Barclays playbook for the election: Stocks that win under Trump or Harris

Stocks ranging from L3Harris to Burlington could benefit from either a Trump or Harris victory this fall, according to Barclays. "In addition to the general unpredictability of U.S. politics, this election in particular is being closely watched given the divergent economic policies, depending on the results," analyst Terence Malone said in a Wednesday note. "With this all in mind, our base case ... is a divided government, with control of congress split and the Presidential race a toss up." Malone expects a second Donald Trump presidency to lead to a new global trade war, noting that the former president has promised heavy tariffs if he's elected, specifically 10% on all U.S. imports and between 50% and 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. A presidential win for Vice President Kamala Harris , meanwhile, would lead to less dramatic policy changes as most of her legislative proposals would be stymied in Congress, he said. The analyst highlighted several overweight-rated stocks the firm expects are best-positioned to benefit from either a Trump or Harris election victory. Take a look at some of the firm's favorite bets on a potential Trump win, which have an average market cap of about $81 billion with an average of roughly 19% potential upside to their respective price targets. MicroStrategy , the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, made the cut as a beneficiary under a possible Trump presidency. Trump has positioned himself against Harris as the pro-crypto presidential candidate , as he was a keynote speaker at July's Bitcoin Conference in Nashville and has said he would remove U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler if elected. The Trump family also announced a crypto venture, World Liberty Financial , this week. Bitcoin has been trading between a range of $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year, but Bernstein predicts the currency could hit new highs and top $80,000 if Trump is re-elected. (Bitcoin is currently trading at above $63,000.) As of Wednesday's close, shares of MicroStrategy have soared more than 110% this year, and Barclays analysts think the stock has roughly 10% more room to run over the next 12 months. The company on Wednesday announced the pricing of its offering of $875 million in 0.625% convertible senior notes due 2028, higher than its earlier plan to offer $700 million. Defense contractor L3Harris Technologies is another Trump election play. The stock, which is up about 9.1% this year, could gain another 15.4%, according to Barclay's price target. Both presidential candidates are expected to raise defense spending, but Trump has also placed an emphasis on an expanded national missile defense "dome" and increased defense budgets during his first tenure in the White House. UnitedHealth Group , the largest private insurer in the U.S., has been considered a Trump election beneficiary by several analysts , as the managed care company could benefit from an easing regulatory environment. The stock has had a strong run since mid-July after posting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue, which also increased investors' confidence in the company's outlook. The Trump-Biden presidential debate on June 27 also boosted shares. Shares are up 10.3% so far this year, and Barclays' $604 price target suggests about 4% potential upside. Here are the stocks Barclays thinks could benefit from a Harris win. They have an average market cap of about $41 billion with an average potential upside to their price target of 15%, according to Malone. Centene is a health care stock that could see about 27% upside over the next year, according to Barclays' 12-month price target. Shares are up just 2.8% this year. It's a potential beneficiary of a Harris election victory as the company is the largest Medicaid managed care organization , and the Democratic Party is generally expected to support the Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire next year. A Harris presidency could also bode well for off-price department store retailer Burlington , the firm forecasted. Burlington shares are up 39.4% this year as more inflation-weary consumers have flocked to discount retailers. Barclays' price target of $327 implies 20.6% potential upside. Burlington boasted a strong financial print in late August, as the retailer more than doubled its second-quarter profit and beat analyst expectations on earnings and revenue for the period. The company, which also increased its margin and earnings guidance for the full year, also benefited from fewer items on clearance and three dozen store openings in the quarter. Barclays also included homebuilder D.R. Horton among its list of stocks that could benefit from a Harris victory, and assigned it a 12-month price target that suggests almost 3% potential upside. Shares have added more than 27.5% year to date. The vice president has called for the construction of 3 million new homes, both for rent and for sale, over the next four years, and also proposed tax incentives and down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers.