Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty Eyes Historic Heisman Run with Historic Rushing Pace

The numbers Boise State's Ashton Jeanty produced through the first two-thirds of the regular season already place him among the most prolific running backs in recent vintage. The numbers he needs to hit to become the first player since 1991 to win the Heisman Trophy representing a program outside of the power conferences are astronomical.

Jeanty's production through the first half of the season drew comparisons to Barry Sanders' borderline mythic performance at Oklahoma State in 1988—and the parallels were not unfounded. However, it's imperative for Jeanty's Heisman candidacy to untether comparisons of his performance from that of Sanders.

Jeanty is on pace for one of the greatest seasons for a running back in college football history; Sanders' 1988 campaign is the single greatest. Setting the best season ever as the benchmark sets Jeanty up for failure in the eyes of the public.

And it's public perception that determines the Heisman, after all. College football's top individual award has no specific criteria, spoken or unspoken, that ensures a pathway to victory.

There are some figures that, if Jeanty can reach by the time the Heisman is awarded in December, may not win him the award but should give him the greatest possible chance—even if his pursuit of Sanders' records falls short.

Jeanty has rushed for 1,525 yards in just eight games, about 250 more than the nation's next-most productive ball carrier—Iowa's Kaleb Johnson—has gained in nine games. The Boise State back is only 208 yards from surpassing the nation-leading total Ollie Gordon II racked up in 14 games a season ago.

Running past Gordon's 2023 total in Boise State's Nov. 9 matchup with Nevada would be a great start to sending Jeanty to a significant milestone: 2,500 yards.

With the Broncos scheduled for four more regular-season contests and a potential Mountain West Championship Game appearance, Jeanty could have five opportunities to gain a little less than 1,000 yards.

Only three rushers in college football history have reached 2,500 yards. Two of them—UCF's Kevin Smith in 2007 and Melvin Gordon in 2014—did not do so until their bowl games.

If Jeanty can reach 2,500 yards through conference championship week, he'll join Sanders as the only players ever to reach that milestone in the regular season.

With his two touchdowns scored against San Diego State in Week 11, Jeanty heads into the stretch run with 20 rushing touchdowns for the season. That's an average of 2.5 end-zone jaunts per game, a pace that will put him at 32 for the season if he maintains it for five more games.

Only five players have ever carried for 30 or more touchdowns in a season; only Sanders and Wisconsin's Montee Ball in 2011 scored 32 or more before their bowl game. Ball was a Heisman finalist in 2011 after hitting that mark, and he did so without reaching the all-important 2,000-yard milestone.

If Jeanty can get to 32 touchdowns, coupled with yardage well exceeding 2,000, he'll again be in a club alone with Sanders in the greatest year ever for a running back.

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As meaningful as statistical accomplishments are to any Heisman case, showing out against quality competition is just as important. Jeanty has maximized his opportunities against marquee opponents this season, most notably his 192 yards on 25 carries with three touchdowns against the nation's currently top-ranked team, Oregon .

For some additional context, that's 70 yards more than the Ducks defense allows per game.

Oregon maintaining its top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings is good for Jeanty. So, too, is Washington State climbing in the committee's weekly poll.

Jeanty absolutely decimated the currently No. 21-ranked Cougars on Sept. 28, going off for 259 yards and four touchdowns on just 26 carries. Should we get to the end of the season with two of Jeanty's best games coming against teams ranked highly in the Playoff poll, that will address some of the criticism inherent with playing in a non-autonomy conference.

But both of those games fell in September. The Heisman is very much a "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" award, and a marquee performance in November or December is imperative.

To that end, Boise State backers should become vehement UNLV supporters the rest of the way.

The Rebels broke into the Top 25 briefly this season and would presumably do so again if they win out to reach 10-2. That also would set up a Mountain West Championship rematch with Jeanty facing a third potentially ranked opponent—and with the rare opportunity to get a mulligan on what was his worst statistical game of the season.