Auerbach’s Top 10: Can Michigan’s big win put the Wolverines on top?
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Each Saturday night throughout the season, I’ve ranked the 10 best teams in the country. The order has fluctuated week to week based on new results, player availability and whatever else impacts this chaotic sport. This is obviously a subjective process, and I look forward to the arguments. The final spot each week goes to a team that may not actually be the 10th best team in the country but still deserves a little shine.
This is my last Top 10 of the season, as we only go through this exercise for the regular season. So, even if you disagree with my top four, this will work itself out over the conference championship weekend. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s wrap up rivalry weekend with my final, definitely-not-divisive, set of rankings.
Every Wolverines win had been scrutinized over the past few weeks, as Michigan’s two-plus seasons of success became wrapped up in an NCAA investigation into alleged advance scouting rules violations . But no one can question whether or not Michigan earned its 30-24 win against Ohio State or its place atop the Big Ten. The Wolverines fought hard for every yard and point in their third consecutive win over their hated rival, which for the second year in a row was a matchup of unbeaten title contenders.
Acting head coach Sherrone Moore dazzled in the biggest game of his coaching career, stepping in to replace the suspended Jim Harbaugh for the fourth time this season on Saturday. He went for it on fourth-and-short three times in the first half, plugged in sparsely used backup quarterback Alex Orji to kickstart the quarterback run game in the second half and called a halfback pass for Donovan Edwards . Each aggressive move was rewarded, and each choice stood in stark contrast to the decisions of a surprisingly conservative Ryan Day on the opposite sideline. Then, with the game on the line, Michigan pieced together a seven-minute, 13-play drive to bleed clock and set up a field goal that extended the Wolverines’ lead to six, forcing Ohio State to try to cover 81 yards in 60 seconds for a touchdown to win it. Buckeyes quarterback Kyle McCord threw his second costly interception, and the game was over.
I’m not sure Michigan’s offense is explosive enough to win a game or two in the College Football Playoff, but this team is certainly good enough to earn a berth and try. It is not just physical at the line of scrimmage. Its toughness showed up in the way it responded when the Buckeyes threw punches and when the players had to pull themselves together after Zak Zinter ’s serious leg injury in the third quarter. Blake Corum ran for a long touchdown on the next play from scrimmage.
Again, I don’t know what happens next or how this team will play with Harbaugh back on the sideline next Saturday. But the Wolverines are no fluke, and they are a win against Iowa away from a third consecutive trip to the CFP.
Georgia Tech made Saturday’s game more interesting than Georgia wanted it to be, but maybe that was to be expected, as the Bulldogs were missing multiple offensive starters. Carson Beck finished 13 of 20 for a season-low 175 passing yards, but running back Kendall Milton was dominant, racking up a career-high 156 rushing yards and with two touchdowns on the ground. That effort was needed, as Georgia’s defense wasn’t as stingy as it has been (especially against the run) and the Bulldogs had some uncharacteristic penalties.
After watching Alabama need a heroic fourth-and-goal conversion to stave off an upset bid by a mediocre Auburn team in the Iron Bowl, I’m not too overly concerned about Georgia next weekend in Atlanta. I’m sure the Crimson Tide will play far better than they did on Saturday — weird things happen in Jordan-Hare Stadium — but they have more flaws than we’re used to seeing from Nick Saban squads. As long as Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey are back and healthy, Georgia should be fine. And if the Bulldogs win, they could certainly land the top seed in the College Football Playoff, which would mean a Sugar Bowl trip for the semifinals. So even though I swapped Michigan and Georgia this week based on the Wolverines’ win over last week’s No. 3 team, I think the seeding for the four CFP spots is very much still up for grabs over the next week.
I’m not sure anybody is playing as well as Oregon, winner of six in a row with an average margin of victory of 26 points since its mid-October loss to Washington. The Ducks demolished Oregon State 31-7 in a game that was never in doubt. Oregon even had time to troll Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith with Michigan State in-game highlights on the stadium’s video board. (Smith was officially announced as the Spartans’ new head coach on Saturday.)
There’s not much left to say about Bo Nix and all he’s accomplished this season. This was the year. Bo Nix had improved so much under this (relatively) new offense. He was focused . He’s having fun . No one should be surprised that he’s a favorite — not just a dark horse — for the Heisman .
