Chicago Blackhawks 2024-25 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman

The Blackhawks got their generational superstar — Connor Bedard is, basically, as good as advertised. They got their restocked system, too — Chicago's prospect pool is the best in the sport, according to The Athletic's Corey Pronman, and not just because of the guy at the top of the list.

Consider those boxes checked. Now, the Blackhawks seem set on trying to turn all that talent into actual wins. They certainly acted the part during the offseason, adding legitimate NHL reinforcements up and down the lineup. For now, it'll help them at least look the part. Is it fair to expect more?

The projection

The problem with scorched earth rebuilds is that it takes time for that earth to become fertile ground again. Even massive steps can still have a franchise far away from competitiveness.

That's exactly where Chicago lands with an expected 25-point improvement ... that still has the Blackhawks almost 20 points out of a playoff spot in the West. All that money spent in free agency isn't enough to completely turn this team around, leaving it very likely that the Blackhawks will once again be a bottom-five outfit. They landed there in 54 percent of simulations.

To those who thought the Blackhawks might be rushing the rebuild in the summer, that should be viewed as a good thing. A great thing, really. The Blackhawks are still likely to be very bad in 2024-25, bad enough to land another much-needed blue-chip prospect. But they shouldn't be so bad to create an untenable environment for the current crop of youth on the team that stifles their growth.

It's a tough balance to strike for a rebuilding team still in need of cornerstone pieces, and Chicago looks to have it right going into this season.

The big question

How high can Connor Bedard soar in his sophomore season?

"Unfair expectations to place on a rookie," or some variation of the phrase, was something we heard frequently regarding Connor Bedard last season. Typically, the expectations were indeed unfair — and they were also quite real. Bedard entered the league with, at minimum, more hype than all but a few prospects in the history of the league. Sidney Crosby had him beat in 2005. Connor McDavid had him beat in 2015. After that, you'd probably have to go back to Eric Lindros. After Lindros ... Mario Lemieux? Wayne Gretzky? The list is short. Unfair expectations come hand-in-glove with otherworldly gifts.

Bedard, of course, either met or exceeded most of them. His 0.91 points-per-game average is the seventh-best all-time for any player who was 18 at the start of his rookie season and second only to Crosby outside of the 1980s. Not even McDavid, thanks to an early birthday, can stake a claim there. Less tangibly, he felt like must-see TV from opening night onward, with puck skills and a shot that, at times, seemed even better than advertised. To watch him in the offensive zone, where he's already creating shots and chances at an elite rate, was to understand the hype.

Of course, there's more to a sheet of ice than the offensive zone — and in that space, Bedard was, to be charitable, a mess. "He was horrendous defensively last year," one exec told us during the Player Tiers reporting. "I don't believe that will last forever, but right now it's not good."

Really, it makes the fact that Bedard scored 61 points in 68 games last season almost more impressive, he managed that despite rarely having the puck. With him on the ice at five-on-five, Chicago was outshot 610-436, outscored 67-37 and lost expected goals 58-42. Compare that to McDavid's rookie year, when he helped a horrible Oilers team control about 55 percent of the expected goals scored while he was on the ice. Crosby's rookie year predates the advanced stats era, but he managed to put up a minus-1 on (another) abysmal team, along with 102 overall points. There's nothing wrong with falling a bit short of two legends in Year 1; there's also no reason to pretend Bedard did otherwise.

So now, as we move into the "unfair expectations to place on a second-year player" portion of his career, what could reasonably come next? If you're grading him on the Crosby/McDavid scale, it's ... quite a lot. Both won Hart Trophies, scoring titles and led their teams from the draft lottery to the playoffs. They also, though, each had an elite peer as their running mate — Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh and Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton. Chicago's prospect pool, wonderfully stocked as it might be, doesn't yet seem to have a future scoring champion slotting in at 2C.

In the absence of that, Chicago seems to have chosen to insulate Bedard with competent middle-six play drivers in Teuvo Teräväinen and Tyler Bertuzzi . Both are a step up from Bedard's typical linemates last season and, if nothing else, should a) help keep the puck on his stick a little more often and b) turn his playmaking skill into actual production. Taylor Hall , who was Bedard's linemate at the start of last season but injured in his 10th game, is also back in the mix as both a five-on-five option and power-play element. It's worth noting that Chicago was also horrendous with the man advantage last season, no team generated worse looks, and no team scored less. That's unsustainably bad.

Those improvements, along with another year of NHL training and a sense of what he can (and can't) get away with against the best players on Earth, should be enough to get Bedard closer to the point-per-game mark; that's short of Crosby and McDavid but on par with Auston Matthews . Not bad company. That type of production, plus a more well-rounded individual game and a team point total that doesn't start with "5" for the second straight season, should be considered a success.

