Cats Stats: 6 reasons for optimism as Arizona Wildcats embark on second half of 2024 season

Not all 3-3 first halves are created equal.

As first-year Arizona coach Brent Brennan noted earlier this week, the Wildcats had the same exact record at the same exact juncture last season.

"The only difference between those things is how we feel about it because of the expectations going into the season," Brennan said. "So now, all of a sudden, it feels worse, right?"

It sure does. Coming off a 10-3 season and having started this one 2-0, Arizona has stumbled back to .500. As a result, angst has supplanted optimism; frustration has displaced hope.

We're trying to avoid getting sucked into the doom and gloom here at "Cats Stats." The Wildcats have at least six more games to play. Anything is possible.

With that in mind, here are six reasons to feel hopeful about the second half of the season — and, in some cases, the next season or two to come.

T-Mac's YAC

Junior receiver Tetairoa McMillan has had an odd season in some regards.

He has four touchdowns, and all of them came in the opener. He's had three 100-plus-yard performances but has yet to put together two in a row (after ending last season with four in a row).

But McMillan has improved markedly in at least one aspect of his game: running after the catch.

McMillan leads the Big 12 and ranks sixth nationally among wide receivers with 306 yards after the catch, according to Pro Football Focus . McMillan also has forced 19 missed tackles — the most of any wideout, per PFF.

McMillan is averaging 7.3 YAC per reception this season, up from 6.0 last season and 5.0 as a freshman. He already has forced more missed tackles this year than last (13).

McMillan also leads the Big 12 in receiving yards (742) and receiving yards per game (123.7).

The UA offense has many problems. T-Mac isn't one of them.

Fifita's feet

Quarterback Noah Fifita unquestionably has taken a step backward this year. But when it comes to avoiding sacks, Fifita has displayed fancy footwork.

Fifita has the lowest pressure-to-sack rate (6.7%) in the Big 12 and the fourth lowest in the nation, according to PFF (minimum 152 dropbacks).

Fifita has been pressured 89 times but has been sacked only six times. His counterpart Saturday, Colorado's Shedeur Sanders, has been pressured 101 times and has suffered 22 sacks. That's a P2S% of 21.8 (highest in the Big 12).

Fifita was in that range last season at 17.5%. He's much quicker, niftier and craftier than a year ago. Thanks mostly to Fifita, Arizona is on pace to allow its fewest sacks in a full season since 2013 (17).

Keeping plays alive has worked to Fifita's detriment at times as he has forced too many passes into coverage. Brennan said, bluntly, that his quarterback has taken too many hits.

But you can't question Fifita's toughness and resolve. The redshirt sophomore is giving everything for his team, even if it means getting chased and hit by players who are much bigger than he is.

Back of the future

Arizona might have found its lead running back for 2025 in Kedrick Reescano.

A true sophomore, Reescano spent his freshman year at Ole Miss. He played exclusively on special teams.

Reescano hasn't gotten a ton of work out of the backfield at Arizona; he has just 35 rushing attempts at the halfway point. But he's made the most of his opportunities.

Reescano is averaging 4.15 yards after contact per rushing attempt, according to PFF. That figure ranks fifth in the Big 12 (minimum 31 rushing attempts), and three of the backs ahead of him are among the league's elite: Kansas State's DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards, and Utah's Micah Bernard.

(Reescano's teammate, Quali Conley, ranks sixth at 4.09 yards after contact per attempt.)

Reescano has forced 14 missed tackles. On a percentage basis, he's outpacing even Arizona State battering ram Cameron Skattebo.

Skattebo has forced missed tackles on 32.8% of his rushes. Reescano is at 41.2%.

Breakout defender, Part 1

True sophomore Genesis Smith is Arizona's highest-rated defender, per PFF's grading system (minimum 60 snaps). The safety also has the highest coverage grade of any UA defensive back.

Smith has allowed just six catches in 14 targets, a reception rate against of 42.9%. He has yet to surrender a touchdown and has a team-high two interceptions (plus a forced fumble).

Smith has done all that while playing in multiple spots as the Wildcats have sought to overcome injuries in their secondary. According to PFF, Smith has played free safety on 173 snaps, in the slot on 102 snaps and in the tackle box on 64 snaps.

When quarterbacks throw the ball in Smith's vicinity, it usually doesn't end well for them. They have an NFL passer rating of just 26.5 when throwing at Smith, per PFF. That's the fifth-best mark in the Big 12 among defensive backs (minimum 57 coverage snaps).

If there's one area where Smith can stand to improve it's tackling. He has a team-high eight missed tackles, per PFF. But we've seen players, such as injured safety Gunner Maldonado, improve in that aspect over the course of the careers.

Breakout defender, Part 2

Another true sophomore, Taye Brown, seized a starting linebacker spot in summer and hasn't relinquished it.

No UA defender has played more snaps (388), and no UA player has played more total snaps (459, including 71 on special teams).

Brown trails only fellow linebacker Jacob Manu in total tackles (43-38) and solo tackles (24-23). He has matched Manu with three tackles for loss. He's tied for the team lead with two sacks.

When he gets to a ball-carrier, Brown most likely will take him down. He has a missed-tackle rate of just 9.5%, which ranks sixth in the Big 12 among off-ball linebackers (minimum 235 snaps).

As is the case with Smith — and most relatively young players — Brown has room for growth. He has struggled in pass coverage, yielding 15 receptions in 16 targets, per PFF.

Premier placekicker

Colleague Justin Spears named senior kicker Tyler Loop the Wildcats' midseason Offensive MVP . You could make the case he's been their overall MVP.

Loop has been Arizona's most consistent scoring threat. He's also been a force on kickoffs.

Loop's overall field goal success rate of 82.4% ranks second in the Big 12 (minimum nine attempts). His six field goals made between 40 and 49 yards pace the nation.

Loop is 6 for 7 from that range and 3 of 4 from 50-plus yards. Only two kickers (SMU's Collin Rogers, Vanderbilt's Brock Taylor) have more made field goals from 50 yards and beyond.

Loop is the only kicker in the country with a 100% touchback rate (minimum 25 kickoffs), per CFBStats.com . If Arizona is kicking off, the opponent is almost guaranteed to start at the 25-yard line.

Loop has had two unsuccessful onside kick attempts the past two weeks — proof that no one is perfect.

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