Everything to Know on MLB Playoff 2024 Races, Tiebreakers, Best Matchups, More

Kerry Miller Featured Columnist IV

Everything to Know on MLB Playoff 2024 Races, Tiebreakers, Best Matchups, More

Jack Gorman/ Just a little over one week remains in Major League Baseball's 2024 regular season, yet there's still so very much up in the air when it comes to the postseason picture.
Only five of the 12 spots have been clinched, and no one has secured a first-round bye. Those top two seeds are *most likely* going to go to New York and Cleveland in the American League and Philadelphia and Los Angeles in the National League, but we'll see if all four can seal the deal down the stretch.
While there's at least some degree of separation up top, the races for the three wild card spots in each league are complete chaos—with copious amounts of head-to-head intrigue remaining on the schedule. It almost feels like a foregone conclusion that there is going to be a tie for the No. 6 seed heading into the final day of the regular season in at least one of the leagues, if not both.
As we brace for the closing stretch, let's take a moment to digest the current state of the standings, including biggest remaining regular-season matchups and the tiebreakers that potentially could come into play. We'll also make note of which players and teams have been scorching hot, and offer up a few dream matchups, both for the World Series and in the earlier rounds of October.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are current through the start of play Saturday, but standings/records were updated at the end of play Saturday night.

American League Landscape

Jim McIsaac/Matchups if the Season Ended Today
First-Round Byes: No. 1 New York Yankees (91-64)^ and No. 2 Cleveland Guardians (90-66)*
Wild Card Series 1: No. 6 Minnesota Twins (81-73) at No. 3 Houston Astros (85-70)
Wild Card Series 2: No. 5 Kansas City Royals (82-73) at No. 4 Baltimore Orioles (86-69)
*clinched division
^clinched playoffs
What's Still Up for Grabs?
No. 1 Seed: Yankees lead Guardians by 1.5 games
AL East: Yankees lead Orioles by 5 games
AL West: Astros lead Seattle Mariners by 5 games
Wild-Card Standings:
1. Orioles: +4.5 games
2. Royals: +0.5 games
3. Twins: -
4. Detroit Tigers (81-74): 0.5 GB
5. Seattle Mariners (80-75): 1.5 GB
6. Tampa Bay Rays (77-78): 4.5 GB
7. Boston Red Sox (76-78): 5 GB

Biggest Regular-Season Matchups Remaining

Orioles Yankees (Tuesday-Thursday)

Mariners Astros (Monday-Wednesday)

Orioles Twins (Friday-Sunday)

Astros Guardians (Friday-Sunday)

Royals Braves (Friday-Sunday)

Schedule Observations

Notably absent from the big remaining matchups, the Detroit Tigers finish out the year at home against the sub-.500 Tampa Bay Rays and the sub-.250 Chicago White Sox. The tear they have been on since mid-August to get back into this race has been something else, and they just might seal the deal with a six-game winning streak.

On the flip side of that coin, Baltimore's remaining schedule is brutal, going on the road to face a division rival trying to lock up home-field advantage and a Minnesota squad that might be battling for that No. 6 seed until the bitter end. The O's should still make the playoffs as long as they don't lose all of those games, but they've already been limping to the finish line and they might back their way into October.

Lastly, all eyes on that Mariners-Astros series early in the week. Houston is darn near locked in as the AL West champ, but things could get mighty interesting if Seattle pulls off the sweep. Even if the M's don't quite catch Houston, winning those three could put them right on the brink of the wild-card cut line, prior to finishing the season with three games at home against Oakland.

American League Tiebreakers

Scott Taetsch/ As a reminder, Game 163 no longer exists, and hasn't for several years now. All ties—like Houston-Texas for the AL West in 2023—will be broken based on what happened during the regular season.
In order, those tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record
2. Intradivision record (games against the other four teams in their own division, even if it's a tie between teams in different divisions)
3. Interdivision record (games against the 10 teams from the other two divisions in their league)
4. Last half of intraleague games
5. Last half of intraleague games plus one

If there happens to be a tie between three (or more) teams for one spot, it's still the same sequence of tiebreakers, but it does get considerably more complex.

Here are the possibly pertinent head-to-head tiebreakers:

: 4-2 vs. Cleveland, 6-1 vs. Houston, 5-2 vs. Kansas City

: 4-3 vs. Orioles

: 6-4 vs. New York (three games remaining), 4-2 vs. Kansas City, 3-0 vs. Minnesota (three games remaining), TBD vs. Detroit

: 2-1 vs. Cleveland (three games remaining), 5-2 vs. Baltimore, 4-3 vs. Kansas City, 4-2 vs. Detroit

: 8-5 vs. Cleveland, 7-6 vs. Detroit

: 7-6 vs. Detroit, 7-6 vs. Kansas City, 5-2 vs. Seattle, 4-2 vs. Houston

: 5-1 vs. Seattle, 3-2 vs. Baltimore (one game remaining)

: 6-4 vs. Houston (three games remaining)

Who's Hot in the American League?

Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via
Julio Rodríguez, CF, Seattle Mariners
It might be too little too late for the M's, but at least J-Rod has sprung to life after spending just about the entire season with a sub-.700 OPS. Dating back to August 28, he is hitting .352/.402/.626 with seven home runs and four stolen bases, including his first multi-HR game of the year on Friday.
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
As a whole, Baltimore has been sputtering, averaging just 3.8 runs while going 15-20 dating back to August 10. Henderson is back in a big way, though, after a pretty mediocre run through July and August. Through 17 games played in September, his triple-slash is at .348/.410/.623 with four home runs and six stolen bases.
LHP Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
Houston's ace had been just kind of OK through the end of June, but he has "We'd be talking about him for AL Cy Young were it not for Tarik Skubal" good since then. Over his last 12 starts dating back to July 10, Valdez has a 1.70 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. He had been their No. 2 starter behind Justin Verlander in each of the last three Octobers, but there's no question he'll be out there for Game 1 of the wild card series.
RHP Pablo López, Minnesota Twins
Similar to Valdez, Lopez got out to a rough start to the year, carrying a 5.11 ERA into the All-Star Break. But in 11 starts since then, he has given the Twins 10 quality starts, including four scoreless outings, with a cumulative 2.01 ERA. Unfortunately, he probably wouldn't pitch until Game 2 of the wild card series, based on where Minnesota is at in its rotation. But if they get the No. 6 seed, maybe he'll be out there for the opener against Valdez for one hell of a pitcher's duel.
Detroit Tigers
No one has been hotter than the striped cats. Prior to the loss to Baltimore on Friday, they had won 25 of their previous 35 games, limiting opponents to 2.9 runs per contest. And they're going to end the season with three home games against the White Sox, as if they need any additional confidence.
Cleveland Guardians
August was rough for the Guards. At one point, they had lost 16 out of 24 games, turning a six-game lead atop the AL Central into a tie with the Royals. But they have rediscovered their mojo, running away with the division by going 15-7 dating back to August 28.

American League Matchups Wish List

Ed Zurga/
We wanted Mookie Betts vs. Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NLCS last year.
But, OK, fine, we'll settle for Bobby Witt Jr. vs. Aaron Judge this October.
Beyond the AL MVP and first runner-up dynamic, though, this would simply be an entertaining ALDS clash. New York's final payroll might end up being more than what Kansas City spent for 2022-24 combined, yet no lead in either direction will feel safe in a matchup between teams with mutually problematic bullpens.
Dating back to 2015, Houston has won two World Series and a combined total of 62 postseason games.
In that same time, Baltimore has gone 0-4 in the playoffs.
But with the Orioles more than two years removed from completing their tank job rebuild and loaded with young talent while the Astros aren't getting any younger, an October showdown between the two could be something of a ceremonial changing of the guard—though, only if Baltimore wins the series.
Cleveland has the longest active drought of seasons played without winning a World Series, last doing so in 1948. That's 75 years. The only other teams north of 50 are the Padres and Brewers, both of whom became franchises 21 years after Cleveland's most recent championship.
But Seattle is the only active franchise that has never been to a World Series.
Would be nice if they squared off so at least one of them would be guaranteed to advance. Though, if any postseason pairing could figure out a way for both teams to get simultaneously eliminated on some arcane technicality, it'd be this one.

National League Landscape

John Fisher/Matchups if the Season Ended Today
First-Round Byes: No. 1 Philadelphia Phillies (92-63)^ and No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers (92-63)^
Wild Card Series 1: No. 6 New York Mets (86-69) at No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers (88-67)*
Wild Card Series 2: No. 5 Arizona Diamondbacks (87-68) at No. 4 San Diego Padres (89-66)
*clinched division
^clinched playoffs
What's Still Up for Grabs?
No. 1 Seed: Phillies lead Dodgers on head-to-head tiebreaker
NL East: Phillies lead Mets by 6 games
NL West: Dodgers lead Padres by 3 games and Diamondbacks by 5 games
Wild-Card Standings:
1. Padres: +3 games
2. Diamondbacks: +1 game
3. Mets: -
4. Atlanta Braves (84-71): 2 GB

Biggest Regular-Season Matchups Remaining

Padres Dodgers (Tuesday-Thursday)

Mets Braves (Tuesday-Thursday)

Braves vs. Royals (Friday-Sunday)

Mets Brewers (Friday-Sunday)

Padres Diamondbacks (Friday-Sunday)

Schedule Observations

Holy final week drama, Batman.

