Columbus Blue Jackets 2024-25 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings
By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
In a press conference a few days after Johnny Gaudreau's death, Blue Jackets president Don Waddell put it succinctly.
"Where there's a huge hole in our lineup," Waddell said, "there's even a larger one in our hearts."
Replacing Gaudreau as a person isn't possible. Replacing him as a hockey player is both significantly less important and only a bit less difficult. Figuring out how to play games after a tragedy is something Waddell and the organization have both faced , and now it's a hill they'll have to climb once more.
The projection
This is no doubt going to be a challenging year on the ice for the Blue Jackets. With a 69-point projection, a noteworthy improvement on last year's 66 points isn't likely to be in the cards. For Columbus, the on-ice result — the farthest thing from anyone's mind at the moment — will probably be more of the same.
That projection bodes well for Columbus's future, as it gives the team an 84 percent chance of landing in the league's bottom five — it's just not very rosy in the short term. Barring some incredible and simultaneous jumps from several of the team's young players, the chances of Columbus being competitive on a nightly basis aren't high. New coach Dean Evason will likely give the team a bump in the right direction, one that's not accounted for here, but this roster can only go so far with the talent it has on paper.
All of that stems from a completely cold and calculating approach to what is an obviously delicate and human situation. The truth is, no one knows how the team will respond on the ice this season after losing a beloved friend and teammate. We can only hope — and root — for the best.
The big question
Is Adam Fantilli ready to take a leap to stardom?
Fantilli's rookie season started with a September coaching change and ended after 49 games due to a calf injury. There were speed bumps in the middle, too, thanks to the quality of the roster surrounding him, injuries to his teammates and, at times, limited minutes under Pascal Vincent, who replaced Mike Babcock on the eve of training camp.
That's certainly not how anyone from Columbus would have drawn it up after selecting Fantilli with the No. 3 pick in 2023. Still, his outlook heading into this season is a testament to the potential he possesses — and how he managed to convert that potential to strong play, even as a 19-year-old operating under circumstances that, even on their best days, were far from ideal.
Coming out of the draft, Fantilli drew ultra-high marks from prospect evaluators such as Scott Wheeler for his size, skating and transition-game dominance during his Hobey Baker-winning season at the University of Michigan. " It's not often we see players his size who can move like him, " Wheeler wrote while labeling him the third-best drafted prospect in hockey.
"He's going to be a transition monster. On top of it all, he's physical, he's a fiery competitor, he'll get after it on forecheck and track pucks, he plays with energy, and he'll pounce on turnovers and be opportunistic."
By the middle of the season, that skillset was on display. After injuries to players such as Boone Jenner forced Vincent to move him up in the lineup, Fantilli had seven goals and six assists in 14 December games. Playing alongside Gaudreau meant Fantilli was facing top competition on a nightly basis, and he held up his end of the bargain.
"I don't think it's ideal to put (Fantilli) in a position like this, but I don't think it's bad, either. I don't think it's best for his development," Vincent said on Jan. 2, according to The Athletic's Aaron Portzline . "We want him to develop really good habits, and when you play against (Auston) Matthews, (John) Tavares, (Jack) Hughes, those top players ... there's a line we need to walk. But for now, he's getting great experience."
January wasn't as kind to his point production, but he still finished with 12 goals and 15 assists in 49 games, and a 2.05 points/60 at five-on-five that was third on the Blue Jackets. That's a solid foundation on its own. It wasn't just the points, either — it was how he went about scoring them. Fantilli, even as a rookie, positively impacted shots and scoring chances at rates comfortably above the average NHL center, according to Corey Sznjader's data. His work at gaining the offensive zone might've been even more impressive: he was in the 96th percentile league-wide in controlled-entry percentage. "Transition monster," indeed.
Defensively, Fantilli was involved quite a bit, making exits and puck retrievals at rates well above the average NHL center, but efficiency was an issue — those exits, more often than not, weren't controlled, and the retrievals too rarely led to flipping the zone. This, perhaps more than anywhere else, is where Fantilli's age is worth mentioning. A 19-year-old showing that degree of effort, and that willingness to try, speaks to his potential as a responsible two-way, top-line center. He has the desire, he has the skillset and he's already begun to get the reps. That's a recipe for improved results and a well-rounded game sooner rather than later.