Oregon taking care of business sets up the Pac-12 Championship Game matchup we all wanted to see: a rematch with the still-unbeaten Huskies. I’m not surprised that the Ducks opened as favorites because I, too, think they are the better team despite the previous head-to-head result. Now’s the chance for Oregon to prove it and lock up a CFP berth.
The Huskies have a superior resume to Oregon, including that win over the Ducks, but they seem to be on the brink of losing every week. This will sort itself out next week: If the Huskies win in Las Vegas, they’ll be undefeated Pac-12 champions and a lock for the CFP. If they lose and Oregon is a one-loss Pac-12 champion that has beaten every team on its schedule, the Ducks would almost assuredly be in the four-team field themselves. So, Washington fans: Do not get too mad at me. You control your own destiny! Consider me a hater if that helps build up the chip on your shoulder!
Saturday’s Apple Cup was a bigger challenge than the Huskies might have expected. Washington State nearly pulled off a stunner in Seattle, and it took a gutsy fourth-and-1 call from the Huskies’ own 29-yard line — an end around to Rome Odunze , who broke free for 23 yards to help set up the game-winning field goal in a 24-21 win. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was not at his best, with a couple of questionable throws in the game’s final few minutes and a ho-hum stat line: 18 of 33 for 204 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. That type of performance probably won’t hurt Washington’s CFP chances, but it could certainly impact Penix’s Heisman case as he and other candidates make their last impressions.
The Seminoles’ hard-fought 24-15 win over in-state rival Florida might not look that impressive on paper, but it was a gritty and impressive win for a team fighting for a CFP berth without its heart-and-soul leader in veteran starting quarterback Jordan Travis , who is out for the season with a leg injury suffered last week. New starting quarterback Tate Rodemaker struggled mightily early on but responded well, starting with the drive late in the second quarter that ended with the first of three Trey Benson rushing touchdowns. Rodemaker also was hit hard in the head in the fourth quarter but returned to help ice the game. As Florida State head coach Mike Norvell said in his postgame on-field interview, these Seminoles “answer the bell whenever they get the opportunity.” This is a tough, cohesive team that isn’t going to throw in the towel with so much still at stake.
Louisville ’s loss to Kentucky may hurt the final resume of an ACC champion FSU just a bit, but I still firmly believe that the CFP selection committee would not leave out an undefeated ACC champion, even if it hasn’t been a world-beater without its regular starting quarterback. The system is not set up to leave out an unbeaten Power 5 champion in favor of a one-loss team. If the committee will ding FSU for not playing as well without Travis, it should show up in its seeding — not its selection.
The Buckeyes are not going to sneak into the CFP through the back door like they did last year because there are too many strong unbeaten and one-loss contenders with opportunities to win conference championships next week. That was a huge part of what made Saturday’s loss to Michigan so special: for the final time in the four-team CFP era, everything was on the line in The Game. There will likely be a lot of years in which both Michigan and Ohio State will be CFP-bound, win or lose, and it was nice to have a giant clash with the greatest of implications.
Well, it’s nice for Michigan since the Wolverines were victorious. Ohio State is staring down a very long offseason of questions regarding Ryan Day’s Michigan Problem. He’s lost three in a row to the Wolverines, and his existence in Columbus is not going to be a comfortable one over the next 364 days. (That is, if he stays at Ohio State. ... But that’s a topic for another column.)
Ohio State has made strides in its years-long attempt to beat Michigan. It is tougher and more physical defensively. It has explosive playmakers on offense. But McCord was not and is not The Guy to get the job done, and when Michigan wanted to control the game and the clock late in the fourth quarter, it was able to do so on the ground. Still, Ohio State outgained Michigan and averaged nearly a yard more per play than the Wolverines. Both defenses were phenomenal at times and made each other earn what they gained each play. There isn’t such a wide gap between these two rosters in the ways that matter like there was two years ago, and Michigan didn’t beat Ohio State the way it did last season, either. But it still wasn’t enough, even though this team is extremely talented and had a few really nice wins this season. None of that matters when you’re at Ohio State and can’t beat Michigan.