The fun part will be to see just how far he can travel beyond the realm of reasonability. Crosby and McDavid's greatest gift — one they share — was an ability to deliver on the hype, then keep going. It's time to see whether Bedard is in that class.

The wild card

Can Kevin Korchinski prove he's big-league material?

There's one interesting omission from the depth chart below: Kevin Korchinski, the seventh pick from 2022. That's for good reason: He struggled so much last season that he may be better served in Rockford, at least to start the season.

Korchinski is projected to have an outright brutal Net Rating of minus-11, the worst mark in the league, which speaks to how out of his depth he was last season. Despite some intriguing flashes of skill, Korchinski's overall impact was largely negative in his rookie season, leading to a minus-15.2 Net Rating, the 10th worst rating among defenders since 2007-08.

To his credit, it may not perfectly reflect who he is right now. Projections are based on three years at the NHL level. A player with anything less than that will see extra emphasis on NHL games over that span. For Korchinski, that's just 76 games spent on a terrible Blackhawks team.

Rookie seasons come with the challenge of adjusting to the speed and skill of the NHL. That challenge is daunting on a team like the Blackhawks because there's a lot less support to go around.

Korchinski looked exposed by the Blackhawks' trial-by-fire environment. Chicago allowed more quality chances and goals against in his minutes relative to his teammates, and his rookie mistakes directly contributed to that. But there were bright spots, like his ability to move the puck out of the zone with control.

Those bright spots are a reminder of his pedigree. Top-10 picks are drafted highly because of their ceiling and general ability to reach it sooner. Sometimes even those players need more time, Darnell Nurse 's minus-12.2 Net Rating as a rookie is a prime example.

The 19-year-old may not have been an impact player immediately, but still has the talent to become one. It just has to translate better this season, even if it means some extra seasoning in the AHL first. If he does make the team, Chicago's projection drops by three points.

The strengths

The Blackhawks will go as far as Bedard takes them, now and for the foreseeable future.

Offensively, that's fairly far which could really start to show as soon as this season. Bedard's projected plus-12 Offensive Rating puts him right in line with other top centers around the league and it's the primary reason he landed in Tier 3A this season. There's a real chance he explodes past point-per-game status in 2024-25 and doesn't look back. A 90-point season is on the table.

This season he should have a lot more help both at five-on-five and on the power play to get there. Taylor Hall being healthy helps, but more crucial are the additions of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen. Both are solid top-six options that could hit 60 points on Bedard's flanks, with both looking like perfect complements for him on the top line.

Both players love to apply pressure on the forecheck and have a knack for play-making, two skills that will help Bedard greatly in the offensive zone. Neither player commands the puck in transition allowing Bedard to be the guy, and both offer strong traits that can help push Bedard further. Bertuzzi is feisty and has a nose for the net, Teravainen is a defensive ace that will offer much-needed support in that realm. The fit makes a ton of sense.

Having a strong defensive support system is critical for Bedard's Blackhawks with the teenager often looking overwhelmed without the puck last season. Jason Dickinson 's resurgence as a legitimate shutdown option helped greatly in that department and should be aided further this year with the addition of Ilya Mikheyev . With Nick Foligno on the other side, the Blackhawks will have a real shutdown line at their disposal that can help put some of their best offensive players into even more advantageous offensive situations.

The same goes on defense with the emergence of Alex Vlasic , whose plus-7.9 Defensive Rating last season ranked fifth in the league behind only Los Angeles' top pair, Gustav Forsling and Jonas Brodin . Good company.

Despite playing some of the toughest minutes in the league, Vlasic was on the ice for just 2.63 expected goals against per 60 and 2.31 goals against per 60 — both much better than team average. Vlasic enters the season with the fifth-highest projected Defensive Rating and looks to be the shutdown answer on Chicago's top pair for years to come.

His presence helped get the most out of Seth Jones last season and gave the Blackhawks a pretty decent top pair. Given the difficulty of their minutes, while playing on a team this weak, the duo earning 47 percent of the expected goals while only getting outscored 34-32 is a legitimate feat. While neither player looks to be a legitimate No. 1, Vlasic and Jones clearly fit well together. The duo may start the year apart to create a semblance of balance in the top four, but if worse comes to worst, the Blackhawks know they have a dependable top pair ready to go.

Jones, to his credit, posted his strongest numbers yet as a Blackhawk according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder. His tools as a puck-moving defenseman were on full display where he was very active in all three zones and as efficient as one could ask for in such a difficult environment. While he may not be the elite franchise defender many once pegged him to be, any team would be lucky to have Jones' well-rounded game on the top pair.

In net, the acquisition of Laurent Brossoit is intriguing. The former Jets backup ranks 12th in goals saved above expected over the last two seasons and currently projects to be the league's best 1B goalie. It's a small sample that needs to be taken lightly, but it's still encouraging. If Brossoit can handle a bigger role, a chance to show he's a full-time starter is on the table — he just has to earn it first.

