner if he gets an offer to his liking, perhaps from a team such as the Orioles or Reds , who are expected to refrain from the top of the free-agent market. But the advantage of waiting is obvious: Certain teams’ urgency will only increase if they miss out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and company. Some clubs face such an acute shortage, they might be in on Cease even if they sign a top free agent.
The Dodgers , for example, need multiple starters. The Cardinals , sources say, remain interested in Cease even after signing Sonny Gray , Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn . It would be uncharacteristic of the Reds and Orioles to jump the market, and their appetite for Cease is unlikely to diminish if the White Sox wait.
Cease, entering his age-28 season, is under club control for two more years, one more than fellow trade candidates Corbin Burnes , Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber . His combined salary in arbitration over the next two seasons likely will be in the $25 million range. Glasnow, entering his age-30 season, will earn $25 million alone in 2024.
The Mariners are another club that potentially could trade a starting pitcher, but they were in the same position at the trade deadline and held tight. The rotation is the team’s strength, reducing the strain on the bullpen and offense and giving the club a high competitive floor.
That said, the Mariners already subtracted two important offensive contributors, declining to give free-agent outfielder Teoscar Hernández a qualifying offer and trading third baseman Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks . Their goal is to find hitters who make better contact and draw more walks. And in a market thin on position players, the best way to do that probably is through a trade.
Only three Mariners position players — center fielder Julio Rodríguez , shortstop J.P. Crawford and catcher Cal Raleigh — appear entrenched for 2024. The team can upgrade in practically every other spot, then move pieces around. The subtractions of Hernández and Suárez created payroll flexibility for other moves.
Hall of Famer Joe West?
If you rolled your eyes reading the subhead, hear me out: I hated watching Joe West when I was younger. One of my fiercest and longest-held opinions is that those in positions of authority must not escalate conflicts. In an argument between a manager and an umpire, only one party has the right to toss the other out of the game, so in my view, it is indefensible for an umpire to escalate an argument. Toss ’em if they earn it, but don’t be the one who drives the conversation to that point.
In my estimation, Joe West was one of a handful of umpires who did that far too often. It drove me nuts.
But the longer I worked in the game, and the more managers and players I talked to, the more I heard a surprising (but consistent) refrain about the man who would eventually become the all-time leader in games worked: Off the field ... Joe’s a pretty great dude.
Humans are complicated, it turns out. Tyler Kepner’s story on West balances the dichotomy well. Did he get under people’s skin sometimes? Oh, definitely. But after reading the quotes from those who know him, his motivation becomes a bit more clear: He had a strong set of values, cared a lot about the game, and was honest, maybe to a fault. Whether I or anyone else liked his methods is immaterial — he did his job longer than anyone else and did it with integrity. I can respect that.
Next week, the Contemporary Baseball Committee will decide the fate of West and seven others. If he is inducted, he’ll become just the 11th umpire in the hall. You would never have convinced my teenage self that I would someday say these words (and mean them) but here they are: He definitely belongs there.
More Hall of Fame:
• Our series on Ford Frick nominees continues with Dan Shulman of Toronto, Joe Castiglione of Boston, Ernie Johnson Sr. of Atlanta and Tom Hamilton of Cleveland.
• Andre Dawson wants the hat on his plaque to be changed from an Expos cap to a Cubs one.
• For 50 years, John Adams banged his drum at baseball games in Cleveland. If you read one story today, make it this , about Adams’ history and how the drum made its way into the Hall of Fame.
• Jayson Stark makes the case for David Wright’s candidacy .
Handshakes and High Fives
When news broke that Sonny Gray had signed with the Cardinals , it was just before we hit send on Monday’s newsletter. We now have more analysis from that signing and the Tigers’ signing of Kenta Maeda .
In the meantime, Luis Severino has signed a one-year deal with the Mets, the Reds have signed veteran reliever Emilio Pagán and pitcher Nick Martinez, who is expected to start for Cincinnati , and 34-year-old Jason Heyward is returning to the Dodgers on a one-year deal.
If the Astros do start trading off a few pieces, asks Chandler Rome, could Framber Valdez be on the block ?
Jim Bowden takes a look at the top 100 remaining free agents and tries his hand at matchmaking, suggesting fits for all 30 teams .
Jackson Chourio , 19, has played only six games above Double A. Might the Brewers sign him to a long-term extension anyway?
:
The Bounce The Pulse | Full Time Prime Tire Until Saturday
(Top photo: Sean M. Haffey / )
