Alaska Republicans lose two seats in state House, increasing odds of leadership switch

Voters line up at the polling site at Anchorage City Hall on Nov. 4, 2024. City Hall was one of the designated early voting sites in Alaska's largest city. It is not a designated site for Election Day voting. (Photo by Yereth Rosen/Alaska Beacon)

The Alaska House of Representatives will have two fewer Republicans, according to preliminary election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections after polls closed on Election Day.

As of 11:30 p.m. Tuesday , the House was poised to stand at 20 Republicans, 14 Democrats and six independents, increasing the odds that the incoming House will be controlled by a predominantly Democratic coalition instead of the current predominantly Republican majority.

Thousands of absentee and early votes remain to be counted in races across the state, meaning that current vote leaders could change as more ballots are added to the tally.

Additionally, if there are three or more candidates in a race and none have more than 50% of the vote, ranked choice voting will be used on Nov. 20 to determine a final winner.

Farthest north and farthest south see changes

In Ketchikan, independent Rep. Dan Ortiz did not run for reelection and is likely to be replaced by Republican Jeremy Bynum , who had 51.6% of the vote Tuesday night with 10 of 10 precincts reporting results. Some ballots cast in early voting or by mail have not been counted, so even results with all precincts reporting are subject to change.

That Republican gain is likely to be balanced with returns from the North Slope and Northwest Arctic Borough, where Republican-turned-independent Thomas Baker is likely to lose his election. Baker was appointed to the House as a Republican by Gov. Mike Dunleavy late last year but dropped his party affiliation after the legislative session ended.

With 3 of 20 precincts reporting, he had 12.5% of the vote, behind Democratic candidates Saima "Ikrik" Chase, with 12.2%, and Robyn "Niayuq" Burke, with 74.3%. If no candidate has at least 50% of the vote, the final winner will be chosen by ranked choice tabulation on Nov. 20.

Current minority coalition likely gains three seats

In Anchorage, Democratic candidate Ted Eischeid led Republican Rep. Stanley Wright by 111 votes out of 3,937 cast, with all precincts reporting in House District 22.

Elsewhere in Anchorage, Republican and former Rep. Chuck Kopp led Republican Rep. Craig Johnson by almost 24 percentage points at the end of Election Day. Kopp served in a multipartisan coalition majority that governed the House from 2019 through 2021 and has expressed an interest in restoring that coalition.

Also in Anchorage, nonpartisan candidate Ky Holland is on track to defeat Republican Lucy Bauer in a race to replace Rep. Laddie Shaw, who did not run for reelection. At the end of Election Day, Holland led Bauer by 6.4 percentage points.

Mainstream Republicans may have ousted Eastman

Hardline Republican Rep. David Eastman has frequently been at odds with the House's Republican leaders and isn't a member of the House majority. On Tuesday night, a majority-endorsed Republican challenger, Jubilee Underwood, held a 211-vote lead over Eastman out of 6,240 ballots counted so far.

If Underwood replaces Eastman, it likely gives a Republican-led House caucus an additional vote.

JBER race is too close to call

In House District 18, which covers Anchorage's Government Hill neighborhood and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Democratic Rep. Cliff Groh is leading Republican candidate David Nelson by 28 votes out of 2,703 counted by the end of Election Day.

Through Nov. 1, Alaskans had requested 1,805 absentee ballots in the district and returned 705. Only 569 absentees were included in the Election Day tally, indicating that results could change.

Nelson previously held the seat for one term. In 2022, Groh defeated Nelson with the support of second-choice votes from supporters of third-place Democratic candidate Lyn Franks.

Republicans replace Republicans

On the Kenai Peninsula, Republican Bill Elam is leading Republican John Hillyer, 51.3-47.3% in the race to replace Rep. Ben Carpenter, R-Nikiski. Carpenter declined to run for re-election and is seeking a Senate seat instead. He trails Republican Sen. Jesse Bjorkman in that race.

In Wasilla, Republican Rep. Jesse Sumner declined to run for re-election, withdrawing after the primary. A three-way race to choose his replacement is too close to call, with Republican Elexie Moore leading Republicans Steve Menard and Jessica Wright, with 6 of 7 precincts reporting results as of 11:30 p.m. Tuesday.

Moore had 37.5% of the vote to Menard's 36% and Wright's 25%, and the race is almost certain to be decided by ranked choice tabulation.

Mia Costello returns to the Legislature

Former state Representative and state Senator Mia Costello will be reelected to the state House, according to preliminary results Tuesday night. Costello, a Republican, led Democratic opponent Denny Wells by almost 8 percentage points with all precincts reporting results.

Wells lost by just seven votes to Republican Tom McKay in a 2022 state House race and had been set to face McKay again this year, but McKay stopped his campaign and was replaced by Costello.

Incumbents sweep in Fairbanks

All of Fairbanks' state House Representatives are on pace to be reelected, according to results at the end of Election Day.

With 4 of 4 precincts reporting, Democratic Rep. Maxine Dibert is leading Republican challenger Bart LeBon by 6.8 percentage points in House District 31. LeBon held the seat for four years but lost to Dibert in 2022 during a race that also featured a second Republican. LeBon challenged Dibert in a head-to-head contest this year.

In neighboring House District 32, Republican Rep. Will Stapp is leading Democratic challenger Gary Damron by 37.5 percentage points in a district that covers Fort Wainwright. Stapp is finishing his first term in office.

Republican Rep. Frank Tomaszewski, first elected in 2022, is likewise on track for reelection to a strongly Republican district covering Fox, Two Rivers and Salcha. At the end of Election Day, he held a 13.6 percentage-point lead over a more moderate Republican, Joy Beth Cottle.

In western Fairbanks, Democratic Rep. Ashley Carrick led Republican candidate Ruben McNeill by 7.7 percentage points at the end of Election Day. Carrick has represented the district since 2022.

A quarter of House seats were unopposed

Of the House's 40 members, 10 were unopposed in the general election, including one newcomer: