First snow on the way for West Michigan? Here’s what you need to know:

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — A pattern change is set to bring chillier air to West Michigan by the end of the week, but will it be cold enough for the first snowflakes of the season?

There is no question it will be getting colder this week. Highs at the beginning of the week may hit 60 degrees before a burst of colder air surges in by Thursday.

Forecast models are consistent in bringing cold air into West Michigan Thursday and again for the weekend.

The intensity of the cold air is lacking but will be cold enough for snowflakes to form high in the sky in our mid- to upper-level cloud decks. As snow falls through the layers of clouds to the ground, there is a good chance most of it will melt into cold rain. Part of this is due to the abnormally warm waters of Lake Michigan right now.

Right now, it looks very possible West Michigan will see our first flakes of snow this week, but it won't be pretty. Any incoming snow will be mixed with (and overrun by) cold rain. While we might spot some flakes, accumulation is looking very unlikely.

A different kind of lake-effect

Lake Michigan's water temperatures are some of the warmest on record for this time of year with records dating back to the mid '90s.

If the incoming cold air was more intense, it might be able to counter the warm waters of the Big Lake. As of now, it appears these first waves of cold will likely not be chilly enough to survive a trip over Lake Michigan without warming up.

In the heart of winter, very cold air over a 33-degree Lake Michigan can produce some wild snow events. But, if the incoming cold is not robust enough, the effect of the lake will erode the cold and turn incoming precipitation into mostly rain at the surface from any snow trying to fall from aloft.

Are we behind in snow?

Every winter is different in West Michigan. Sometimes shockingly so. Still, a look at the records shows that typically Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Muskegon see their first dusting around November 8. Usually, the first inch of snow falls around November 20.

Storm Team 8 2024-2025 Winter Outlook

Last year, West Michigan received several inches of accumulating snow on . In contrast, the latest West Michigan has gone before receiving a full inch of snow on record is Christmas Eve in 2020.

Total snowfall prediction contest

There is plenty of time for winter weather to kick in. Storm Team 8 believes there is a better-than-average chance this December will be snowy, which doesn't always happen in West Michigan.

After this week, forecast models indicate a continuation of incoming cold air Thanksgiving week. These fresh rounds of cold would significantly cool Lake Michigan, prepping West Michigan for robust lake effect snow as the calendar flips to December.