Belgium vs Italy preview: Storylines, odds, prediction as Italians can clinch quarter-final berth
This one is beautifully poised, given how much is on the line for both teams. The host Belgium are five points adrift of France in second place with just two games left to play. Belgium simply have to win to stand any chance of securing a play-off place. Italy, on the other hand, are one point away from qualifying for the quarter-finals of the Nations League for the third year in a row. It's quite clear, however, that they have no intention of settling for a draw as they are determined to top the group after a dismal display at the summer's European Championships.
It has been a tough slog for Belgium since a comfortable win against Israel in their opener in this competition. They have lost twice to the French but managed a 2-2 draw with the Italians in Rome, a creditable result without question. Unfortunately for the hosts, they have not actually beaten Italy in a competitive fixture since way back in 1972. Indeed, even that draw comes with a degree of mitigation since it saw the Red Devils go 2-0 down before Lorenzo Pellegrini was sent off in the first half, and Belgium suddenly had a way back in a match that seemed lost.
Italy have been incredibly difficult to pin down in recent years. They failed to qualify for two successive World Cups, and yet, sandwiched between those unprecedented failures was a Euros triumph that saw Italy beat England at Wembley in the final. They have also proved at their best in this competition, having won 10 and drawn eight of their last 20 Nations League fixtures. A point here would mean a third successive Nations League quarter-final for the Azzurri, an impressive record, especially when compared with their struggles in other competitions in recent times.
Belgium will have to do without two of their biggest stars. Neither Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne, arguably the greatest player in the nation's history, nor Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois will be taking part. Italy, on the other hand, will be pretty much at full strength.
{p/p}Belgium vs Italy odds
Odds from Betfair and updated as of 6 p.m. GMT Wednesday.
Venue: Stade Roi Baudouin — Brussels Time:Streaming: Fubo (US only, try for free )
Form guide
Nations League only
Italy: 3-1-0, 10 points (1st in Group A2), W-D-W-W Belgium: 1-1-2, 4 points (3rd in Group A2), L-D-L-W
Match prediction
Belgium 1-3 Italy
Despite Belgium having everything on the line in this clash, it's hard to look past the two teams' respective forms. Italy seem to save their best for this competition and will be looking to win the game and top the group.
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(Photo of Riccardo Calafiori: Emmanuele Ciancaglini / )
