Big Ten title game odds: Michigan favored, and there’s a low total

Michigan will play Iowa in the Big Ten championship game for the second time in three years, and oddsmakers are expecting another lopsided affair.

The third-ranked Wolverines enter Saturday’s game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (8 p.m., FOX) as nearly four-touchdown favorites, suggesting Michigan should come home with its third straight conference championship.

Popular sportsbooks DraftKings and FanDuel both list Michigan as 22 1/2-point favorites, while Caesars, PointsBet and BetRivers have Michigan -23. BetMGM has Michigan -23 1/2.

Those numbers are inflated from previous meetings, including a 2022 game in Iowa City that saw Michigan win 27-14 as a 10 1/2-point favorite and the 2021 Big Ten championship game in Indy that saw the Wolverines run away with a 42-3 win as a 12-point favorite.

Michigan comes in on another high as the Big Ten East Division champion, completing the regular season with a 12-0 record and win over arch-rival Ohio State. Six of those wins came without their head coach, Jim Harbaugh, on the sideline. He is expected back for Saturday’s game.

More: ‘Three more to go.’ Michigan seeking more than just win over Ohio State

Meanwhile, Iowa (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten) captured the Big Ten West crown last week following a win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes have done it the last couple of months without starting quarterback Cade McNamara and tight end Erick All, a pair of Michigan transfers who were expected to bolster the Iowa offense.

Instead, Kirk Ferentz’ team has largely piled up the wins thanks to a top-10 defense and elite special teams unit. Iowa is 6-5-1 against the spread this season.

The total for Saturday’s game is set at 35 1/2 points, a staggeringly low number for a Michigan team that ranks 11th nationally in scoring offense (38.3 points per game). It’s the lowest point total for a game involving the Wolverines since at least 2018.

Of note: Ten of Iowa’s 12 games this season have gone under the closing total, including a win Friday over Nebraska that was set at 25 1/2.