Forecast: Arlington’s voter turnout has potential to reach 80%
It might not be a record-breaker, but Arlington ballots are adding up as the last three hours of voting approach.
And when all is said and done, turnout may be around 80% of the county's 161,000 active registered voters.
"It's possible," county elections director Gretchen Reinemeyer told ARLnow around 2 p.m., when five hours were left in Virginia's voting day.
Because of same-day registrations and mail-in ballots, "it's possible to count as many as 3% of ballots after Election Day," Reinemeyer said. "We are eagerly awaiting to see what the final number will be."
So, too, are local candidates and political parties. Having planned their get-out-the-vote strategies for months, little is being left to chance as the voting hours dwindle.
"We have volunteers handing out the Democratic sample ballot at all 54 of our precincts until polls close," the Arlington County Democratic Committee noted on X . "Thanks so much to our crew of 800 volunteers today making sure voters are informed."
The Arlington County Republican Committee has an uphill battle in Arlington — no Republican presidential candidate has won the county since Ronald Reagan in 1980, and no Republican nominee for County Board has won in a quarter-century.
"We're doing things a little bit differently these days," party leaders noted in a social-media post, referencing a more robust get-out-the-vote effort than in recent years.
Also on the ballot in Arlington are two candidates of the nascent Forward Party — County Board contender Madison Granger and School Board candidate James "Vell" Rives IV — plus a host of independents. Arlington voters are casting ballots for School Board, U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, president, five county bond referendums and a state constitutional amendment.
As of about 2 p.m., total turnout was about 65%, election officials said — 45% early (in person or by mail or dropbox) and about 20% to that point on Election Day. The last few hours before the 7 p.m. close of polls potentially could bring a surge of last-minute voters.
Results Should Start Rolling In By 7:30
Arlington election officials report precinct-by-precinct results to their state counterparts starting not long after polls close at 7 p.m. Early results should give political parties and general observers an idea of where local races are headed.
Arlington's lone County Board race on the ballot is being conducted for the first time in a general election under ranked-choice voting . Voters are able to rank their top three choices for the lone office on the ballot.
If any candidate wins more a majority on the first ballot, that machinery will not need to be cranked up. Likely the only one of the four County Board contenders with a route to the 50% first-round vote would be Democrat JD Spain, Sr.
Spain is being challenged by Granger, Republican Juan Carlos Fierro and independent Audrey Clement.
The winner will succeed Libby Garvey, who is wrapping up a 12-plus-year-stint on the County Board and a quarter century in local elected office.
In the School Board race, four candidates are vying to succeed incumbents Cristina Diaz Torres and David Priddy, who are not seeking re-election. Rives, Zuraya Tapia-Hadley, Kathleen Clark, and Paul Weiss share the ballot.
Those ballots cast at Arlington's 54 precincts today will be added to the more than 74,000 that were cast in advance, either by mail or through early in-person voting.
Until 2008, Virginia placed significant restrictions on those voting ahead of Election Day. As they were loosened, early voting grew — standing at 31% in both 2008 and 2016 and 25% in 2012.
In 2020, when voting took place during the Covid pandemic, polling places were open for in-person voting on Election Day, but more than 80% of Arlington voters who voted that year cast ballots early in person, by mail or via an election dropbox.
All-Time Participation High Came in 1992, 2012
To hit a modern-day (post-1960) turnout record, more than 85% of Arlington's 161,000 active registered voters will need to cast ballots.
That's something election officials don't expect. While Reinemeyer told ARLnow that 80% was possible, she said it potentially could be lower, around 77%.
The all-time record of 85% was achieved in 1992 (Clinton vs. Bush presidential election) and again in 2012 (Obama vs. Romney), with a turnout of 84% in 1960 (Kennedy vs. Nixon), according to county election officials.
Turnout in the 2020 presidential election was 79% of the county's 161,000 then-registered voters.
The 2024 election is the first in decades without a turnout prognostication from former county Treasurer Frank O'Leary, who made a hobby of extrapolating early-voting data to predict what the final turnout would be, and what it would mean for local elections.
O'Leary, who served 30 years in office before retiring in 2014, and who in his first (1983) race for treasurer won by a mere 89 votes, died in June at age 80.
Even though all 54 precincts will report their totals tonight, that's just the beginning of a week-long process that includes counting mail-in ballots that arrive before Friday midday, addressing the status of provisional ballots and having the Electoral Board certify the election next week.
