Election primer: Number of Pa. Electoral College votes shrinking. Here’s why
Many things change between election cycles, but one constant remains in play: Pennsylvania is potentially the most important state in the country on Election Day.
Focus on the Keystone State comes largely due to its status as a "swing state," one that can reasonably be won by either the Republican or Democratic candidate in a statewide or national election. Several swing states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, have some of the largest electoral vote totals in the country, making them key targets for presidential campaigns.
Pennsylvania's total number of electoral votes is now at its lowest point in more than two centuries, but the commonwealth still has the fifth-most votes among all U.S. states.
Here's what you need to know about Pennsylvania's electoral votes, the Electoral College, swing states and more heading into the 2024 presidential election.
Why is Pennsylvania losing electoral votes?
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts a census every 10 years to count the country's residents, determine how to distribute representation in Congress and collect data regarding the American population's race, sex, ethnicity, age, marital status, economic background an more. Census figures also shape the allocation of electoral votes to each U.S. state.
Although its population did not shrink between 2010 and 2020, Pennsylvania's total electoral votes fell to 19 for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections. That mark is down from 20 votes for the 2012, 2016 and 2020 cycles and 21 votes for the 2004 and 2008 cycles.
Pennsylvania's total population grew from about 12.71 million in 2010 to about 12.99 million in 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Despite the growth, the Keystone State's population is proportionally smaller than some other states, resulting in a lower number of electoral votes for the next decade.
Pennsylvania joins California (54 electoral votes in 2024), New York (28), Illinois (19), Ohio (17), Michigan (15) and West Virginia (4) in losing one electoral vote under the new Electoral College map. Texas (40 electoral college votes) gained two votes through the new map, while Florida (30), North Carolina (16), Colorado (10), Oregon (8) and Montana (4) each gained one vote.
No state has more electoral votes than California.
Texas, Florida and New York follow behind the Golden State before Pennsylvania and Illinois, which are tied with 19 electoral votes apiece.
Pennsylvania's new electoral vote total puts the commonwealth at its lowest number since 1800 when it had 15 electoral votes, though the Electoral College itself looked far different with just over a dozen territories voting. Back then, just 70 of the 138 electoral votes at the time were required to elect Thomas Jefferson as president.
The Keystone State's population has grown significantly since those early elections, but Pennsylvania topped out with 38 electoral votes for five presidential elections starting in 1912 and ending in 1928. Since reaching that peak, Pennsylvania has lost between one and three electoral votes as a result of each conducted Census every decade.
Is Pennsylvania really that important during a presidential election?
Yes. Over the last 50 years, Pennsylvania has almost always wound up "swinging" toward the eventual elected president as candidates try to acquire the simple majority of 270 electoral votes needed to win a presidential election.
Here's a look at how the Keystone State has swung since the 1976 presidential election, with the candidates who were elected highlighted in bold text:
• 1976: Jimmy Carter (D), 27 electoral votes
• 1980: Ronald Reagan (R) 27 electoral votes
• 1984: Ronald Reagan (R), 25 electoral votes
• 1988: George H. W. Bush (R), 25 electoral votes
• 1992: Bill Clinton (D), 23 electoral votes
• 1996: Bill Clinton (D), 23 electoral votes
• 2000: Al Gore (D), 23 electoral votes
• 2004: John Kerry (D), 21 electoral votes
• 2008: Barack Obama (D), 21 electoral votes
• 2012: Barack Obama (D), 20 electoral votes
• 2016: Donald Trump (R), 20 electoral votes
• 2020: Joe Biden (D), 20 electoral votes
Since 1900, the winner in 24 of 31 presidential elections (77%) wound up carrying Pennsylvania once ballots were cast. Results within the Keystone State are often very close, especially in recent history. Biden won Pennsylvania by just 1.2% in 2020, while Trump claimed the commonwealth by an even more narrow 0.7% margin in 2016.
How can I register to vote before it's too late?
Pennsylvanians must register to vote at least 15 days before the next election. That means you need to be registered by Monday, Oct. 21 if you plan on voting in the 2024 presidential election Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Those who register in Pennsylvania must be a U.S. citizen for at least one month before the election. They must also reside in the commonwealth and their election district for at least 30 days. Voters must be at least 18 years old on or before Election Day.
Once you're ready to register, you can get started online by visiting pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/VoterRegistrationApplication.aspx , applying through the mail or completing forms in person at your county's election office, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation offices or other government buildings.
Pennsylvanians have plenty of options to cast their ballots. You can visit your polling place in person on Election Day, vote by mail or even use an absentee ballot if you aren't in Pennsylvania or encounter an emergency that would otherwise prevent you from voting.
Mail-in and absentee ballot applications must be received by your county's election office by 5 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 29. Completed ballots, meanwhile, must be received by 8 p.m. Nov. 5 to get counted.
You can always check your voter registration status online through the Pennsylvania Department of State's virtual portal by searching your name, driver's license number of Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ID number. If you search by name, be sure to list your first and last name, date of birth, ZIP code and county of residence.
As of early September, more than 8.88 million Pennsylvanians were registered to vote. Notably, that figure is down from the 9.09 million residents who were eligible to vote during the 2020 presidential election.
Republicans now hold voter registration advantages in four counties — Beaver, Berks, Bucks and Fayette — that previously leaned in favor of Democrats, according to 2020 end-of-year registration data published in 2021. Registration edges aside, Pennsylvania remains home to more than 3.91 million registered Democrats and about 3.57 million registered Republications.
To learn more about voting in Pennsylvania, visit pa.gov/en/agencies/vote.html .
Originally Published: October 6, 2024 at 10:59 a.m.
