Democrats can’t roll back Republican wave in Florida, though Amesty in trouble

Democratic hopes of flipping Florida's U.S. Senate seat and clawing back enough districts to end the Republican supermajority in Tallahassee were dashed Tuesday, as the state solidified its status as a red bastion.

But Democrats could claim at least one high-profile victory in Central Florida, as Monique Worrell reclaimed her position as Orange-Osceola state attorney.

And Democrat Leonard Spencer was leading embattled Republican state Rep. Carolina Amesty, who was indicted earlier this year on four felony counts following reporting by the Orlando Sentinel.

Meanwhile, Orange County voters held the line against sprawl by defeating commission candidates seen as too close to developers and passing two amendments to protect rural areas.

In the only statewide candidate race, GOP U.S. Sen. Rick Scott had the quickest and easiest victory of his career, with the Associated Press calling the race for the former governor just one minute after polls closed.

Scott's previous three wins had come by narrow margins, with his first Senate win in 2018 embroiled in a recount.

But this year, former Democratic state Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell couldn't take advantage of abortion rights being on the ballot as a constitutional amendment and lost to Scott by more than 12 percentage points.

Scott's swift victory in a race that some polls had indicated was potentially winnable for Democrats kicked off a big night for the GOP in the state.

Florida Democrats, coming off one of their party's worst performances in 2022, had expressed optimism about winning back blue-leaning districts in Orlando suburbs won by Republicans in the red wave two years ago.

Flipping five state House seats and two state Senate seats would have ended the GOP supermajority in each chamber, giving the Democrats more say in the legislative process in Tallahassee.

Amesty's seat had been seen as the best opportunity for a Democratic pickup in Central Florida, following her indictment in August on four felony charges related to the alleged forgery of a man's signature on an employment form she notarized as an administrator for her family's small school.

Democrat Spencer, a former executive for The Walt Disney Company, had a slim lead of just 227 votes over Amesty Tuesday night with hundreds of mail ballots yet to be counted. Amesty barely outpolled Spencer in the Orange County part of the district, where she lives, but Spencer made up ground in Osceola, and performed particularly well in mail votes counted so far.

Overall, though, Democrats did not reach their goals in Central Florida. Republicans even won back a House seat in eastern Orange and Osceola counties they had lost in a special election earlier this year to Democrat Tom Keen.

Keen's win at the time had been trumpeted as a potential preview of a good Democratic year, but Erika Booth, an Osceola school board member, avenged her January defeat with a nearly 5-point victory.

Democrat Nate Douglas, who outraised Republican state Rep. Susan Plasencia, lost a narrow race in eastern Orange and Seminole counties. Fellow Democrat Sarah Henry, making her second bid against GOP state Rep. David Smith in southern Seminole, suffered yet another close loss.

Republican state Rep. Paula Stark, seen as one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in a seat thought to lean heavily Democratic, also had a 2-point victory over Democrat Maria Revelles.

Republican state Reps. Doug Bankson in western Orange and Seminole counties and Susan Plakon in northern Seminole County had easy victories.

Democratic incumbent state Reps. Anna Eskamani, LeVon Bracy Davis and Johanna Lopez kept their seats, while Jose Alvarez's victory kept the Osceola seat of outgoing state Rep. Kristin Arrington in Democratic hands.

Arrington herself was elected to the state Senate to succeed state Sen. Victor Torres, while Republican state Rep. Keith Truenow also won a state Senate seat in Lake and western Orange counties.

In the Orange-Osceola state attorney race, Worrell easily defeated incumbent Andrew Bain with a 15-point win.

Bain, who ran as a non-partisan candidate, had been appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis after DeSantis removed Worrell in 2023, claiming she was not tough on crime. The GOP primary winner, Seth Hyman, controversially dropped out of the race in September.

Orange County voters also held the line on development, approving two charter amendments by wide margins. Amendment 9 will establish a rural boundary on both sides of the county, while Amendment 10 gives the county commission veto power over developers seeking to annex county land into cities.

The votes took place in the wake of the failed annexation of 80 square miles of ranch land into Orlando's city limits, which also may have played a role in the Orange commission races.

Kelly Semrad, a University of Central Florida professor and founder of the Save Orange County environmental group, defeated former Winter Park Mayor Steve Leary for a seat on the commission. Incumbent commissioners Nicole Wilson and Mayra Uribe also kept their seats, with Wilson winning a runoff with businessman Austin Arthur and Uribe defeating outgoing state Sen. Linda Stewart.

Leary and Arthur had received major support from development interests, while Stewart had worked with a tourism lobbyist to draft legislation.

The next elections in Orange and Seminole counties will also be overseen by new supervisors.

In Orange, former state Rep. Karen Castor Dentel ran away with the vote in a four-way race among four Democrats. Outgoing GOP supervisor Glen Gilzean, a controversial appointment in March by DeSantis, did not run for a full term and no other Republican entered the race.

In Seminole, Republican Amy Pennock defeated Democrat Deborah Poulalion. Pennock had bested outgoing supervisor Chris Anderson in the August GOP primary.

There was no drama in the races for Central Florida's congressional seats, with incumbents of both parties easily holding off challengers.

U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost, D-Orlando, trounced Republican Willie Montague, while U.S. Rep. Darren Soto, D-Kissimmee, fended off a challenge from wealthy self-financing Republican Thomas Chalifoux.

U.S. Reps. Cory Mills. R-New Smyrna Beach, and Dan Webster, R-Clermont, also defeated Democratic challengers Jennifer Adams and Barbie Harden Hall, respectively.