Theathletic

Yankees ALDS roster projection: Jasson Domínguez or Alex Verdugo? Anthony Rizzo or Ben Rice?

M.Wright2 hr ago

New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has lots of decisions to make.

The Yankees will unveil their 26-man roster hours before Saturday's first pitch of the American League Division Series. Until then, Cashman, manager Aaron Boone and the club's top shot callers will decide who deserves a chance to continue to try to help New York win its first World Series since 2009.

But who will stand alongside Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole?

Here's our projection.

1. Gleyber Torres , 2B 2. Juan Soto , RF 3. Aaron Judge , CF 4. Austin Wells , C 5. Giancarlo Stanton , DH 6. Jazz Chisholm , 3B 7. Jasson Domínguez , LF 8. Ben Rice , 1B 9. Anthony Volpe , SS

Who's at first base? What about left field?

We project that Ben Rice will start at first base with Anthony Rizzo (fractured fingers) seemingly a strong candidate to land on the injured list. Rice, a natural catcher, has more defensive experience at first base than Oswaldo Cabrera and has a higher offensive ceiling. Plus, the Yankees probably won't want to lose Cabrera as a late-inning pinch-hitting option from the left side, especially if they want to avoid Anthony Volpe facing a tough righty in a tight spot. Neither Rice nor Cabrera are considered good defensively at first base. The Yankees will miss Rizzo's sure glove.

As for left field, the Yankees started Jasson Domínguez — their switch-hitting top prospect — at the position for the final five games of the regular season. It seems clear that they're using this time as a runway for Domínguez, a center fielder, to get up to speed in left. They know that Domínguez could change the game with one swing.

Another thing to keep in mind: Giancarlo Stanton loves the postseason. In 27 playoff games, he has 11 home runs and a .963 OPS. — Kuty

• Jose Trevino , C • Alex Verdugo , LF • Jon Berti , UTIL • Oswaldo Cabrera , UTIL • Duke Ellis , OF

There are two main questions for the Yankees' bench: Will they go with 14 position players? And, if so, does the organization prioritize having a pinch-running specialist over Trent Grisham , a former Gold Glove center fielder who has played sparingly?

We project that the Yankees will carry 14 position players because they shouldn't need to delve deep into their bullpen, given the scheduled off days in the Division Series. The Yankees have opted for a pure speed option off their bench in prior postseasons, with Tim Locastro , Tyler Wade , and Greg Allen being previous pinch-runner choices. That's why we believe Duke Ellis will make the roster; he has 62 stolen bases across multiple levels this season.

Cabrera could easily be penciled in as the team's starting first baseman, but the Yankees like having his versatility available on the bench. As mentioned above, the Yankees have sent a pinch hitter up for Volpe a couple of times in the past few weeks. Since the start of June, Volpe has been MLB 's second-worst hitter by wRC+. Cabrera could replace Volpe at shortstop if needed.

Verdugo makes the roster over Grisham as a backup outfielder. Boone has hinted that the Yankees could enter the postseason without naming a starting left fielder, meaning Verdugo would be an option to play. Domínguez has also looked shaky playing left field at Yankee Stadium. Having Verdugo on the bench as a defensive replacement, at a minimum, makes sense. — Kirschner

Starting rotation

• Gerrit Cole , RHP • Carlos Rodón , LHP • Luis Gil , RHP

Cole will be the Yankees' Game 1 choice. Did you know that he has a 4.86 ERA in six career Game 1 starts? Since joining the Yankees in 2020, he's got a 3.80 in four Game 1 starts.

It seems likely that Carlos Rodón will start Game 2 with Luis Gil taking the hill in Game 3. Rodón gets the nod in Game 2 for several reasons. First, this is why the Yankees are paying him $27 million a year through 2028. Second, he's been good lately with a 3.00 ERA over his past 13 starts. Third, Rodón has been much better at home (3.11 ERA, 14 starts) than he has been on the road (4.69 ERA, 18 starts) this year.

While there has been talk all season about how good Gil might be out of the bullpen, it seems unlikely that they would put him into a completely different role at such a crucial point of the season. Plus, Gil's 15-7 record and 3.50 ERA in 29 starts has him firmly in the conversation for American League Rookie of the Year. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. — Kuty

• Clarke Schmidt , RHP • Luke Weaver , RHP • Tommy Kahnle , RHP • Jake Cousins , RHP • Ian Hamilton , RHP • Clay Holmes , RHP • Tim Hill , LHP • Mark Leiter Jr. , RHP • Tim Mayza , LHP

Clarke Schmidt remains in the mix to be one of the Yankees' three ALDS starters. If the Yankees want dependability, there may not be a better option than Schmidt. Among all starters with at least 80 innings pitched this season, his 2.85 ERA is the 12th-best in MLB. However, as Kuty mentioned, changing Gil's role at this point may not be the best decision. Schmidt has previous bullpen experience and can be called upon to provide length if needed.

Outside of Schmidt, six relievers are locked into the roster: Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle, Ian Hamilton, Clay Holmes, Tim Hill, and Jake Cousins, assuming all goes well with his recovery this week from a pec injury. That leaves two spots open for a group that includes Mark Leiter Jr., Tim Mayza, Clayton Beeter and Marcus Stroman .

The Yankees could use a second left-hander out of their bullpen, making Mayza one of the choices here. Lefties have a .626 OPS against Mayza this season. Hill is the primary option, and Kahnle also excels against lefties, but both would preferably be saved for late, high-leverage innings.

This would leave the final spot between Stroman, Leiter and Beeter. Beeter seems like a long shot to make the roster. The Yankees would then choose between one of their main offseason additions in Stroman and their primary pitching addition at the trade deadline in Leiter. Neither option is particularly appealing.

Leiter has much better strikeout stuff than Stroman, who is tied for the worst strikeout percentage among all starters with at least 150 innings. It's difficult to project Stroman in any role out of the bullpen that isn't limited to mop-up work. While that is certainly valuable, the Yankees can't rely on blowouts. Because of Leiter's strikeout ability, there's at least a scenario where he could get critical outs. That's why he makes the roster over Stroman. — Kirschner

(Photo of Jasson Domínguez: Stephen Brashear / )

0 Comments
0