If he does, he'll be able to keep the Blackhawks in a lot more games than they deserve this season.

The weaknesses

Whatever Bedard gave Chicago last season with his immediate all-world ability with the puck, he gave just as much back without it. That's one major problem staring Chicago down going into 2024-25.

Even after accounting for his extremely difficult environment (one that Dickinson and Vlasic were able to thrive defensively in, mind you), Bedard's plus-6.1 Offensive Rating was nearly eclipsed by his minus-5.5 Defensive Rating. Even for a rookie, that's bad and all eyes will be on how he fares in that department in his sophomore season. Look around the league to the other franchise centers and their defensive game is at least neutral — that's the level Bedard needs to reach.

While this roster is better equipped to help alleviate some of the pressure off Bedard defensively, things still look bleak on offense.

Part of what made Chicago so anemic last season was that every team only needed to draw up one thing on the board before every game: guard Bedard. Bertuzzi is a fine add for the top line as a third option — as he was used in Toronto — but could be overwhelmed as Bedard's second-in-command. As good as Teravainen's all-around game is, offensively he's below average for a top line.

And those are the team's best options.

Secondary scoring outside the top line is going to be an even bigger problem with Chicago's bottom nine forwards earning a combined minus-39 Offensive Rating. That's not the league's worst mark ( Minnesota is at minus-43), but it is close. Taylor Hall is the only forward not on the top line that's expected to provide above-average offense, and even he's only at plus-one.

A lot will depend on how the second line, anchored by Hall, fares. Hall will have to prove he's still got it — and can stay healthy. Frank Nazar , if he makes the team, will have to prove he belongs in the NHL in a top-six role. And Philipp Kurashev will have to prove he's not just a product of Bedard. There's potential if everything clicks, but on paper, it looks like a well below-average second line.

Also problematic for Chicago is the team's offense from the blue line, where only Seth Jones grades out above average. The group's combined minus-17 Offensive Rating is second worst to only San Jose 's minus-18 — a difference that speaks volumes given the Sharks' personnel.

To Chicago's credit, the Blackhawks did bolster its blue line with the additions of TJ Brodie and Alec Martinez , but neither should be mistaken for players that can help offensively. If they can stop other teams at this stage of their careers, that's a plus. But they look more like a good third pair and will likely be overmatched in the top four.

The wild cards in all of that will be Lukas Reichel and Kevin Korchinski, both of whom had completely forgettable rookie seasons that have taken a lot of luster off their pedigree. Their skill level suggests they can be the answer to Chicago creating more offense, but both players were so far off the mark in their first season that some skepticism is warranted.

Reichel looked extremely promising in his first real taste of big league action scoring 1.78 points-per-60 in 23 games in 2022-23. Add some strong play-driving numbers to that and it was reasonable to expect Reichel to be an impact player next to Bedard. That didn't come to be, partially because the two never had much of an opportunity to actually play together.

Left to his own devices, Reichel was outclassed and outmatched on most shifts. He had just 16 points in 65 games, earned 36 percent of the expected goals and was completely uninvolved with the puck in all three zones. It was a disaster that has him entering the season with a projected Net Rating of minus-10, one of the worst marks among all forwards.

Reichel needs to take a major step in Year 2 to get the Blackhawks moving in the right direction. For Chicago's rebuild to work, the Blackhawks need to hit on their prospects who aren't Bedard and it's not a great sign that Reichel, along with Korchinski, struggled so mightily in his first season.

Part of that is on the Blackhawks creating a work environment that young players can succeed in with a supporting cast that can help them. They failed at that last year, but have made key changes to fix it for 2024-25.

Now that Chicago has help on the way, the other part will be on the team's up-and-coming players to actually prove they belong. Reichel and Korchinski enter the year as significant weaknesses — how they end the year could say a lot about how bright this team's future can be.

The best case

Bedard cleans things up defensively, takes another step offensively, and becomes an everyday top-10 player. Other members of the young core take big steps, the newcomers are as good as advertised, and the Blackhawks take a major step forward — without leaving the draft's top 10. They look playoff-ready for 2026.

The worst case

Bedard's defensive issues continue to manifest while the rest of the young group stagnates. All the while, the players who came in via free agency play well above their means and drag the Blackhawks outside the draft's top five. The playoffs feel extremely far away.

The bottom line

The pieces are falling into place in Chicago to push this rebuild along. But drafting talent is just one part of the equation. Now comes the challenge of developing their young stars to become the difference-makers of the future. That is what a successful season hinges on for the Blackhawks.

How the model works

How the model adjusts for context

Understanding projection uncertainty

Evolving Hockey

Natural Stat Trick

Hockey Reference

All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.

(Top photo of Connor Bedard: Michael Reaves / )