Bills observations: Josh Allen’s vintage day vs. Eagles deserves much better
The Buffalo Bills entered their matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles as underdogs. As records go, not many gave the Bills a chance to win the game on the road. The odds slowly shifted, though.
The 6-5 Bills, desperately in need of a victory to get themselves back into the AFC’s playoff picture, had the NFC champion Eagles on the ropes. Then, one Eagles touchdown happened in the mid-third quarter.
Then another on the following drive. Another on the drive after that. Two drives later, a 59-yard field goal forced overtime . And then, the Eagles scored the game-winning touchdown in overtime. That’s five scoring drives out of six Eagles possessions and 30 points allowed to end the game.
As some Bills players in the locker room called the 37-34 loss , it’s a true gut punch after leading for most of the day.
“We understand where we’re at, so we’ve got to get things going,” quarterback Josh Allen said after the game.
Now at 6-6, and dropping to 10th in the AFC standings , the Bills must attempt to pick up the pieces, with a full two weeks to do so ahead of their next game.
Allen’s vintage day deserved much, much better
When the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey , one of their most significant intentions likely was to ignite a spark within their franchise quarterback. Allen had been in a slump for a month and a half, and even within the context of the Bills having some offensive success against Tampa Bay one month ago, the offense was still brutally inconsistent Once the move was made, the light went on for Allen. As the All-22 from the Jets game showed , it was a slow start for Allen in the first two series. But from the third series on, the quarterback the Bills invested their entire operation into returned. Not only did it continue on Sunday against the Eagles, but Allen added it.
Allen went into true heartbreaker mode against one of the league’s most vaunted teams and defenses. Almost every time the Eagles’ defense felt close to a stop, Allen usually had the answer. That innate quality of Allen’s on third downs, to make opposing teams and fan bases wonder, ‘What do we have to do to stop that guy?!’ was back. When interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady put the ball in Allen’s hands on third downs, the results were unbelievable. When tasked with either a dropback or a quarterback-keeper run, Allen converted a whopping 68.4 percent of third downs, 13 of 19 chances in total. On those 19 chances, the Bills averaged an outstanding 8.8 yards per play. Of their 13 conversions, eight faced at least third-and-6, if not more.
Allen usually always had the answer when the Eagles thought they had him pinned. He made people miss in the open field. He opened up targets downfield. He looked poised in the pocket and in tune with everything happening around him. That’s the type of MVP performance the Bills have been waiting to see, that Allen knew he was capable of all along, and it went all for naught. Did he make one mistake with the interception that set the Eagles up with a shortened field? Yes. But it was only one misstep in a game featuring one heroic play after another from Allen. Just the same as it was in Kansas City in 2021, Allen did almost everything he could to will their team to victory. Thirty-four points should be good enough against any team.
But the Bills’ defense, once the team’s calling card, let them down. Nearly every drive in the second half yielded the same result. The Eagles grew confidence, threatened to steal the game, and were ultimately successful. This subpar defensive performance late in games is not a new thing for these 2023 Bills. According to TruMedia, when tied or winning by one score in the fourth quarter or overtime this season, the Bills rank a horrendous 31st in both EPA and third-down conversion rate. That second-worst mark in the league trails only the Los Angeles Chargers , without counting their Sunday night game against the Baltimore Ravens .
Of course, the defense deserves credit for limiting the Eagles in the first half. But in allowing five scoring drives and 30 points in only six total drives, the Bills hemorrhaged 8 yards per play. The Bills did lose the trio of linebacker Matt Milano, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones and cornerback Tre’Davious White , but they reinvested in the defense by sending out a good compensation package for cornerback Rasul Douglas and giving defensive tackle Linval Joseph a sizable salary for a player in his mid-30s. The Bills didn’t suffer any injuries in this game, but both their run defense and the play of their once-prolific safety duo let them down when they needed it most. They stopped the Eagles one time over those six drives, but asking for one more isn’t too much, even against one of the best offenses in the NFL .
