Iowa football readies for ‘big challenge’ in Big Ten title game vs. Michigan

IOWA CITY, Iowa — The first Big Ten championship lines rolled out late Saturday night and early Sunday and to no one’s surprise, Michigan is the betting favorite over Iowa . But several wagering outlets opened at 23 1⁄2 points, which is far beyond the previous Big Ten championship high of 18 of Ohio State over Northwestern in 2020.

That day, the Wildcats covered but the Buckeyes won by 12. Whether Michigan is considered better than that version of Ohio State or these Hawkeyes are weaker than those Wildcats matters little. But months of speculation have become a betting reality. Everyone expects the No. 3-ranked Wolverines (12-0, 9-0) to pulverize No. 17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2) this Saturday night in Indianapolis.

That’s the challenge Kirk Ferentz welcomes Monday morning when he meets with his players, who no doubt have heard and tried to ignore the rhetoric. In a quarter-century’s worth of tall orders, this might rank as the greatest task the dean of college football coaches will face. But it’s not uncommon terrain, either.

“You discuss every game at the beginning of the week, no question about it, and try to set the tone for what we’re looking at,” Ferentz said Sunday. “Whether it’s a championship game — 25 years, we’ve been underdogs an awful lot. So it’s not like an unfamiliar territory for us.

“All we try to do at the beginning of the week is lay out the challenges, the things we’re going to have to do well to have a chance to be successful. And then start that process of trying to go about having a good week of preparation. And then, most importantly, you’ve got to show up and compete.”

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There’s plenty of history Ferentz can lean on when discussing this matchup, such as Iowa beating Michigan five of six times from 2009 through 2016. In the 10-year period of East and West divisions, the Hawkeyes are the only West team to have beaten every East squad. In reality, those talking points are merely anecdotes. History provides no edge except if it dispels any intimidation during preparation. The only way Iowa competes is to battle play by play and possession by possession. No big plays allowed, no missed opportunities.

“My guess is we’re going to have to execute,” Ferentz said. “Anything that might have opened itself up, we’d better be on top of it because there’s not going to be a lot open.

“This is a really good football team. They’re very well-coached. So if any little windows of opportunity do show up, we’ve got to be there to take advantage of them. And then we can’t give them anything easy. And that’s a challenge.”

When the teams met for the Big Ten title two years ago, Iowa missed on a wide-open halfback option pass while Michigan completed its version for a 75-yard touchdown pass. It was a physical, competitive contest for two-plus quarters, but those two plays altered the game’s competitive trajectory. Iowa tried to catch up, while Michigan’s dominant edge rushers annihilated the Hawkeyes’ passing game.

In their two most recent regular-season encounters, Iowa squandered six trips inside the Michigan 36-yard line to lose 10-3 in 2019. Last year at Kinnick Stadium, the Wolverines had a bead on everything Iowa’s offense hoped to do. The Hawkeyes gained just 147 yards and were scoreless through three quarters in a 27-14 Michigan win.

But in those three meetings — all Michigan victories — there were avenues to success for Iowa. The teams were even in just about every way in 2019. Last year was the first time since 2005 the Wolverines won in Kinnick Stadium. At the 2021 championship, Michigan was an 11-point favorite but had not claimed the Big Ten title since 2004. This time, the Wolverines not only are considered among the national favorites to win the College Football Playoff, but the Hawkeyes appear more vulnerable than in those previous matchups.

In nearly every statistical category, the Wolverines are ranked in the Big Ten’s top three. They’re both No. 1 in scoring offense (37.6) and scoring defense (10.3). They’re second in both total offense (394.5 yards per game) and total defense (246.0). They have allowed the fewest sacks, boast the best completion percentage and have the fewest penalty yards.

Iowa isn’t far behind in just about every defensive category. But offensively, that is another story. The Hawkeyes’ output of 247.3 yards per game is the lowest in the Big Ten since before Ferentz took over at Iowa in 1999. Iowa ranks 13th in scoring offense (18 points per game) and last in passing yards per game (123.9).

Only once has Iowa scored more than 30 points in a game. Only once has Michigan scored less than 30 points in a game.

Injuries have stunted the Iowa offense significantly. Original starter Cade McNamara — who quarterbacked Michigan past Iowa in 2021 — tore his left ACL in the season’s fifth game. Tight end Erick All , a Michigan transfer who caught a touchdown pass from McNamara in the 2021 title game, suffered his own ACL injury in the seventh game. Tight end Luke Lachey broke his leg in the third game and has yet to return. Both Lachey and All were considered among the nation’s best at the position.

Still, the Hawkeyes have battled. They’re 5-1 in one-score games with the only loss coming when All-American candidate Cooper DeJean returned a punt 54 yards for a touchdown, but it was overturned because of a controversial invalid fair catch signal on replay. Iowa has nine 100-yard rushing games, which matches the program’s high since 2018. The defense has allowed three touchdowns in the last six games. If Iowa’s players are not flashy, they’re certainly gritty.

“Our guys have been just so dedicated,” Ferentz said. “What makes this team maybe a little different is if you take into consideration we’ve had an inordinate amount of things happen that you could never predict, and injuries to key players. Just start there: most recently, Cooper DeJean (broken leg) two weeks ago.

“I’ve never been through a year where I’ve seen so many bumps in the road, yet the players just show up and somehow, someway, we find a way to win. Last Friday, on the last play of the game, basically. So it’s been really gratifying. But we know we’ve got a big challenge this week in front of us.”

(Photo: Reese Strickland / USA Today)