Donald Trump And The Climate Consequences Of The 2024 US Election
In the wake of Donald Trump's election victory, climate activists and the broader sustainability community are understandably alarmed. The policies of the incoming administration will be a significant setback on climate progress. Four more years of Trump will likely put the global climate goal of 1.5°C out of reach, making devastating climate impacts more likely. However, the radical shift in American policy may also bring dynamics that could temper the fallout and reveal unexpected resilience in national and international climate action.
This piece unpacks three major impacts of Trump's presidency on American and global climate policy: climate reporting and regulation, international climate commitments, and the renewable energy transition. Each area will guide you through both the significant challenges and the potential silver linings that could emerge in the months ahead.
The Challenges:The Trump administration is expected to make sweeping changes that will directly affect climate reporting and regulation. The first major area of concern is the continuing politicization of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria and related climate policies. Under Trump, we're likely to see renewed federal resistance to corporate sustainability efforts, creating barriers for institutions pushing for greener business models and collaborating with their international peers. In terms of regulation, initiatives like the SEC's climate disclosure rule and the Federal Reserve's climate stress testing exercises could be shelved or severely curtailed.
This rollback will empower those critical of climate-forward policies, especially Republican attorneys general, to more aggressively target financial institutions committed to net-zero goals. Furthermore, states implementing progressive climate standards, such as California, could face heightened pressure from federal authorities, which may impede the widespread adoption of climate disclosure requirements.
The Silver Linings:Despite these federal setbacks, the push for climate transparency and accountability won't vanish. California's significant influence is a critical counterbalance, as seen previously with its fuel efficiency standards on automakers. State laws like SB 253, SB 261, and the newly passed SB 219 will continue to hold companies accountable for their emissions and climate risk disclosures. Additionally, large U.S. companies operating internationally will still face reporting requirements under the European Union's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which will require extensive climate and sustainability disclosures for multinational firms operating in Europe. Even without federal backing, the private sector will still find climate reporting on the agenda.
The Challenges:Trump's election will greatly limit America's role in international climate agreements. His well-known climate skepticism likely signals a repudiation of the Paris Agreement , as during his previous administration. This withdrawal not only reduces America's own climate commitments but also undermines the motivation of other major emitters, like China and India, to uphold their pledges. According to an analysis by the Rhodium Group , a Trump-led rollback of Biden's green policies could contribute an estimated 4 billion tons of additional CO2eq emissions by 2030 and 25 billion tons by 2050. Such increases may blow through the world's scant carbon budget and push the world beyond its 1.5°C limit.
Beyond domestic emissions, Trump's opposition to international cooperation may have a greater effect on the global emissions trajectory. The return to his "America First" philosophy climate risks isolating the U.S. from a growing coalition of nations tackling climate change. This stance may damage diplomatic relations and weaken multinational efforts to curb emissions among the other largest emitters such as China and India.
The Silver Lining:However, international climate action has evolved significantly since Trump's last term. During his previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, U.S. cities, states, and companies quickly mobilized under the "We're Still In" initiative, signaling their commitment to climate action regardless of federal support. Expect similar responses now, as state-level policies and international initiatives remain increasingly resilient. Moreover, the global consensus around net-zero, since COP26 in Glasgow, is now more deeply entrenched worldwide. America's absence at the negotiation table will slow progress, but the momentum for decarbonization is far broader and deeper than it was in 2016.
The Challenge:Trump's administration is expected to hinder the renewable energy transition in various ways. One anticipated step will be gutting Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a cornerstone of recent American climate policy incentivizing renewable energy development. Alongside this, there may be an increase in oil and gas leases on federal lands, a shift that will directly benefit the fossil fuel industry. Such actions would slow growth of the U.S. clean energy sector, placing the nation at a competitive disadvantage as other regions, notably China and Europe, surge ahead in low-carbon technology, green investment, and renewable capacity.
Federal backpedaling risks ceding technological leadership to international competitors. In 2022 alone, renewables accounted for approximately 80% of global new power generation capacity , a clear sign of the energy transition's unstoppable momentum. A weakened U.S. presence in this sector could lead to long-term economic consequences, making America less attractive to investors in the burgeoning fields of green energy and infrastructure.
The Silver Lining:Despite anticipated federal resistance, renewable energy growth across the U.S. remains more resilient than it might initially appear. The economic advantages of renewables have spurred adoption in Republican-leaning states, notably Texas and Iowa , which are now major producers of wind and solar energy. These states recognize the local job creation, lower energy costs, and economic stability that renewable investments bring, making it unlikely they will abandon their commitments.
Surprisingly, U.S. fossil fuel production has remained relatively constant across administrations, with world-leading oil and gas output under both Democratic and Republican leaderships. This continuity underscores that market forces, more than federal policies, often dictate energy production trends. While Trump may deprioritize green energy incentives, the economic rationale for renewables persists, offering a sound foundation for continued growth.
Looking ahead to 2025Trump's presidency undoubtedly complicates America's climate trajectory, but the picture is not entirely bleak. State-level policies, international action, and market dynamics offer hope that the momentum toward a low-carbon future will continue, albeit at a slower pace.
Ultimately, the U.S. stands at a crossroads: if it wants to remain competitive in the global economy, it must not ignore the potential of green technologies. Perhaps a tone that will appeal to the incoming administration is that continued investment is not an environmental issue, but it is about maintaining America's economic standing in a changing world.
As other nations race towards a cleaner, more sustainable future, Trump's choices could make or break its competitiveness on the international stage. If America aims to be at the forefront of tomorrow's economy, it cannot be about red or blue, but green.
