With red turn in 2024, Tarrant remains ‘mini battleground state’ for Republicans, Democrats

Four years after Tarrant County narrowly supported Democratic President Joe Biden over then-incumbent President Donald Trump, Texas' largest conservative county once again supported the Republican candidate at the top of the ticket.

With all vote centers reporting, Trump earned 51.86% of the vote, while Vice President Kamala Harris had 46.66%. Speaking to an enthusiastic watch party crowd at the Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center in Grapevine on election night, Tarrant County Judge Tim O'Hare emphasized Biden's 2020 victory was the exception — not the rule.

"I've got news for the Democrats of Tarrant County," O'Hare, a former Tarrant County GOP chair, said. "Tarrant County is going red. We are going to be the strongest Republican county in the United States."

As the dust settles in the wake of a historic presidential election, Democrats' dreams of a blue Tarrant County appear far in the rearview mirror. But political science experts aren't convinced Tuesday's results mean Tarrant is locked into a conservative future on the national stage, especially when examining the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred.

While Cruz won a third term with a comfortable margin across Texas, he narrowly lost Tarrant County to Allred. With all Tarrant vote centers reporting, Allred earned 48.87% of the vote — just over 1,250 votes more than Cruz. It marked the second time Cruz lost the county after Democrat Beto O'Rourke's slim Tarrant victory in 2018.

Mark Hand, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington, said Tarrant will continue to look like its own "mini battleground state," even if the results from this election positioned Republicans solidly in power. Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, agreed.

"Trump won Tarrant County, but Allred and Cruz ran just about to a dead heat in Tarrant County," Wilson said. "So I think it's a bellwether county. It's a really important one to look to for electoral outcomes, but it's one clearly that either party, under the right circumstances, can now win."

Fears over economy, immigration dominate presidential contest

The Republican resurgence in Tarrant County, especially at the top of the ticket, was largely driven by concerns over the economy and immigration, Wilson said. Trump's willingness to discuss these issues in a way that appealed to blue collar voters contributed to his success, he added.

Cindy Snyder, a 65-year-old Republican who cast her ballot at Keller Town Hall on Election Day, said she voted for Trump even though she "wouldn't invite him into my home." She said the economy was better under Trump as inflation has prompted grocery costs and others to rise rapidly.

"I vote for candidates in every race — Democratic, Republican, independent — for what they can do for their constituents," she said. "I'm open enough to talk with Democrats and learn more about what they think. You don't know what you don't know."

Harris' and Allred's strategic error was focusing their campaigns too closely on the issues of reproductive rights, which polls show was not the top priority among most voters, Wilson said.

"(Democrats) never came up with a good way to talk about immigration and the economy, and those were their two biggest weaknesses," Wilson said. "Neither Allred nor Harris ever came up with a really good way to speak to those questions, and I think that really did hurt them."

Hand disagreed with Wilson's analysis, saying he doesn't believe Harris' campaign made any key errors that ultimately ruined her chances at winning.

"By all measures, the Harris campaign, which had to start really quickly, ran a pretty effective campaign," Hand said. "I think the question is not, 'What did they do wrong,' but 'Why didn't it work?'"

The answer to that question, he said, leads back to the fundamental issues in this year's presidential race. Those issues, from the average American's perspective, were the economy and inflation, as well as the general idea that America was on the wrong track as a country, Hand said.

Voters' concerns over those key issues, he said, likely helped enable them to ignore or simply not care about Trump's status as a convicted felon and alleged rapist, as well as his inflammatory rhetoric concerning women, people of color and the LGBTQ community.

James Gabriel, a construction worker who voted in Keller, said he supported Trump because he is a businessman and can help improve the economy. When it comes to divisive comments, Gabriel said, Trump may not be the best spokesman but he has the country's best interests at heart.

"I voted to get our country back on track," he said.

Tarrant County party chairs doubled down on messaging

Another of Trump's key strengths this election cycle, which was similar in 2016 and 2020, was his ability to toe the line between his real thoughts and personality versus the public persona he puts forth, Hand said. He compared Trump's persona to kayfabe, a term used in professional wrestling to describe the practice of pretending that staged events are real.

"He speaks more like a stand-up comedian than a traditional politician, and that seems to really resonate with people," Hand said. "That also gives him a lot of license, I think, to tell falsehoods, and for him to ride that line between whether or not he's telling a joke and being entertaining, or whether he is saying what he truly thinks."

Bo French, Tarrant County GOP chair, said via email that he believes people respond to "bold leadership," and Tarrant proved that.

