With some models “showing enhanced moisture” moving into South Florida, impact to Miami uncertain as potential storm brews in Caribbean
For nearly two weeks, an "area of possible tropical development" has been percolating in the southern Caribbean like a simmering pot of water.
Now, with a 80% chance of development in the next seven days, that system is being joined by a smaller wave near Puerto Rico, with only a slight chance of development.
Hurricane experts now are weighing the probabilities of both systems connecting and joining forces.
So, where does that leave us as the final month of Hurricane Season begins?
"There's still a lot of uncertainty with it," said Chris Fisher, a meteorologist with NOAA's National Weather Service in Miami. "Depending on when something actually forms and how the models grab hold (of the track) ... just a lot of uncertainty."
Speaking Friday to Islander News, Fisher said, "As far as impacts to our area, some models are showing enhanced moisture being pulled up into South Florida ... which means the pattern of widely scattered showers through the Metro will likely continue."
As far as a hurricane developing, "It's certainly possible," he said, "but, at this point, we're not expecting much impact."
Cooler water surrounding Florida - although he said his maps were still showing 80-degree waters southwest of Key West - should lessen any impact if the storm did have eyes on the state.
Two things that could likely prevent a Florida landfall:
Only three other times since 1851 has a November storm struck Florida, but just two years ago, Hurricane Nicole spun up on November 7, making landfall three days later near Vero Beach with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph before crossing the state and making a second landfall northwest of Cedar Key.
The other two were: Hurricane Kate, which hit Mexico Beach with 100 mph winds, and the 1935 Miami Hurricane (Yankee Hurricane) that hit South Florida, also with 100 mph winds.
As far as any preparation at this point?
"The ensemble models are all over the place," Fisher said, "so it's hard to favor one area."