Both the Mets and the Padres finish out the regular season with six road games against possible/definite playoff teams. And if the Padres happen to win those first three in Los Angeles, the NL West—a division where the Dodgers have not been in second place at any point in this entire season—suddenly turns into a photo finish.

Now, Los Angeles ends the season against Colorado while San Diego has to play at Arizona, so the Dodgers would probably still prevail in the end. But it could get interesting.

It's that Mets-Braves series that we've had circled for months, though, and it's shaping up to be as crucial as we imagined it could be.

If the Mets win at least two of the three, we can probably stick a fork in Atlanta. But with that season series presently tied at 5-5, two (or three) wins by the Braves would both close/erase the current gap and give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over New York, should it come to that.

And then all four wild card contenders close out the season with a three-game series against another playoff-caliber opponent. (Though, the Mets may catch a break if the Brewers are already locked into the No. 3 seed by the time that series begins.)

It's not the eight-car pile-up for one spot that it looked like it could be around the trade deadline, but it's going to be an exhilarating finish.

National League Tiebreakers

Kevork Djansezian/ As a reminder, Game 163 no longer exists, and hasn't for several years now. All ties—like Atlanta-New York for the NL East in 2022 and Arizona-Miami for the NL No. 5 seed in 2023—will be broken based on what happened during the regular season.
In order, those tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record
2. Intradivision record (games against the other four teams in their own division, even if it's a tie between teams in different divisions)
3. Interdivision record (games against the 10 teams from the other two divisions in their league)
4. Last half of intraleague games
5. Last half of intraleague games plus one

If there happens to be a tie between three (or more) teams for one spot, it's still the same sequence of tiebreakers, but it does get considerably more complex.

Here are the possibly pertinent NL head-to-head tiebreakers:

: 5-1 vs. Los Angeles, 4-2 vs. Milwaukee, 5-1 vs. San Diego, 7-5 vs. New York (one game remaining, but advantage clinched)

: 4-3 vs. Milwaukee, 7-6 vs. Arizona, 4-2 vs. New York

: 3-0 vs. New York (three games remaining)

: 4-3 vs. Atlanta, 7-3 vs. Los Angeles (three games remaining, but advantage clinched), 5-2 vs. Milwaukee

: 5-2 vs. San Diego, 4-3 vs. Arizona

: 4-3 vs. Philadelphia, 4-2 vs. Milwaukee (one game remaining, but advantage clinched)

: 5-2 vs. Arizona

Who's Hot in the National League?

Orlando Ramirez/
Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Dodgers
It's possible you've heard, but this Ohtani character is having a pretty decent year. In becoming the founding member of the 50/50 (and counting) club, Ohtani is merely leading the majors in both home runs (23) and stolen bases (29) since the All-Star Break. His batting average (.266) is 50 points lower than in the first half (.316), but the Dodgers just might be able to live with that.
Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
At the end of June, Suárez was batting .196/.279/.312 for the year with just six home runs. He proceeded to hit 10 round-trippers in July alone and has posted a .370 batting average and 1.105 OPS with 10 more home runs since August 23. Between his turnaround and Corbin Carroll's similarly-timed surge, it has become just about impossible to find outs in that Diamondbacks lineup.
LHP Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Sale has been great all season, allowing more than two earned runs in just three of his 29 starts. But all three of those starts were quite a while ago. He has a 1.96 ERA and an 11.7 K/9 in 18 starts dating back to early June, and it's a 1.44 ERA if you shrink the data set down to just the last eight games. He has an 18-3 record, and Atlanta is 22-7 in his starts. Truly, they'd be toast without him.
RHP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
It's hard to imagine Sale won't win the NL Cy Young, but it's plausible that Wheeler steals it with what has been an incredible finish of his own. In nine starts (all quality starts) since the beginning of August, Wheeler has a 1.71 ERA.
RHP Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres
Before his stints on the IL, Musgrove was a mess. He ended April with a 6.94 ERA. Since his return, however, he has logged 44.0 innings with a 2.05 ERA, even with a six-run inning two weeks ago against the Giants. Take out that temporary hiccup and he has been just about perfect.
New York Mets
The Mets are 61-34 in their last 95 games (best in baseball) as well as 23-10 in their last 33 games (best in baseball). When they went 3-6 during a nine-game stretch against Seattle, Oakland and Miami in mid-August, it sure felt like they hit a wall and were going to fade away down the stretch. Instead, they have been in a month-long sprint to the finish line and feel like the team to beat, regardless of their seed.
San Diego Padres
In between the above best in baseball stretches by the Mets, you've got the Padres with the best record at 47-25 over their last 72 games dating back to late June. And they've been particularly stingy as of late, sitting at 11-5 in September with 2.75 runs allowed per game. They've logged four shutouts this month, and came one strike away from another one Friday night.

