International Industry Ponders Impact of Second Trump Presidency

The international film industry is grappling with the potential implications of a second Donald Trump presidency , with concerns ranging from trade relations with China to the future of state-level production incentives when the once and future POTUS takes the oath of office early next year.

"When I saw the results come in, and Trump had won, I just wanted to put my head down on my desk and weep," said one indie industry vet, "but in terms of the business, we'll have to see how much will really change."

The most significant impact of a new Trump presidency could be on international relations and trade deals. On the campaign trail, Trump talked up his protectionist bonafides, worrying many that his administration could throw up new barriers to doing business with global partners.

Perhaps the most significant immediate concern centers on U.S.-China relations, with fears that Trump's aggressive trade policies could impact Hollywood's access to the world's second-largest film market. Despite the waning popularity of U.S. content in China since the pandemic, American films continue to generate substantial revenue there, with U.S. titles earning $797.3 million in the first eleven months of 2024. Sony's Venom: The Last Dance has demonstrated continued audience appetite for American blockbusters, accumulating $76 million at the Chinese box office.

Trump's campaign promise to raise tariffs to 60 percent on Chinese-made products could prompt retaliatory measures from Beijing, potentially affecting the film industry more directly than during his first term. Unlike his previous presidency, experts suggest the entertainment sector may not escape unscathed in a renewed trade war.

However, not all Chinese industry figures share these concerns. Simone Yang, a producer with Beijing-based Red Brief, notes Trump's peculiar popularity in China: "Trump has always been quite popular in China because some of his policies during his first presidency were closely related to China, but his style of conduct was so different from that of China's leaders that netizens began calling him the 'King of know it all.'" Billionaire Trump backer Elon Musk is also popular in China, Yang notes — "people marvel at his business and engineering achievements" — and his support for Trump has attracted the attention of many Chinese fans. "In China, there are many individual investors in the stock market, so some people are concerned about the economic impact of Trump's new policies. The Chinese film industry and the U.S. film business need to increase mutual understanding, but there is still huge commercial potential," she notes.

The impact on U.S.-Latin American film collaborations is another area of concern. Guillermo Blanco, CEO of TheGseven, a production and distribution company operating in both Los Angeles and Bogotá, Colombia, fears "restrictive immigration policies" under a new Trump presidency "may limit certain collaborations," though he says a shift may also present "an opportunity to strengthen our productions and promote authentic stories that reflect our identity and cultural diversity."

One silver lining for the industry may be the continued support for state-level production incentives, particularly in Republican-controlled states. Some of the biggest production hubs for independent films are located in red states, including Kentucky, Oklahoma, Mississippi and Texas. This suggests that regardless of federal policy, state-level support for film production may remain robust.

Australian producer Jim Robison of Lunar Pictures highlights the complex nature of U.S. production incentives from an international perspective. "When we come to America, it's like coming to Europe where we have to deal with all of the different states to navigate rebates and support, and it's frankly confusing as hell in the U.S.," he says. "But I guess the most we can realistically hope for is that he just leaves the entertainment industry alone."

The industry's relationship with Washington D.C., may require recalibration. "During the Biden administration, much of the contact [between the film industry and the U.S. government] was led by unions," notes Jean Prewitt , CEO of indie film association IFTA, which runs the AFM . "It's still an open question how engagement might work under a Trump-Vance administration."

However, there are examples of successful bipartisan cooperation on industry issues. Prewitt pointed to Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), who "really carried the water" to get the Protecting Lawful Streaming Act passed in 2020, closing copyright loopholes that were costing the industry billions of dollars in piracy violations.

The Motion Picture Association has already struck a conciliatory tone, releasing a statement congratulating the president-elect and highlighting the industry's economic impact: "The film, TV and streaming industry... supports more than 2.7 million American jobs, boosts more than 240,000 businesses in cities and small towns across the country, and delivers over $242 billion in wages to our workforce each year."

California Governor Gavin Newsom, who recently backed an increase in the state's annual film and TV tax credits program to $750 million , has signaled a more combative stance toward the incoming administration. "California will seek to work with the incoming president, but let there be no mistake, we intend to stand with states across our nation to defend our Constitution and uphold the rule of law," says Newsom, who has positioned himself as a defender of reproductive rights, immigrants and LGBTQ+ rights.

Despite the uncertainty, many industry veterans point to the sector's demonstrated ability to weather various challenges. As George Hamilton, CCO of U.K.-based Protagonist Pictures, puts it: "We've had the strikes, COVID, multiple different presidents, and we're still here, still surviving. And the world still needs movies, maybe now more than ever."