Bengals vs. Chargers predictions, picks and best bets: Backing the desperate Bengals?

Two teams with playoff aspirations embark on a pivotal part of their journeys when the Los Angeles Chargers take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football.

Both teams are three games behind the leader in their divisions, so earning a Wild Card berth is the most likely path to the postseason. That means Sunday's game at SoFi Stadium could be a tiebreaker down the road. It doesn't get much more important than that.

Winners of three straight, the Chargers (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) are 1.5-point favorites over the Bengals (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS). Cincinnati has been up and down all season and will be playing this game with extra rest since it last played on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. Here my expert Bengals vs. Chargers predictions and best bets for NFL Week 11.

Bengals vs. Chargers predictions and best bets for NFL Week 11

Bengals +1.5 (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Over 47.5 points (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Justin Herbert Over 225.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365 Sportsbook)

Since the Bengals lost their first three games, they have been doing just enough to stay afloat in the race for the playoffs. They beat Carolina to avoid falling to a disastrous 0-4. They won consecutive road games against the Giants and Browns to maintain their belief. They beat the Raiders to avoid a crippling loss at home.

Sunday's matchup feels like the same type of opportunity. Since the Bengals are so far behind the AFC's top teams, they'll need to win some tiebreakers to get into the postseason. This game against the Chargers and a future game against the Broncos are important in their quest to qualify.

This is the type of game in which quarterback Joe Burrow plays his best. Burrow has led an explosive offense without WR Tee Higgins (quadriceps injury) in the lineup, and there is a chance he will return this week.

That's a boost for more points being scored but only one reason we like the Over. Only one Chargers game has had more than 39 points, and that came last week then the Titans scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute.

Since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers have increased their passing game production and QB Justin Herbert has been great. That has been masked because the Chargers' offense has not been pushed or has missed key players.

That won't be the case on Sunday with the Bengals boasting one of the best offenses in the league. They will keep up, and the Chargers will be forced to keep scoring.

If the Chargers keep their foot down on offense, Herbert will soar over his passing yardage prop. He has at least 237 passing yards in four of the last five games despite the Chargers backing off the gas. The Bengals routinely give up at least this many passing yards. That trend will continue on Sunday.

Bengals vs. Chargers moneyline odds analysis Why Los Angeles could win as the favorite Best odds: -120 at Caesars Sportsbook

The Bengals haven't stopped many offenses this season. Why would that change now? Herbert has been great during this run of four wins in five games. There is no reason to think he won't be great again on Sunday.

The Chargers' running game will improve, too, with the addition of Gus Edwards. Now J.K. Dobbins won't have to shoulder a majority of the carries. That means both players will be fresh later in the game, which is critical if the Chargers have the lead and want to bleed the clock.

Why Cincinnati could win as the underdogBest odds: +110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Bet against Joe Burrow at your peril. The Cincinnati QB has been awesome all season, and you can expect another great primetime performance on Sunday Night Football.

The defense has rightly received criticism but hasn't been as bad over the last five weeks. The Bengals rank 28th in Defensive EPA (Expected Points Added) per play overall. Considering only the past five weeks, they rank 17th.

Since the terrible start, Cincinnati hasn't been as bad on defense as long as they don't face the powerful Ravens. The Chargers' offense is capable, but the Bengals have a better chance of being competitive this weekend.