Can Republicans Score a Culture War Victory in Deep Blue New York?
Republicans are hoping to score a culture war victory in deep in enemy territory next month, as voters in New York consider a ballot measure to protect abortion rights and inscribe anti-discriminatory measures into the state constitution.
New York is one of nine states that will be voting on abortion rights this November , after the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark case that for decades guaranteed abortion rights across the country.
Proposition 1, if passed, would add to New York's state constitution "anti-discriminatory provisions" covering ethnicity, national origin, age, disability and sex, including sexual orientation, gender identity and pregnancy. It also covers reproductive healthcare and autonomy, though it does not mention abortion by name.
Although abortion remains legal in New York, advocates view the measure as necessary to protect reproductive rights from efforts to ban abortion at the federal level should Donald Trump return to the White House. It would also enshrine the right to abortion at the state level should anti-abortion Republicans come to power in Albany.
Opponents of the ballot measure, however, have argued the proposition is overly broad and would constitutionalize "discrimination in the name of equality," tying it to hot-button culture war issues centered around the LGBTQ+ community, rather than emphasizing abortion in their messaging.
They have dubbed the proposition the "Parent Replacement Act," arguing that abortion is already legal in New York, so there is no need to codify it in the constitution.
Andrew Taverrite, communications director for New Yorkers for Equal Rights, the group campaigning in support of the ballot measure, said in a statement to Newsweek that the proposition "will protect all New Yorkers' fundamental rights and reproductive freedoms, including abortion, now and in the future."
"Many of us took it for granted that our reproductive freedom would always be protected. When Roe v. Wade fell, we were shocked, and we realized our rights aren't as safe as we thought," he said.
Ayesha Kreutz, the campaign director for the Coalition to Protect Kids, told Newsweek that the proposition "threatens parental rights & degrades women."
"Prop 1 will appear on the back of ballots as: 'An Amendment to Protect Against Unequal Treatment,' but it actually permits discrimination," Kreutz said.
"Reverse discrimination has no place in civilized societies."
Is Prop 1 at Risk of Being Rejected by Voters?
New York is typically a reliably Democratic state where voters have generally liberal views on social issues, but there have been concerns from some supporters of Proposition 1 about whether its opponents could secure a surprise victory.
The New York Times reported last week that the vague phrasing of the proposition has given opponents a chance to redefine the measure, though its supporters still retain an advantage in both fundraising and polls.
New Yorkers for Equal Rights raised $2.4 million in the third quarter of 2024, ending the quarter with $1.7 million. While this may be short of the $20 million the group hoped to raise, according to the Times, it is still much more than the Coalition to Protect Kids.
The opposition group raised $94,000 in the third quarter, and had $46,000 in the bank at the end of September, according to campaign finance data.
A September poll from Siena College suggested a majority of New York voters are likely to vote in support of Proposition 1.
The poll, conducted among 1,003 likely voters from September 11 to September 16, found that 64 percent of respondents planned to vote in support of the amendment. Only 23 percent said they were unlikely to vote in favor of it, while 13 percent said they weren't sure how they would vote.
The Times also reported that Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, said the state Democratic Party plans to spend $1 million in support of the ballot measure over the final weeks of the campaign.
Danielle Brecker, co-leader of Empire State Indivisible and former state Democratic Committee member, told Newsweek she raised concerns about the state party's coordination efforts during a spring committee meeting, in which Prop 1 was not mentioned.
"I said, you know, what are we doing about this? Why are we not talking about this? We talked about making sure we win up and down the ballot, so why are we not talking about Prop 1?" she said. "I got a very unsatisfactory answer from party leadership."
The grassroots organizers in New York became activated on the issue after her question, deciding that they would step up if the state party does not. Since then, the party has ramped up coordinated efforts to support the proposition.
Brecker said she is "cautiously optimistic" it will pass, as voters have been supportive of the ballot measure in her canvassing. But Brecker noted she is concerned that Republicans could invest more to counter Prop 1 in the final weeks.
"It's going to be about turnout and making sure the people who turn out flip their ballot," she said, as the measure will be listed on the back of the ballot.
"Frankly, if New York City turns out and flips their ballots, it won't be an issue."
High-profile New York Democrats like Attorney General Letitia James and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand have come out in support of the measure.
"This November, Vote 'Yes' on Proposition 1, the Equal Rights Amendment. Vote 'Yes' to guarantee abortion access for all New Yorkers. Vote 'Yes' to guarantee every single New Yorker equal rights under the law. Vote 'Yes' to guarantee protections for our future generations," James wrote on social media on September 9.
Republicans like Representative Anthony D'Esposito, who is running in a tight re-election in the 4th Congressional District on Long Island, are trying to rally their constituents against it.
"Proposition 1, on November's ballot, is an extreme far-left initiative to use your taxpayer dollars to fund experimental surgeries on children with parental consent," he wrote in a September 5 statement. "This radical referendum would give away your taxes to illegal immigrants and unfairly allow men into women's bathrooms and sports."
Would Proposition 1 Allow Gender-Affirming Care for Minors Without Parental Consent?
As Rep. D'Esposito has argued, opponents of Proposition 1 say it would allow the state to allow gender-affirming care and surgeries to minors without parental consent, as it would classify "age" as a protected class. They say this could embolden legal arguments that minors should be able to make their own healthcare decisions, regardless of their parents' input, wading into a culture war issue that has energized the conservative base.
However, Taverrite told Newsweek this is not the case and that the proposition wouldn't change any laws related to parental consent for their children's healthcare.
"New York state law requires parental consent for minors to receive any gender-affirming medical procedures. Prop 1 does not change that. The politicians and activists falsely claiming otherwise are attempting to use a handful of innocent kids as political pawns to divide New Yorkers and distract from what Prop 1 is actually about: protecting abortion rights and preventing discrimination," he said.
A report from the New York City Bar also found that the measure would not affect parental rights in the state.
"Prop 1 does not address parental rights, which are governed by other developed areas of state and federal law. Prop 1 does not change existing law with respect to parental consent, or parents' ability to be involved in decision-making about healthcare or medical procedures for their minor children, including gender-affirming care," the report reads.
While parental rights has become a key element of GOP' messaging on the issue, opponents have, notably, not been emphasizing abortion in their campaign.
Reproductive rights became a challenging issue for Republicans after the Supreme Court overturned Roe in 2022. Voters, who generally support abortion rights with some restrictions, blamed Republicans for the decision, as former President Donald Trump appointed justices to the court who were instrumental in the landmark ruling.
In 2022, outrage over abortion blocked Republican hopes of a "red wave" that would carry them to large victories in the House and Senate . Democrats emphasized abortion rights in their campaigns, helping them win key victories.
New York, however, was one of the handful of states that did see a red wave in 2022, with Republicans flipping four seats in the House of Representatives and making competitive the gubernatorial race. Hochul still won, but by a far smaller-than-expected margin.