National League Matchups Wish List

Justin Casterline/
In each of the past two years, Atlanta finished 14 games ahead of Philadelphia, only to be dethroned by its NL East rival in the NLDS.
Could the Braves flip the script by barely sneaking into the playoffs before knocking off the team it had been looking up at in the division standings all season long? Or would the Phillies add to their stockpile of recent bragging rights against Atlanta by delivering yet another knockout punch?
See: Guardians vs. Mariners at No. 3 on the AL Wish List.
Both San Diego and Milwaukee (then Seattle) became MLB franchises in 1969, and both are still looking for what would be their first World Series.
The Brewers did reach the promised land once in 1982, but lost in seven games to what is now a division rival in St. Louis. The Padres have gotten to the World Series twice—once in 1984, once in 1998—but won a combined total of one game.
Brewers vs. anyone in an NLCS would be a ratings nightmare for Major League Baseball, but at least Brewers-Padres would have that intriguing subplot.

Looking Ahead to the World Series

Sam Navarro/Current World Series Odds (per DraftKings )
1. Los Angeles Dodgers +330
2. New York Yankees +450
3. Philadelphia Phillies +500
4. Houston Astros +850
5. Cleveland Guardians +900
6. Baltimore Orioles +1100
7. San Diego Padres +1200
8. Milwaukee Brewers +1900
9. Arizona Diamondbacks +2000
10. Minnesota Twins +2500
11. Kansas City Royals / Atlanta Braves / New York Mets +3000
12. Detroit Tigers +9000
13. Seattle Mariners +20000
Matchups Wish List
The haters will say this is the absolute last matchup they would want in a World Series, but the ratings would tell us otherwise. It's the two best teams in this season, the two biggest franchises in baseball and the two most well-known stars in the sport. An Ohtani-Judge clash would be ginormous.
While we can't get a repeat of last year's World Series, a 2022 rematch could be great theatre. Maybe another no-hitter? Probably a few more Kyle Schwarber bombs. And maybe Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola (combined 0-3 with 14 ER allowed in 18.2 IP) would hold up better for the Phillies the second time around.
If we're clamoring for rematches, might as well put in a request for maybe the greatest World Series of all-time. That was in 1991, of course, when Minnesota and Atlanta—both one year removed from finishing dead last in their respective divisions—needed extra innings in Game 7 before the Twins got the job done. (We'll see if either team ultimately reaches the postseason, though.)
No rematch to consider here, as these teams have never met in the postseason before. But what would happen if these meteors collide? At the end of play on August 15, the Mets and Tigers were a combined 121-122, each multiple games out of the playoff picture. Since then, they've gone a combined 44-21.
Arizona is leading the majors in runs scored by a considerable margin, but Cleveland's bullpen has been historically great, with Emmanuel Clase leading a quartet of pitchers who have logged at least 60 innings each with sub-2.00 ERA. Mets-Tigers could be unstoppable force vs. unstoppable force, but this would be much more of a classic unstoppable force vs. immovable object scenario.
With an honorable mention to Mets-Guardians for the Francisco Lindor factor, the most intriguing "player facing his former team in the World Series" storyline might be Manny Machado against the Orioles. Trading him away in 2018 was when the O's unofficially embraced their tank job, and facing him for all the marbles six years later would be almost too perfect.
Royals-Mets could be great as a rematch of the 2015 World Series. Or a matchup with the Padres could be fun, with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha leading the charge against a team they pitched for last season. But any scenario where the Royals go straight from 106 losses to a World Series appearance would be incredible.
The polar opposite of Dodgers-Yankees from a ratings perspective, but the Mariners have never been to a World Series, the Brewers have only gotten there once (and lost in 1982) and there's the whole subplot of the Seattle Pilots becoming the Milwaukee Brewers eight years before the Mariners became a franchise.

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