A Tampa Bay Times columnist on why the future of the Rays in the Tampa Bay area may be in jeopardy

Well, I think the county commission was already leaning toward not approving the bonds. Commissioner (Chris) Latvala said at the workshop Thursday morning, even if the Rays decided to play at BayCare Ballpark in Clearwater, that it wouldn't necessarily change his vote, but he was a definite no if they played in Tampa, as the Rays chose to do.

I understand the arguments made by commissioners, by the Clearwater Mayor Bruce Rector, that the Rays are getting a lot of money from the county of approximately $300 million to build a new stadium, and that it would benefit Clearwater and Pinellas County if they stayed on that side of the bay for the 2025 season. But the decision is not made in a vacuum.

There are a lot of factors involved, including making sure the Major League Baseball Players Association will approve of a temporary location, and the Rays decided that Steinbrenner Field was much closer to Major League-ready.

The Rays can basically make more seating available for their fans in Tampa, plus they're going to make more money doing it that way, they can sell more tickets for fixed seats, which is now a factor for them because they're losing money not being in a bigger stadium.

Which is a very long winded answer to your question, but no, I don't think going to Steinbrenner Field is going to be the straw that breaks this deal. I think it was already heading in that direction.

How do you think things like the bonds being mentioned for the new stadium will transition when new county commissioners take their positions?

The two new members have both expressed skepticism about the deal. I don't think they've declared that they will vote against it, but they have certainly made it appear as if they are not in favor of voting for the bond. Dave Eggers and Chris Latvala, who were no votes back in July when the deal was first proposed , are going to remain no votes. So, you know, from the outside looking in, it certainly appears that the Commission will, at the very least, agree to postpone the bond vote again on Tuesday .

If the funding models change, or either one of these groups want to go back to the drawing board, would they legally be able to do so?

Yes, I don't believe there are any penalties in the agreement to redevelop the land at Tropicana Field. I think the agreement just sort of goes away if certain criteria are not met, and we're getting very, very close to that point where the criteria is not going to be met. So the deal essentially goes away. It doesn't mean that they cannot come up with a new deal or just modify this old deal, but it would require approval from both the St Pete City Council and the County Commission and the Rays would have to, obviously, sign off on it as well.

From your perspective, what would be next for the Rays? Could this drive them out of St Petersburg or Pinellas County?

I think Major League Baseball in [the] Tampa Bay Area is at greater risk today than it's ever been. The Rays are essentially going to become free agents, free to go wherever they want, once the Use Agreement runs out at Tropicana Field. Sometime in the next few years, and certainly, if the St. Pete City Council decides not to repair Tropicana Field, which is still a question, sometime in the next few years, and possibly by next year, the Rays will be in a position where they can start looking outside of the Tampa Bay market.

kind of damage was done to Tropicana Field and its interior?

Well, I'd be going based on what I've been told, because they haven't let many people in there. Obviously, the roof is blown off. The entire roof has to be replaced. That is the bulk of the repairs.

Tropicana Field was built to be an indoor facility. So there is no drainage on the field, the concourses, the bleachers, in the concession areas, in the office areas, nor are any of those places waterproofed.

So, the argument to put over $50 million and potentially more into fixing the Tropicana roof and the damages inside the stadium is that St. Petersburg is required by its use agreement with the Rays to provide them with the stadium.

If they do not provide them with a stadium, two things are possible: One, the Rays can leave this market forever. And two, the Rays could try to seek damages from the city of St. Petersburg, because they are losing revenue by not having the stadium that St. Petersburg is supposed to provide.

So, I think the the sort of calculus is, would we rather have the team still here, you know, spend all of this money and still have the team playing in Tropicana for a few more years and hopefully keep the new stadium deal alive, or do we just blow everything up and potentially risk losing the Rays and still spend a lot of money because we are obligated to give them a stadium that we're now not providing?

So, it's looking very high risk?

The whole thing is just a nightmare. I mean, there is no good solution at all.

Nobody in their right mind would say, "Yeah, it's a great idea to spend $56 million and possibly more, to fix the stadium for, you know, two, maybe three years worth of baseball."

Where's the money for the repairs going to come from for Tropicana Field?

Well, the repairs are the responsibility of the city of St. Pete, that is in the current use agreement. What's interesting is the future use agreement for the proposed new stadium puts that onus on the team.

So the city does have insurance. They dropped their insurance coverage earlier this year, which turned out to be a horribly short-sighted decision.

They have $25 million in insurance, they have a $22 million deductible, which is based on, I believe 5% of the structure's value. And Tropicana Field, for insurance purposes, is valued at $440 million. Right off the bat, the city is going to have to pay $22 million and they get $25 [million] from insurance. That's $47 [million].

Then, the city is hoping that FEMA comes up with the rest of the money [approximately $9 million]. But if the repairs exceed that $56 million, and I'm hearing more and more that that's likely, you know, I don't know how much FEMA is going to step in. I don't even know if FEMA is going to step in at all.

What message do you have for Tampa Bay Rays fans?

It would be to enjoy the heck out of the 2025 season at Steinbrenner Field, because I don't know what the future holds.