With minimal votes in, Zinke leading Tranel in western House race
Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke opened Tuesday night with an early lead in his rematch in the western congressional district race against Democratic challenger Monica Tranel, although results available at 10 p.m. remained too meager to declare a winner.
Voters were largely primed for this race, as neither candidate has shifted on any major policy issue since 2022.
Tranel's name recognition had increased over that time, while Zinke's first term in the new congressional district was marked by the Republican falling into step with more pragmatic party members while the right flank of the GOP upended the majority again and again.
This round, both candidates raised about $2 million more than their midterm campaigns.
After a relatively tame primary election, Zinke's campaign ramped up in the final months of the cycle with ads casting himself as a representative for all Montanans and attempting to tie Tranel to Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris. This was Zinke's fourth bid for Congress, his second for the newly drawn congressional district.
He also appeared this year at Montana events alongside some national headliners within the GOP, from former President Donald Trump to U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. He also made plenty of campaign stops in rural communities to hammer home points about federal infrastructure funding to aid local needs.
Tranel had aggressively attacked Zinke on the issue of housing affordability, zeroing in on his vacation rentals in Whitefish. Tranel made Montana's housing shortage the center of her campaign, urging voters to see the federal government as a partner in fixing an issue that's largely driven by local policy and market forces far from Washington, D.C.
Tranel had also focused on an appeal to moderate voters, vowing in an Oct. 30 campaign ad to "stand up to anyone, Republican, Democrat" and aired others that urged Congress to get tough on the southern border.
Zinke won the 2022 election by roughly 3 percentage points. In that matchup, he won 11 of the district's 16 counties, nearly all rural, and claimed all but one by 61% or more. Tranel, meanwhile, picked up more populated counties — Gallatin, Missoula and Butte Silver Bow, and lost by nearly 8,000 votes.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, noting that thin margin, targeted Montana's western house district for its "Red to Blue" program early on in the cycle.
Even as polls suggested the race was tightening in the final stretch of the election, Cook Political Report predicted Trump's return atop the ballot would give Zinke the greater advantage in ruby-red Montana.
Seaborn Larson has worked for the Montana State News Bureau since 2020. His past work includes local crime and courts reporting at the Missoulian and Great Falls Tribune, and daily news reporting at the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell.
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