Bucks County congressman is acting like his reelection is a sure bet

From an outsider's perspective, U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's reelection race in purple Bucks County should be competitive.

It is the last area in the Philadelphia suburbs represented by a Republican rather than a Democrat. Former President Donald Trump lost the district in the last two presidential elections and is on the ballot again this year. And it mirrors the profile of suburban communities across the U.S. that have rejected Republican representation in the Trump era.

But Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent seeking his fifth term in Congress, is treating the race like a sure bet. He has not participated in a single debate and has largely avoided public campaign events — and the media — as he has mounted a low-key reelection campaign. He's barely acknowledged he's in a race against Democrat Ashley Ehasz.

By avoiding the media and Ehasz, he has also avoided answering a key question — whether he will cast his ballot for the divisive former president next week.

Fitzpatrick has staked his reputation on being moderate and independent. But Trump complicates that image — and he's been struggling to answer questions about the former president since his first year in office.

Though Fitzpatrick was endorsed by Trump in 2020, the representative skirted questions then on whether he was backing the former president. Fitzpatrick was the sole Pennsylvania Republican in Congress to vote to certify President Joe Biden's 2020 victory, but he voted against both of Trump's impeachments — including in the wake of the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

As Republicans not strictly aligned with Trump become a rarer breed in U.S. politics, Fitzpatrick's campaign represents a tenuous balance — one that appears likely to pay off.

Stephen Medvic, a political scientist at Franklin and Marshall College, said Fitzpatrick has done well distancing himself from Trump, but "not so much that he gets the ire of the MAGA base."

"That's what appeals, I think, to the swing voters in that county," he added.

A quiet campaign

In his primary election contest against antiabortion activist Mark Houck, and now in his general election rematch against Ehasz, Fitzpatrick has kept a low profile. He has persistently ignored questions about Trump and Trump's campaign events in his district.

Ehasz, who lost to Fitzpatrick in 2022 by nearly 10 points, has once again centered her campaign on reproductive rights and tying her opponent to Trump.

In a statement, Fitzpatrick's campaign spokesperson Diane Dowler argued he had earned nearly 10 times the endorsements of Ehasz and attended 10 times more events. She did not respond to questions about what the events were or whether they were advised to the media. The campaign did not make Fitzpatrick available for an interview.

"Our campaign communicates directly with our constituents through a whole host of means, methods and venues — and our results on Election Day will reflect the effectiveness of our approach," Dowler said in an email. "The fact that the DCCC has not run a single [TV] ad against us for multiple election cycles now is testament to the effectiveness of our approach."

According to FEC data, Fitzpatrick has raised nearly $6 million since January of last year and spent just under $3 million. Ehasz's campaign touts outraising him last quarter, but Fitzpatrick finished the quarter with significantly more cash on hand to spend throughout the campaign. Over the course of the campaign, Fitzpatrick raised $6.1 million compared to Ehasz's $3.6 million.

Dowler framed Ehasz's candidacy as not worth Fitzpatrick's attention, noting that the Democrat was reprising the same messaging from 2022. She also called Ehasz's debate performance against Fitzpatrick in 2022 "an embarrassment."

Fitzpatrick's campaign ads have touted his bipartisan reputation and claimed he has always supported a woman's right to choose — though Democrats are quick to point to a 20-week abortion ban he voted in favor of in 2017 as well as his votes against largely symbolic efforts to restore federal abortion rights.

Ehasz insists that, with more funding and name recognition, her repeat message on abortion and Trump will help her win this time around and argues the incumbent is hiding because of that.

"If he felt he had such a stellar record, it would be very easy for him to come out and defend it, so the fact that he can't even get out and answer a few questions from the community tells me he knows he's on the wrong side of things, and his tactic has been to completely avoid the press," Ehasz said.

Fitzpatrick's strategy represents one of a safe suburban incumbent, like U.S. Rep. Madeleine Dean, who has not debated her Republican challenger, David Winkler, in her blue district.

"I think he feels comfortable the way his counterparts feel comfortable," Guy Ciarrocchi, a Republican political strategist based in Chester County, said.

But even Democratic U.S. Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, whose district is seen as safely blue, debated her Republican challenger, Neil Young.

Pat Poprick, the chair of the Bucks County Republican Committee, said Fitzpatrick is in the district "all the time," going from 100th birthday parties to Eagle Scouts award ceremonies, and meeting with members of the Republican committee.

"I used to joke if there were three people washing a dog at a dog wash thing, he'd be standing there," Poprick said. "He goes to everything. So his presence in the district is well known by the residents. That's why he wins big."

But Democrats in Bucks County argued Fitzpatrick has been inaccessible through much of his six years in office — citing a lack of consistent in-person town halls.

Kierstyn Zolfo, of the progressive grassroots organization Indivisible Bucks County, is hopeful the abortion argument will hit harder this year now that people have seen the fallout of abortion bans in other states.

"I mean, I'm anxious. I know it's a reach for us, but I think it's still doable," she said of defeating Fitzpatrick.

'Natural Base of Voters'

The small bit of polling available in the race, including polls funded by Ehasz, put Fitzpatrick in the lead. The Cook Political Report rates his district as likely Republican.

Ehasz has had more party support this time around, landing on the coveted Red to Blue list, which outlines the races the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chooses to invest resources in like staff, fundraising assistance, and polling. But national Democrats have not devoted as many resources to Ehasz as they have to other competitive races.

Neither the DCCC, nor the House Majority PAC, have purchased ads for the race.

"We named her to our Red to Blue program because she has a campaign built to win. While Fitzpatrick hides from his constituents, Ashley is exposing him for his antiabortion agenda. She is the only candidate who will be accountable to her constituents," DCCC spokesperson Aidan Johnson said.

Fitzpatrick's ability to hang onto his district — even as other moderate Republicans have been ousted by Democrats or primary challengers — is a proof point for the swingy nature of Bucks County.

But it's also a testament to the strength of incumbency and his ability to avoid answering direct questions about Trump and retain his moderate persona.

"He has a natural base of voters, he does nothing to offend them," Ciarrocchi said.