Fantilli's projection for this season reflects that. No Blue Jackets forward has a higher projected Net Rating than his plus-3. Finishing in that range wouldn't constitute star-level production, and the talent surrounding him is likely to again be an issue, but everything continues pointing in the right direction. Fantilli looked the part of a franchise center the day the Blue Jackets drafted him, and he's likely to continue growing into the role.
The wild card
Is David Jiřiček ready for a top-four role?
After a wonky second season in North America for Jiřiček — Columbus sent him to the AHL on several occasions, including at one point for nearly three months, and he wasn't happy about it — it's worth stating he certainly still projects to be a legit top-four defenseman. At some point.
Scott Wheeler called him a "confident, active, engaged, three-zone player who has almost all of the tools you look for in a top defender." Corey Pronman, while noting Jiřiček's issues with adapting to NHL pace, still projects him as "an all-situations top-four defenseman." He's a big (6-foot-3, 199 pounds), athletic, booming right-shot, and that's as true now as it was when the Blue Jackets drafted him No. 6 overall in 2022. He's also still just 20 years old. There are, by all accounts, no real reasons to push the panic button.
That said, expecting him to fill that role in 2024-25 — as a top-four defenseman in performance, not just as a lineup designation — is probably overzealous. He's still played in just 47 NHL games. So, while there have been elements of his game to like (solid work on zone exits and puck retrievals, the fact Columbus' defensive results were better with him on the ice), he almost certainly will need more time to develop into an actual game-changer. The question for Evason, really, is whether Jiřiček should learn on the job.
The strengths
Any team projected for 68 points usually doesn't have a lot of strengths on paper. But there is still long-term potential thanks to Columbus's up-and-coming core.
The best way to turn a team's trajectory around from the bottom of the standings is to lean on young, skilled forwards. Some of the strongest contenders in the league first had to bottom out to load up on top talent. Think of the Penguins , Blackhawks and Lightning — each team's foundation was built on top-10 picks who eventually helped fuel their championship runs. In Fantilli, Kent Johnson , and eventually 2024 first-round pick Cayden Lindstrom , the Blue Jackets have three top-five picks with high ceilings. Add players like Jiřiček and Cole Sillinger , and the vision can start coming together.
Drafting those players is one part of the equation; developing them is another animal entirely. That's the task for Evason and the Blue Jackets' coaching staff this year. Evason isn't exactly known as a developmental coach, but he has experience with young players such as Matt Boldy . His time in Minnesota will help show what he can do on a team that isn't as defensively-minded.
The Blue Jackets have seen glimpses of the star Fantilli can be, and more time at center in prime minutes should help. Sillinger has the skills to become a real scoring threat, too; he had a knack for generating shots and scoring chances last year at five-on-five.
Alongside those centers, there is some younger talent on the wings to help push the pace of play. Kirill Marchenko was a reliable secondary scorer last season in Columbus despite the team around him, while Yegor Chinakhkov's rush game impressed. If a healthy Johnson can get back on track, the Blue Jackets will have some building blocks for a long-term forward group in place.
Having Sean Monahan for extra center support doesn't hurt, either. He doesn't quite match the archetype for a top-six center that teams should strive for, but that doesn't matter for Columbus, given their current standing. The question is whether he can keep trending back up in this environment after rebuilding his value in Montreal and Winnipeg. At the very least, having extra center depth should help take some of the burden off the young stars — as long as he doesn't take meaningful minutes away from them when their play calls for it. Ditto for the newly signed James van Riemsdyk , who offers nice depth in the middle six. Both players were once top-10 picks themselves and can offer valuable wisdom, experience and leadership to the team's growing core.
