Harris Won The College-Educated Vote—But Trump Gained Young And Latino Voters. Here’s The Breakdown.
Former President Donald Trump has secured victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in an election that wasn't nearly as close as pollsters predicted it would be, with the Republican nominee picking up more points than expected among key demographics like Black voters and young people.
Key Facts
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Trump Gained Latino VotersHarris only won Latino voters by six points , a steep drop-off from Biden's 33-point edge in 2020 and Clinton's 38-point advantage eight years ago, according to exit poll data . Latino men gravitated toward Trump in greater numbers than ever before, with Trump winning the group by a 12-point margin, according to CNN exit polls . Biden won Latino men by 23 points in 2020 and Clinton won by 31 points in 2016. A majority of Latina women did vote for Harris, but she won the demographic by only 22 points, a major shift from the 39 points Biden won with in 2020 and 44-point Clinton advantage in 2016.
Harris Lost Some Black Male VotersHarris did win Black voters 85% to 13%—very similar to 2020 levels—and gained among Black women when compared to Biden in 2020, winning the group by 84 points instead of 81. But the Democratic edge among Black men slipped slightly: Harris won by a 56-point margin, down from Biden's 60 and Clinton's 69. Trump's margin in majority-Black counties shifted 5.5 points , the Guardian reported, which helped Trump secure victory in the swing states of Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina.
Trump Held White Voters Without DegreesVoters without college degrees supported Trump by a 14-point margin, compared to two points in 2020, while Harris' 13-point advantage with college-educated voters was virtually unchanged from 2020. That shift is almost entirely because Trump increased his margins among voters of color, both with and without degrees—while Harris' edge among college-educated white voters (a group she won by seven points) improved slightly, and Trump's edge among white voters without degrees (he won by 34 points) barely changed. Harris' margin of victory among college educated voters of color fell to 33 points, from 43 for Biden in 2020 and 50 for Clinton in 2016. Her edge among voters of color with no degree dropped to 30 points, from 46 in 2020 and 56 in 2016.
Trump Picked Up Young VotersTrump picked up support among young voters , who usually lean Democratic, but he lost ground with seniors. Harris won voters ages 18 to 29 by 11 points, a large drop from Biden's 24 and Clinton's 19. However, Harris and Trump tied the 65-and-over vote, which Trump narrowly won in 2016 and 2020. Trump gained slightly among voters in the middle: He won voters ages 45 to 64 by 10 points, more than his one-point victory in 2020 and his eight-point edge in 2016, and Harris won 30-44s by a one-point margin, compared to Biden's six points and Clinton's 10.
Harris Won WomenMore women voted for Harris than Trump (she won the demographic by 8 points, according to CNN exit polls) but she won less of the vote than both Clinton (13 points) and Biden (15 points). Black and Latina women overwhelmingly voted for Harris, though her margin among Latina women decreased, while Trump won white women by 8 points, according to CNN exit polling data, which is less than the 11-point margin he won in 2020.
Most Men Chose TrumpTrump won 55% of the male vote compared to 53% in 2020, buoyed by Latinos, white men and young voters. According to CNN's exit polling , Trump won men aged 18 to 29 by 49% to Harris' 47%. By comparison, Biden won that group 52% to 41% in 2016. Most Latino men voted for Trump for the first time in his three elections, and he held on to the white male vote by 23 points (the same as in 2020 and a slip from 31 points in 2016). Black men voted for Harris by a 56-point margin, less than Biden's 60 points and Clinton's 69.
More Urban Voters Chose TrumpTrump gained the support of more voters in major cities like Miami, New York City, Philadelphia and Chicago—though those cities still overwhelmingly backed Harris. Democrats got more than 50,000 fewer votes in Philadelphia than in the last election, and the GOP gained about 8,000, in a 5 point margin shift for Trump that, with the help of historically right-leaning parts of the state, helped him flip Pennsylvania. Trump improved his 2020 margins by 7 points in New York City and 6 points in Cook County, Illinois , home to Chicago.
Democrats Halted In SuburbsTrump also somewhat improved his margins in suburban areas, and stopped Democrats from making major gains. The president-elect is narrowly ahead in Bucks County , a Philadelphia suburb, as final votes are tallied, which Biden won 51.7% to 47.3% on his way to a Pennsylvania victory last election. Even in the suburban Philadelphia counties Trump poised to lose, like Montgomery and Lehigh counties, he'll likely do so by a smaller margin than compared to 2020. His margin of defeat also shrank in the Detroit-area counties of Wayne (Harris won 62.7% of the vote to Biden's 68.5%) and Oakland (Harris won 54.3% to Biden's 56.4%).
Key BackgroundPolling in the weeks leading up to the election indicated the race would be neck-and-neck between Harris and Trump, but momentum shifted toward Trump early as results rolled in Tuesday. Voters were prepared for days of recounts and double checks to delay the results of the election, but it was relatively clear by midnight who had an inside track to take the White House. As of 2 p.m. EST, the Associated Press had called 292 electoral votes for Trump and 224 for Harris, with 22 still outstanding. Trump had secured 51% of the popular vote to Harris' 47.5%, setting him up to be the first Republican to win the metric since 2004. Of the seven battleground states, a Trump victory has been declared in five and he's ahead as vote counting continues in the final two—Arizona and Nevada.
Further Reading Election 2024: Harris And Biden Congratulate Trump, Discuss Peaceful Transfer Of Power Celebrities React To Trump Win: Rogan And 50 Cent Celebrate, Billie Eilish Calls Victory A 'War On Women' America First Agenda: What To Know About The Project 2025 Alternative Reportedly Behind Trump Transition
