Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon prediction, odds, pick

Carlos Alcaraz takes on Frances Tiafoe at Wimbledon . Our Wimbledon odds series has our Alcaraz Tiafoe prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Alcaraz Tiafoe.

The 2024 Wimbledon Championships move into the third round, and this match will certainly draw a lot of intrigue at the outset. The real question is if Frances Tiafoe can step forward and make this a battle. Tiafoe and Alcaraz have met on a bigger stage. They went at each other in the 2022 United States Open semifinals, with Alcaraz prevailing in a match which was not easy. On that evening in New York, Tiafoe looked like a player who was capable of being one of the elites in men's tennis. If a player makes the semifinal of a major tournament, he earns that level of respect, at least in the moment. Other players such as Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas have reached a major semifinal — in Tsitsipas's case, a final — but in the years since those impressive achievements, those players have faded instead of remaining top-tier forces on the tour. Tiafoe has himself faded. This match gives him a chance to reenter the forefront of the conversation in men's tennis.

Tiafoe covers the court really well and is a persistent, active defensive player. He keeps points alive and is not an easy opponent to play against in the specific sense that he will make opponents hit a few extra balls to finish off points. However, where Tiafoe falls short is in his offensive game. His forehand is not one of the better ones on tour. His serve is not an elite weapon. Players who don't have top forehands or serves will struggle to win quick, easy points. Tiafoe has not developed his offensive game to complement his defensive skills. He has to be able to win quick, easy points against Alcaraz.

The one avenue of opportunity for Tiafoe here is that Alcaraz is coming off a French Open championship and is the defending Wimbledon champion. Alcaraz might have slightly less hunger here than he would have if he had not won in Paris or if he had not won at the All-England Club last year. Tiafoe might be able to pounce on an opponent who is not playing at the absolute height of his powers.

Wimbledon Odds: Carlos Alcaraz-Frances Tiafoe Odds

Game spread

Alcaraz -6.5: -144 Tiafoe +6.5: -110

Money line

Alcaraz: -2300 Tiafoe: +1060

To win first set

Alcaraz: -460 Tiafoe: +340

Total Games In Match

Over 32.5: -120 Under 32.5: -110

Alcaraz over 19.5 games: -110 Alcaraz under 19.5 games: -120

Tiafoe over 13.5 games: -110 Tiafoe under 13.5 games: -120

How To Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe

Stream: ESPN Plus

Time: 8:35 a.m. ET / 5:35 a.m. PT

*Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Carlos Alcaraz Could Cover The Spread

Alcaraz played four scratchy sets at this tournament — three in the first round against Mark Lajal, and then a shaky first set against Aleksandar Vukic in the second round. Then he began to relax and open up in the second and third sets of the Vukic match, winning them 6-2 and 6-2 to cover the spread against Vukic. Alcaraz won the first set 7-6, at which point his 7.5-game spread margin was in huge trouble. However, by blowing out Vukic in the next two sets, he won by nine total games and covered. If we see the good version of Alcaraz in all three sets, he is easily seven games better than Tiafoe and can cover the 6.5-game spread.

Why Frances Tiafoe Could Cover The Spread

If Alcaraz continues to be inconsistent, Tiafoe will cover. This match is really about whether Alcaraz rounds into form or remains wobbly. Tiafoe will benefit from Alcaraz mistakes, and so if you're not sold on Alcaraz, you can and should bet on Tiafoe.

Final Carlos Alcaraz-Frances Tiafoe Prediction & Pick

The best play here is under total games. Here's why: If Alcaraz can win in straight sets and needs seven games in only one of the three sets, it will be hard for the under to not cover. If Alcaraz wins 7-5, 6-4, 6-4 — which is a close scoreline — he still covers. That's 32 total games. If Alcaraz wins one set 6-2, he could win a tiebreaker set (7-6) and then win the third set 6-4 and still get in under 32.5 games.