On the back end, Zach Werenski looks like a true number one offensively, but has struggled defensively at times with a lack of support, which downgrades his value. At his best, he is a spark from the back end with his ability in transition. Werenski does a lot with little around him and it's why many insiders we spoke to for our annual Player Tiers project felt he deserved more love than his projected Net Rating suggested. He can be counted on to retrieve pucks, exit the defensive end with possession and drive play into the offensive zone. His zone entry numbers did slip last year, but if he can get back to his 2021-22 levels and stay healthy, he should be a major difference-maker in Columbus.
With the addition of Jordan Harris , the Blue Jackets add another capable defender to a blue line that can use all the support it can get.
The weaknesses
Even with the potential of their young talent, the Blue Jackets' roster as a whole is flawed. The young guns are simply too unproven and raw to take on the responsibility of carrying a thin supporting cast at this moment.
Fantilli, Johnson and Sillinger could become that; the one worry is that a coach blocks their path via veteran over-reliance. That was the case last year at times with Boone Jenner down the middle, which put a crimp in Fantilli's progression. It could happen again with Monahan. If the coaches take their eye off the long term, it could stunt the development of the players this team's future is riding on.
But even with everyone slotted in appropriate roles, it's clear this forward group is going to have its work cut out for it this year. The high-end talent is missing, the middle-six isn't playoff-caliber and even the depth is lacking. That only changes if a bunch of players play to their absolute ceilings and outpace projections. Given everything that's happened in Columbus over the last year, no one can blame the players if that doesn't happen.
Offense is a troubling area for this squad, but defense is the real weak point. Between all 18 skaters, the Blue Jackets project to have a collective minus-45 Defensive Rating, the worst in the league. The forward group is a drag in that department, but the blue line ultimately isn't steady enough to make up for their issues, and that is what ultimately sinks them.
On defense, five of six defenders fall short of the ideal value for their respective positions. Maybe Werenski can push past that with a healthy season, but last year's big additions, Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov , don't look top-pair caliber.
Provorov's game took a step back in his first season in Columbus. After denying 72 percent of the entries he faced in 2022-23, according to AllThreeZone's tracking, he dropped down to just 48 percent last year. And once in the zone, he struggled to retrieve pucks and push play back out of the defensive zone.
Severson similarly saw big dips from 2022-23 as well. The big difference was his usage. He went from being a very solid third-pair defenseman in New Jersey to top pair with the Blue Jackets. While he obviously didn't have much help last year, he looked exposed with his new team. A minus-1 Net Rating is fine for a No. 4 defenseman or the third pair, but he was signed in Columbus to be more than that.
Gudbranson is a one-dimensional depth defenseman who doesn't do much to foster a team's offense. It's just that his old-school style isn't as sound defensively as the Blue Jackets need. His minus-9 Net Rating is the worst of the projected six starting defensemen and brings down the right side's collective rating to 31st in the league.
Maybe having a partner such as Harris will help Gudbranson. But if the coaches instead decide to roll out a third pair consisting of Gudbranson and Jack Johnson , those could be some troubling minutes. As problematic as that may be, it will only better the team's chances of earning another top draft pick, which is what they ultimately need to move forward, anyway.
Behind that blue line, the Blue Jackets don't have the most reliable goalie tandem, either. To his credit, Elvis Merzlikins rebounded from a disastrous 2022-23, when he ranked last in goals saved above expected in the entire league. But that year-to-year consistency just isn't there. His Net Rating is based on five years of play, which have been filled with more bad than good. Daniil Tarasov was fine in a backup capacity last year in 24 games and finished the year strong. If he can take on more this upcoming season, maybe it will help stabilize one position for Columbus.
The best case
The entire team rallies amidst tragedy led by enormous leaps from the young core. Fantilli, Johnson, Sillinger and Jiřiček look like future stars and the Blue Jackets show clear-cut progression to future contention. They hit 80 points and get an unlikely draft lottery win.
The worst case
The kids continue to struggle defensively at the NHL level, leaving a weak defense corps and goaltending exposed on a nightly basis. Questions about how bright the team's future can be come to the forefront.
The bottom line
For the Blue Jackets, this season will be judged on how they support the Gaudreau family, their fan base and each other. If hockey can help with the healing process, and there's reason to believe that to be possible, results will be secondary.
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
(Photo of Zach Werenski: Patrick Smith / )