The Longhorns took control of Friday’s game against Texas Tech so handily that they had plenty of time to give their fans exactly what they wanted to see: Arch Manning make his collegiate debut , and the in-stadium video boards troll Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, who famously said he’d like to see the Red Raiders beat Texas this season with the Longhorns headed to the SEC in 2024. Of course, Texas did not lose and will indeed play for the Big 12 title game in its final season as a member of the conference. This is what Steve Sarkisian envisioned in the offseason, expectations he didn’t shy away from talking about. And a team that looked like it should be in the CFP mix based on the talent it had on paper ended up doing exactly what it set out to do. These Longhorns beat Alabama, a Week 2 head-to-head result that could still factor into Selection Sunday depending on how things play out over conference championship weekend.
Texas needs help to get one of the coveted four spots, though. The Longhorns will need to beat Oklahoma State , of course, but they probably also need Georgia and Michigan to win, coupled with a Florida State loss to Louisville. The winner of Washington/Oregon will likely land a spot, so this would be a way for Texas to nab the fourth.
Many hours have passed since the clock hit zero at the Iron Bowl, and I’m still not entirely sure what happened at the end of the game. I’ll defer to Nick Saban, who had an apt postgame quote on the 10-year anniversary of the Kick Six: “I guess if you are in this long enough, sometimes it goes against you in the last play of the game and sometimes you’re fortunate and it goes for you.”
That’s certainly true, and what it took for the Tide to win was a muffed Auburn punt, a bad snap and an illegal downfield pass by Jalen Milroe that set up a fourth-and-goal from the 31-yard line — and a Milroe deep ball that found Isaiah Bond in the left corner of the end zone to take the lead over Auburn with 32 seconds left, a play that immediately cemented both players in Iron Bowl lore forever.
The late-game heroics helped Alabama escape a game in which it made a lot of uncharacteristic mistakes. The defense was not great for much of the game. There were bad penalties, including Milroe’s illegal downfield pass that looked like it was going to cost him a chance at a comeback. So, yeah, things were dicey! But Alabama survived to stay alive in the CFP race. If the Tide upset the Dawgs, they’re in. It’s as simple as that.
The Tigers should hopefully be headed to a New Year’s Six bowl game after completing their best regular season in nearly a decade. It will be a well-deserved exclamation point to cap a fantastic season for one of my favorite surprise teams this season. I might not go as far as Eli Drinkwitz by making the case for them as America’s Team, though I do appreciate a good troll and Drinkwitz has quite possibly overtaken Lane Kiffin as college football’s best. Drinkwitz is right about Cody Schrader , who finished the regular season with two 200-yard rushing performances in Mizzou’s final three games, being one of the best players in the country. He does deserve more shine, just like quarterback Brady Cook deserves a ton of credit for getting better and remaining confident amid calls from within his own fan base for him to be benched early on. Oh, and the Tigers’ receivers are incredibly fun.
Basically, this team has been a blast to watch take a step forward this year. Mizzou played Georgia well and came out on the wrong end of a wild shootout with LSU and Heisman Trophy hopeful Jayden Daniels — both understandable losses and nothing to be ashamed of.
It is only fitting that the Hawkeyes earn my final No. 10 ranking of the year. I didn’t see this coming, and I’m not sure anyone outside of Iowa City did! Ten wins and the very last Big Ten West title, the second in three seasons for Kirk Ferentz. Four of Iowa’s victories came with 15 or fewer points, and the 216 total points this season is by far the lowest of any team with nine or more victories. In short, Iowa is winning with even less offense than it usually has — which isn’t much — and squeezing the absolute most out of its elite defense and (usually great) special teams. The Hawkeyes had just three first downs in the entire second half against Nebraska on Friday but somehow positioned themselves for a game-winning field goal from a backup kicker who hadn’t attempted a kick in a game in a year.
The 2023 version of Iowa might be Peak Iowa. Its offense ranks dead last in FBS in total offense and first downs per game, which is why offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz will be out of a job at the end of the season. With a plethora of injuries and very little reliability on the offensive side of the ball, the Hawkeyes have won games with defensive scoring, due to great field position from All-American punter Tory Taylor and, in multiple cases, essentially one explosive play and that’s it. It’s remarkable, but it is also very little margin for error. We’ll see what happens in the Big Ten title game against Michigan, but even if the Hawks are dealt a lopsided loss, it is still an incredible achievement that Ferentz and co. took this team this far.
(Top photo: Scott W. Grau / )
