Harris Blankets Airwaves, Trump Bets on Pennsylvania in Final Stretch

(Bloomberg) - Despite an election defined by surprises — Kamala Harris' entrance into the race, assassination attempts and geopolitical tensions — the US presidential race's fiercest face-off remains Pennsylvania, a state that political strategists have long predicted would be decisive.

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Advertising data show Donald Trump and his allied super political action committees — which have been at a spending disadvantage for much of the race — are pouring cash into Pennsylvania, surpassing Harris and her allies in the past two weeks, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of AdImpact data that calculated money spent per electoral vote at stake.

The Democrats have spent much of their massive war chest in recent months in the Blue Wall states, which includes Michigan and Wisconsin, in addition to Pennsylvania, but in recent weeks, they have also surged ad dollars into a second path to 270 electoral votes via the Sun Belt states — North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, in particular — that strategists are less convinced Harris will win.

AdImpact's data is constantly updating and captures most spending and future reservations for ads that air on broadcast, cable, satellite and radio as well as money spent on digital ads that come from Facebook and Google's transparency reports. The figures include some, but not all, money spent on streaming services, which can be targeted much more narrowly than traditional broadcast television ads.

"If she wins the Blue Wall states, she wins the White House," said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist and senior adviser to the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group. He added that North Carolina is definitely in play and Harris has a fighting chance to win all of the swing states. "It's the ground game now and she has a significant ground game advantage," he added.

Beyond the Blue Wall, North Carolina is still in play, said Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist who is supporting Harris, but she thinks the vice president's path to victory has gotten narrower. "Georgia and Arizona once seemed very winnable," she said, "but now are leaning probably not."

Final Weeks

While the Harris and Trump campaigns are publicly projecting confidence about their chances of winning each of the seven swing states, the data on future reservations for TV and radio show that they are placing their biggest bets in the coming weeks on Pennsylvania. Republicans' investment beats Democrats' in the commonwealth, though the Harris operation has likely poured money into upcoming online ads that is not fully reflected in AdImpact data. Campaign strategies can change as Election Day nears, and future ad buys don't show where campaigns will target ads on digital platforms and streaming services.

Andy Reilly, the Republican National Committeeman for Pennsylvania, says that both campaigns are acting as if they don't see a path to victory without winning the commonwealth, which has been the recipient of some $310 million in presidential ad spending between Aug. 1 and Oct. 16.

"I've never seen this level of money and attention for Pennsylvania in a presidential race," he said, adding that commercial breaks for televised sporting events feature three to five political ads.

Harris battleground states director Dan Kanninen said all seven battleground states are in play. "Kamala Harris is strong in both the Sun Belt and the Blue Wall, providing us with multiple pathways to 270, not just one," he added.

Despite spending hundreds of millions of dollars, Harris' poll numbers are weaker than either Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton's were, Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in an emailed statement. "Every dollar raised by President Trump's donors is valued, carefully considered, and wisely spent," she added.

The data also reveals a difference in strategy between the Harris campaign and her allied super PACs, which are barred from coordinating on most efforts. The campaign has directed 40% of its media buys to the four Sun Belt states, compared to just 25% for the outside groups since Aug. 1. Those PACs, meanwhile, have spent a relatively larger share of their ad dollars on national cable spots.

Nebraska Tie-Breaker

Winning the three Rust Belt states — and losing the Sun Belt — would put Harris at 269 electoral votes, one short of a victory. Democrats have spent about $10 million since Aug. 1 in Nebraska, largely to win the state's 2nd congressional district's one electoral vote, which is allocated separately from the statewide winner. That makes it their single most expensive electoral college vote in contention. (For comparison, in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Democrats have spent about $9 million for the states' 19 and 15 electoral votes, respectively, over the last two-and-a-half months.)

"If you're in Lincoln or Omaha, you don't get anything but political ads," said Ken Schilz, a former Nebraska state legislator. "You almost don't want to turn on the television because you can't get away from it."

Despite raising and spending hundreds of millions of dollars over the past few months, it's critical for both campaigns to keep voters engaged through Nov. 5.

"One of the things we've learned in the study of campaign ads is they can have some impact on voters, but it tends to be fairly small and the effects don't tend to last very long," said Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks advertising in federal elections.

Future TV reservations and new online ad buys will kick into high gear for the final few weeks of the campaign, as Harris and Trump cash in to keep momentum going through Election Day.

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