"President Trump has shown courage under fire from actual assassins and from the uniparty that is scared of the reforms our country demands," French said. "I take that as an example of what we need to do in Tarrant County. We need to put our local governments back in their proper place by putting taxpayer interests first. A good start would be removing all the radical Marxist programs like DEI and the LGBT perversions from any taxpayer-funded entity."

As she waited for results during an election watch party at The Bearded Lady in Fort Worth's Near Southside, Crystal Gayden, Tarrant County Democratic Party chair, told the Report her party focused on mobilizing Democratic voters to turn out to the polls before Election Day.

"That's what our efforts have been: relying upon our base to show up and do what they needed to do, and touching those persons who may have checked out of politics, who may have been over politics, and just encouraging them, 'Hey, give us another opportunity. Get out and vote,'" Gayden said, noting that their messaging includes a focus on reproductive rights. "You know, all the things that everybody is saying, this is the most consequential election of our lifetime."

That message resonated with Charlotte Watson, a Fort Worth resident who said she voted for Harris at the Southside Community Center because "our democracy is really on the line this year." Watson, who is Black, said she felt civil rights have backtracked because of partisan politics.

"I haven't seen this much rhetoric before," she said. "I want us to be done with all the crazies out there. The rhetoric has been really hurtful."

Allred's Tarrant victory complicates 'red county' narrative

The fact that Cruz and Allred nearly tied in Tarrant illustrates that the county is still and will continue to be a swing and bellwether county, Wilson said.

"It says that there were some people who just have a personal aversion to Ted Cruz," Wilson said of Allred's victory.

That aversion could be the result of Cruz's flight to Cancun as millions of Texans experienced power outages amid the 2021 winter storm, the persona Cruz has carried in the Senate throughout his tenure so far, or even his initial delay in supporting Trump in 2016, Hand said. Those issues could be difficult for voters to ignore in a candidate like Cruz, he added, who lacks the personality and charisma of Trump that resonates with so many.

"Maybe it's not a story about Ted Cruz at all," Hand said. "Maybe it's just a story about the appeal of Donald Trump."

The Senate race results show that although hopes of turning Tarrant blue are dimming, chances at a purple county are still possible, Wilson and Hand both said.

Local Republican victories mirror national conservative wave

While Trump's victory was the story of the night, multiple local Republican victories further cemented conservative dominance in Tarrant.

In an interview with the Report during the Nov. 5 watch party at the Gaylord, O'Hare attributed Republicans' performance to a number of factors, including a focus on lower taxes, "law and order," and a pro-business climate.

"People respond to good conservative governance," O'Hare said. "People want to live in a safe place."

Republican Matt Krause, an attorney and former state representative representing northern Tarrant County, cruised to an easy victory over Democrat Laura Leeman in the Precinct 3 commissioner race. Krause will succeed longtime commissioner Gary Fickes, who announced he would retire last spring. His victory ensures a 3-2 Republican majority on the Tarrant County Commissioners Court, which has steadily trended further right since O'Hare's election in 2022.

Republican Sheriff Bill Waybourn had an easy path to reelection, defeating Democratic challenger Patrick Moses with around 54% of the vote. Waybourn's victory came despite increased concerns over deaths inside of the Tarrant County Jail. He has retained strong support from his local Republican base, including a slate of law enforcement leaders.

And Republican Rick Barnes, himself a former Tarrant County GOP chair, handily won the race for tax assessor-collector over Democratic opponent KC Chowdhury. Barnes joins a Tarrant Appraisal District board that itself has seen a hard shift to the right over the last year, and the incoming tax assessor-collector has already promised he will take action to further conservative priorities around lowering property taxes.

"Republicans had a great night in Texas, Republicans had a great night in Tarrant County, and in a lot of ways, that reflects the nationalization of politics," Hand said.

Many people likely voted straight ticket for Republicans, he continued, which bolstered local candidates who may not have otherwise generated a lot of voter attention.

While a good campaign can mean the difference between three to four percentage points, it's not enough for local Democrats to overcome the fundraising prowess of Texas Republicans. Hand said that will require Texas Democratic leaders finding financial behemoths that can inject money into local races across the state, similar to oil industry billionaires Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks .

"Even though Republicans won handily in Tarrant County, that top line race is pretty close," Hand said. "And that says to me that there are enough Democrats in Tarrant County for the Tarrant County Democratic Party to put together a ground game, if they can raise the money, in order to get themselves wide open."