Bill Oram: Jonathan Smith’s departure is an existential threat to Oregon State

The thing is, Oregon State had the guy who would have stayed.

Jonathan Smith never struck you as the kind of college football coach who was driven by money or national exposure. Who was thirsting for bigger, brighter and better.

He was a legend in Corvallis as a player, was on his way to becoming one as a coach and, not that you really ever know these things from the outside, seemed genuinely content.

So, consider just how grim Oregon State’s future must have looked to Smith to convince him to leave his alma mater for Michigan State.

Is the job in East Lansing really that appealing of an opportunity?

Only as a matter of self-preservation.

The Beavers have been completely upended by conference realignment. They don’t have a football conference or schedule. The program’s budget is about to be slashed. Keeping Smith, to say nothing of being able to afford high-end assistant coaches, was always going to be difficult.

But it felt like as long as he was there, the Beavers would find a way to stay the course.

He turned around a program that had gone 1-11 before his arrival to a conference power in six seasons. The Beavers won 10 games last season and were in the mix for the Pac-12 championship for most of this season.

The Beavers’ 31-7 loss at rival Oregon on Friday night marked a bitter bookend to Smith’s tenure. A Black Friday, indeed.

With rumors swirling about Smith’s imminent departure, the Ducks game operations staff played the live feed of the Michigan State game against Penn State on the Autzen Stadium screen during pregame warmups.

Oregon trolled, then rolled.

And despite efforts after the game to insist that no decisions had been made about Michigan State , his face betrayed him. His upbeat mannerisms were out of sync with the tone of his voice. His voice cracked a couple of times. It was clear then that he was gone.

There are hundreds of college coaches who would have ditched Oregon State for a middle tier Big Ten program like Michigan State, viewing it as an incremental step up the coaching ladder.

But Smith doesn’t make that move unless his hand is forced.

If Smith could have been selective, you’d have to think he would have waited for a more natural fit. He must not have felt like he had that luxury. That he was at risk of getting left behind, too.

Oregon State’s lack of progress on essential matters torpedoed their chances of hanging onto Smith, their great stabilizer.

The Beavers were stonewalled by realignment and tied up in court with the Pac-12 , unable to map out a clear future for the athletic department. It remains unknown whether the Beavers will land in the Mountain West, try to Frankenstein together a new Pac-12 with Washington State — sort of like Mike Love’s Beach Boys — or something else entirely.

Make no mistake, Smith’s departure feels like an existential threat to Oregon State.

The Beavers are now at risk of sliding back into college football purgatory. An exodus of players in the transfer portal is likely.

Star running back Damien Martinez told The Oregonian/OregonLive last week that he planned to return to Oregon State next season and has double down . But what about Aidan Chiles? Does the freshman quarterback follow Smith to Michigan State? How many of Smith’s assistants trade in orange for green?

MORE: Oregon State running back Damien Martinez: ‘I do plan to come back’

Replacing the coach will not be easy, in part because many top candidates will be seeking answers to the same questions that led Smith to depart. And most coaches are likely to view this job like a punt bouncing on the turf: as a stay away.

San Jose State coach Brent Brennan, a former Beavers assistant, will surely be in the mix. Could Beavers offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren get a look? A rising Big Sky Conference star like Idaho’s Jason Eck or Montana State’s Brent Vigen?

They may need to take a chance on someone who excels at recruiting but has never had a head coaching job. Ducks receivers coach Junior Adams?

Whoever takes on the challenge of saving Oregon State will have to have a clear-eyed view of the situation. Will need to be a uniter. And will need to be able to sell that the Beavers best days didn’t disappear when Smith decamped for Michigan State.

That might be the toughest job in the country.

The Spartans should be thrilled to have Smith. He brings instant credibility to a university that has been repeatedly rocked by scandal and limped to a 4-8 finish after firing Mel Tucker for an inappropriate relationship. Last month, the Spartans were forced to apologize for displaying Hitler on their video board before a game against Michigan.

Michigan State badly needs an adult in the room, and Smith is that.

Beaver fans can tell you all about the ways he rebuilt their program from the ground up, from the two-win season of 2018, to program-defining wins over USC, Oregon and Utah. To three straight bowl appearances and the program’s first win over an SEC school.

As a diminutive quarterback, a former walk-on, Smith led the Beavers to their biggest win in school history, the 2001 Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame. As their coach, he put them in position to compete for conference championships.

The most concerning thing about Smith’s departure is not that he chose to leave his alma mater. It’s that he must have felt like he had no choice.

And that paints a picture for Oregon State’s future that is both grim and urgent.

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