Arizona voters pass border security ballot measure. What happens next?
Proposition 314, the legislatively referred ballot measure that would criminalize unauthorized border crossings and allow Arizona and local law enforcement to arrest and deport migrants, easily passed as ongoing vote tallies continued to pad a sizeable "Yes" lead.
But arrests and prosecutions under the new state crimes established by the ballot measure are unlikely to begin anytime soon.
Even after election results become official, language in Proposition 314 bars its immediate implementation as U.S. federal courts determine whether states can enforce immigration laws. That question could end up before the Supreme Court.
Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen told The Arizona Republic that Republican Donald Trump's reelection lessened the immediate need for state laws such as the ones Arizona voters overwhelmingly backed under Proposition 314.
"Now with the new president, it's kind of irrelevant because we now have the federal government that's going to enforce the law," Petersen said. "As long as the federal government is enforcing the law, we don't need state government to be spending resources on this."
Although election results in Arizona are not yet final, voters appeared set to approve Proposition 314, also known as the Secure the Border Act, by a two-to-one margin.
In addition to criminalizing crossings and allowing local police to arrest migrants, the ballot measure also requires the verification of immigration status to access public benefits and stiffens penalties for smuggling fentanyl that results in another person's death.
The immigration enforcement provisions within Proposition 314 are based off Texas' Senate Bill 4, and the two share similar language. But the latter is blocked from taking effect as the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans determines whether the law violates the supremacy clause of the U.S. Constitution.
The U.S. Department of Justice sued Texas in January , claiming the federal government has sole jurisdiction for enforcing immigration laws. But under a Trump administration, the DOJ could amend or drop its legal challenge, paving the way for laws like Proposition 314 to take effect.
Petersen said they added language that allows Proposition 314 to take effect only if federal courts clear Texas' Senate Bill 4 to ensure that it's constitutional. But the Senate president added that lawmakers would have had to wait two more years before they had another chance to get a measure on the ballot, so this was their window of opportunity.
"Now we have this tool in case we ever needed, if the federal government ever fails to follow the law," he said. "Now we have something to fall back on and where we can protect our citizens."
Arizona voters shift right on immigration, border
The wide margin with which Proposition 314 passed indicates a rightward shift on immigration among Arizona voters. It mirrors nationwide attitudes that culminated with the reelection of Trump, who made immigration and the border a central campaign issue.
The "yes" vote maintained healthy leads in almost all of Arizona's 15 counties, according to unofficial results from the Secretary of State.
But others credit "misleading and misguided" ballot language plus the lengthy number of races and propositions on the ballot for contributing to the ballot question's approval.
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Reyna Montoya, the founder and CEO of Aliento, a group that assists undocumented and mixed-status families in Arizona, said both of those things made it harder to fight the measure. Aliento called or knocked on the doors of over 50,000 voters during the campaign cycle hoping to sway them to vote against Proposition 314.
"The most emphasized part in the description was about border security and fentanyl, kind of making a correlation that undocumented immigrants are the ones to blame for the fentanyl crisis which is disheartening," Montoya said.
Most fentanyl coming into the United States is smuggled by U.S. citizens crossing through ports of entry in Arizona, federal data shows.
Critics vow to defend immigrant communities
Opponents of Proposition 314 argued that allowing state and local law enforcement to arrest and deport migrants in Arizona will deepen mistrust between immigrants and police, create the potential for racial profiling, and cost taxpayers millions to detain, jail and remove migrants.
"Proposition 314 will not fix the flaws in our immigration system, nor 'secure the border' in the way its proponents have represented," said Noah Schramm, the border policy strategist for the American Civil Liberties Union of Arizona. The group said it was considering all legal options.
The Phoenix-based community group Living United for Change in Arizona, or LUCHA, knocked on more than 612,000 doors of Latino voters this election cycle. Executive director Alejandra Gomez called the approval of Proposition 314 was a dark moment moment for Arizona.
If implemented, the ballot measure would "bring racial profiling, family separations, and a climate of fear targeting Arizona's Latino and immigrant families," Gomez said. "Our communities, and our economy, will suffer. Immigrant-owned small businesses, a cornerstone of Arizona's economy, could be crushed."
Greisa Martinez Rosas, the executive director for United We Dream, an advocacy group for younger undocumented immigrants and Deferred Action recipients, said the ballot measure is meant to make immigrants feel unsafe in the communities they grew up and live in.
"It is intended to make our neighborhoods zones of harassment and intimidation, where our communities and our neighbors could be stopped, questioned, and deported," she said. "No matter what the circumstances are, our people refuse to be driven into the shadows."
Montoya said that regardless of the results and whether Proposition 314 takes effect, Aliento will continue their work advocating for undocumented and mixed-status families.
"We might've lost a battle," she said. "But we'll continue to push forward until we build a state that continues to honor the contributions of immigrants."
