German voters have just cheered Putin – and weakened the West
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) has won a last-minute comeback in Brandenburg's state election.
After trailing the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the polls for over a year, the SPD eked out a razor-thin 30.9 per cent to 29.2 per cent win.
The SPD's victory temporarily forestalled questions about the tenability of Scholz's leadership. But momentum remains on the AfD's side .
The AfD's explosion of support has profound implications for European security. Using the slogan "No more War," the party has fervently lobbied against German military assistance to Ukraine. Their message is ideological and populist.
AfD representatives has expressed the view that Russia's brutal military intervention on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's behalf as a justified anti-Islamist crusade, and invokes Russia's purported championship of traditional values to instill a deeper partnership. Yet it also sees opposing the mainstream political consensus on Ukraine as a recipe for electoral success.
A plurality of Germans persistently express concern about a spillover of the Ukraine War to Nato countries, and the potential for a Russian nuclear strike. A March 2024 ARD Deutschlandtrend poll revealed that 61 per cent of Germans oppose supplying Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine , as they fear the consequences of an escalated conflict with Russia.
The AfD's linkage of sanctions against Russia to rising energy prices and economic malaise also strikes a chord with voters.
Thus-far, Scholz has resisted AfD pressure to scale back support for Ukraine.
While Germany was reluctant to provide Ukraine with defensive weapons before Russia's full-scale invasion, it is more permissive than the US when it comes to allowing Ukraine to use its arms against Russian targets.
Yet there are some concerning cracks in Germany's hawkish façade.
The 100-billion-euro Bundeswehr modernisation fund, which was announced in 2022, has mostly been extinguished. Revenue shortfalls could cause German defense spending to plunge well below 2 per cent of GDP by 2027.
Continued AfD electoral successes could implore Scholz to revert to his prior scepticism of arming Ukraine. As Germany is a key backer of deterrence efforts in the Baltic States and of Moldova's attempts to guard against Russian hybrid threats, the impact of the AfD's electoral momentum has a far-reaching impact for Eastern European security.
Germany's shift in position would embolden Russia-friendly leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and dilute the EU's bloc-wide push for expanded armaments stockpiles.
It would also severely test the pro-Ukraine consensus amongst Europe's most powerful countries. It remains unclear whether French President Emmanuel Macron, who is flanked by Ukraine sceptics to his Left and Right, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is in coalition with the traditionally Russophile Lega Nord, will hold their ground.
Supporters of Ukraine breathed a sigh of relief after the AfD's Brandenburg loss. But it is an uneasy sigh. The AfD's peace at any cost approach to Russian aggression remains a clear and present danger to European security.
