Friday Friendly Fire: Election Day post mortem, Biden’s blunder, and the racist mayor who won’t leave

Q. Donald Trump won the popular vote, is on track to win all seven swing states, and made huge gains among nearly every demographic group, and even in blue states, including New York, California, and New Jersey. Is this a blip, or have things changed?

Mike: We are in the midst of a realignment, as Hispanic men flipped by a whopping 33 points from the last election, and Trump won a much larger share of African American men than other Republicans can. Beyond that, working class voters and second-generation immigrant families are fleeing the Democratic Party. What remains to be seen, though, is whether this realignment can go beyond Trump to the party at large. When Obama won, many thought he created a news and lasting coalition, when in fact it was about Obama, not the party. Can Trump transfer this coalition to others?

Julie: Democrats have forgotten how to communicate with people normally. We are not perceived as the party of common sense because we don't know how to talk to anyone anymore. Trump got nearly one-third of the vote in New York City. He got 35% more votes in The Bronx, a largely Black and Latino borough, than he did in 2020. He gained 16% more in Queens, the most diverse large county in the nation, 20% more in Manhattan and 8% more in Brooklyn. You know what that tells me? We are so busy trying to figure out how not to offend every single cohort which our models show we need to win that we end up offending people who just want to hear us talk like normal people.

Julie: Maybe instead of catering to Latinos by calling them "Latinx" (which is not even a word), talk to them about issues they care about. Maybe instead of virtue signaling by putting "she/her/hers" after your name, you just correct someone if they mistakenly call you by the wrong pronoun and move on. Maybe instead of wondering which side you're going to offend by criticizing college kids for trashing campuses while protesting, you clearly say that life isn't a safe space and if you can't have a civil disagreement, get the hell off campus. This isn't rocket science: We lost the common-sense argument to . If that doesn't force us to take stock of our path, I don't know what does.

Q. In New Jersey, Trump won 1.9 million votes, the same total he won as in 2020. The difference is that Democratic turnout fell off a cliff, dropping from 2.6 million to 2.1 million. The same pattern is turning up in other states. Why did Harris fall so far behind Biden?

Mike: Two major reasons. The first is the prevalence of mail-in ballots in 2020, after COVID made it easier for less-motivated voters to vote - they tended to be Democratic voters that year. Second: Harris simply did not engender as much enthusiasm among the Democratic base as Trump does among his base.

Julie: I have a whole column about this, which I urge you to read. Here is what New Jersey Democrats have heard for the last year: Their governor tried to shove his wife down their throats in a US Senate primary after Senator Menendez was indicted and convicted of several felonies. The party structure in the state largely went along with him, a slap in the face to the Democratic base. Then, for good measure, the Legislature passed bills that got rid of transparency. Yes, the Legislature has done some good stuff on affordability, but since they can't communicate it effectively, no one knows about it. You want to motivate Democrats to come out and vote? Start reminding them about why they are Democrats. That begins with our political leaders governing like democrats (with a small d). New Jersey Democrats assumed that Harris would win in a cakewalk, so they just took out their frustration with the state party by staying home.

Q. Does President Biden deserve a share of the blame for this loss for staying in the race so long that an open and competitive primary became impossible? Would Gov. Gretchen Whitmer have had a shot to win?

Mike: Biden deserves most of the blame for this loss. If he had withdrawn from the race two years ago - when it was so obvious he should leave - Democrats could've had a traditional primary. Harris would have been tested during the primary, gotten stronger, and become a better candidate with a better campaign team, or she would've lost to somebody who ended up being a stronger candidate. Either way, the Democrats would've had a better chance against Trump.

Julie: Stop it. Biden and Harris presided over a record economy, for which Trump will take full credit as soon as the clock strikes noon on January 20th. The problem with the party goes deeper than any individual. We stopped talking to people like we speak their language ever since Bill Clinton got off the scene. Sometimes we win and sometimes we lose, but the fact that we lost to Trump means that we need to rejigger how our campaigns are run and communicated from scratch, regardless of who our candidate is.

Mike: And perhaps Democrats would've ended up with a better vice-presidential candidate with a primary process. Tim Walz seems like a nice guy, and I really liked my high school football coach, too, but my high school football coach wasn't ready to be vice president. Neither was Tim Walz. Walz got crushed in the debate, was a poor defender of Harris, lost his home county, and even his reliably safe Democratic home state wasn't called until 2:30 AM. This all goes back to not having a primary and not having the time to do things right. While Harris was handed the nomination, she was also put in a difficult spot.

Q. With Republicans taking control of the Senate, Trump may have a chance to expand the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, marginalizing liberal justice for another generation. After its rulings on abortion, criminal immunity for presidents, and the Chevron case, what other bold moves might be in store?

Mike: Most voters want the chief executive to shape the Supreme Court, and it seems like they're comfortable if it continues on this path. There is little evidence voters know or even care about the Chevron case.

Julie: The Supreme Court already signaled last year what's in store. IVF may be on the chopping block, along with marriage equality and voting rights. This is a nightmare scenario.

Q. In our state's one swing district, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. convincingly beat back a challenge from Democrat Sue Altman in the 7th. Does this race signal that candidates don't have to talk to the press anymore if they don't want to?

Mike: Tom simply has been doing a good job as a Congressman, and did a very good job as a state senator before that. He has earned the trust of the voters over many, many years. Voters have rewarded him for his job performance and obviously don't care if he speaks to the press.

Julie: Which press? You are upset that Kean did not speak to you or to Politico, but did he speak to podcasters or other influencers? This newspaper is going away in a few months, and many others will soon follow. That means that voters already get their information from other sources, including from content creators who have massive followings. Smart candidates will figure out who those are, and speak to them on their own terms.

Q Finally, in Clark, Mayor Sal Bonaccorso won in 2-1 landslide despite being caught on tape using the N-word, disparaging women cops, and facing an investigation into charges of corruption. Is it okay for me to boycott Clark's restaurants and bars, like, forever?

Mike: You are only punishing yourself if you don't go to the White Diamond for a burger.

Julie: If these are your metrics, you might want to start commuting to Toronto for dinner every night. Did you notice whom we just elected as our president?