Sean McDermott’s defense squandered a gem of an Allen performance. It’s the showing the Bills have been hoping for all along, to push them into the 30-point plus mark and pick up the defense when it isn’t at its best. Allen really did enough to get the Bills 37 points — in regulation mind you. Usually steady kicker Tyler Bass blew two other chances for points.
It’s just yet another example of why this 2023 season may ultimately go down as the one that got away. The Bills had all the talent they could want on their roster heading into the season, but in several games when it came down to needing a play or two, they have been woefully behind.
Their playoff odds are slipping, and now they’ll need at least three victories — if not four — of their final five games against the Chiefs , Cowboys , Chargers, Patriots and Dolphins just to think about getting in the postseason. It’s not over yet, but wasted opportunities like Sunday’s — especially with the way the quarterback played — is just another reason this season under McDermott has been different than the others. And not in a good way.
The logic to benching Cook doesn’t hold up
On the Bills’ second drive of the game, they set the Eagles up beautifully for a matchup they wanted. James Cook was lined up against linebacker Nicholas Morrow one-on-one, and Cook was streaking down the left sideline without any other defender close. Cook had a step, Allen spotted him and lofted up a perfect touch pass to hit the running back in stride. It had all the makings of a touchdown and another piece of Allen’s prolific day. We all know what happened next. Cook dropped it and was in the doghouse once again.
Over the next 15 snaps and the entire next offensive series, Cook did not touch the field. He watched as Latavius Murray took 14 straight snaps, and even Ty Johnson got in for one. On that Johnson play, Cook actually ran onto the field during the commercial break, only for the Bills to call him off for that first down attempt. Finally, on the next play, Cook returned to the field where the Bills promptly threw him two straight passes. It’s yet another confusing chapter in how they’re handling Cook — a player who does not have a long history of ball security issues. But for some reason, when Cook makes a mistake, the hook is a quick one. The Bills often turn to Murray in those cases, but in doing so, they actively make themselves worse and less dynamic to defend. The running back reps are usually handled by running backs coach Kelly Skipper, though it’s unclear if it’s Skipper keeping Cook off the field, or if it’s McDermott or Brady telling Skipper that they’ll be going with Murray for a bit.
Bills RB James Cook has not gotten an offensive snap since his dropped pass that quite possibly would have been a TD.Latavius Murray has played 14 straight snaps.
— Joe Buscaglia November 26, 2023
The benefits of sending Cook a message mid-game are grossly outweighed by their sacrifices to take their best dual-threat running back off the field.
On top of that, Cook isn’t even the only one making multiple errors. It stands to reason players like Gabe Davis , Dalton Kincaid and even Murray should be treated the same way when they have those mental errors. It wasn’t as much of a case for Davis against the Eagles, but both Kincaid and Murray registered official drops on Sunday and didn’t miss any time. But it’s not about benching someone right when they make an error, it’s really all about keeping their best players on the field at all times rather than utilizing self-imposed bans. The justification for benching a dynamic asset rings a bit hollow, especially when each play in a close contest like this one could be the difference between a win or a loss.
Oliver’s insane usage
Defensive tackle Ed Oliver has been one of the team’s best players all season, and against the Eagles, they showed just how much they felt they couldn’t live without him. Including penalties, the Eagles ran 70 plays throughout the game. By my unofficial count, Oliver was on the field for 89 percent of those snaps — 62 in total. For a linebacker, cornerback or safety, that’s not much. But the Bills built their entire defensive line philosophy out of having a good rotation to keep players fresh.
In the past, a big usage day for a defensive tackle was, at most, 70 percent, and even that was usually rare with the Bills. However, the drop-off from Oliver to the next best defensive tackle is so extreme that they couldn’t do much else but play him almost every single snap. The other three defensive tackles — Jordan Phillips , Joseph and Tim Settle — combined for only three snaps more (65) than Oliver. He is quickly turning into the player they can least afford to lose on defense.
Bills MVP: QB Josh Allen – Allen accounted for 420 total yards and four touchdowns. Enough said.
Bills LVP: The entire second-half defense –
Up Next: The Bills have their bye in Week 13, and resume their schedule on the road against the 8-3 Chiefs.
(Photo of Josh Allen: Kevin Sabitus / )
