Heat Today: 5 key takeaways from Miami’s up-and-down first 10 games

Too many close calls can upend a team's season, and the Miami Heat could be maximizing their share too soon.

Miami's 123-121 road loss to the Pistons capped an up-and-down 10-game start to the season. Everyone is aware of Erik Spoelstra's last-second timeout miscue against Detroit on Tuesday night, including the three-time NBA champion.

"I just made a serious mental error there at the end," Spoelstra explained after his team's fourth loss in five games. "That's on me. I feel horrible about it. There's really no excuse for that. I'm 17 years in. We had talked about it in the huddle. I knew we didn't have anything. I just got emotional and reactive on that. And I just made a horrendous mistake there at the end. It's a shame because we really fought back. We had some great defensive possessions, hustle possessions — those 50/50 balls.

"And Tyler [Herro] was just sensational. You don't want it to come down to a mental error like that."

Often recognized as one of the NBA's most disciplined teams, the Miami Heat have been uncharacteristically ... not such in the last week, which has seen them lose three one-possession games in four matchups, including Tuesday's mishap. The lone exception to Miami's recent misfortune played out on Sunday, when the Heat benefitted from a timely off-ball screen to free a cutter to the basket on an inbounds play. The Pistons game mirrored that approach before Spoelstra called a timeout his team didn't have, leading to Malik Beasley's game-sealing free throws. Before the play was executed, the Heat had six players on the court and scrambled to avoid that whistle. Clutch-time play has been arguably Miami's greatest Achilles heel of the young season.

For the third time in five years, the Heat (4-6) are a sub-.500 team through 10 games, making it hard to overstate the risk of too many close losses piling up before the holidays. Let's examine five key takeaways about Miami's early peaks and valleys.

Clutch-time struggles

Two seasons ago, en route to becoming only the second No. 8 seed to reach the NBA Finals, the Heat led the NBA with 32 clutch-time victories. (Just so we're not haphazardly tossing out terms, clutch time refers to the final five minutes of a game with the score within five points). OK, cool. We good? Since that's clearer, it's worth noting Miami only has 24 such wins in the two seasons since.

This season, the Heat have lost four of their six clutch-time games but maintain a respectable plus-3.0 net rating in such situations. Sealing the deal is hard, though, which was illustrated during last Wednesday's loss to the Phoenix Suns . Miami couldn't get a shot off in the final seconds. Roughly 34 percent of the Heat's points in clutch time come from 3-pointers (fifth-highest rate in the league, per NBA.com), but late-game errors resulting in one-possession losses can undermine big-picture margins down the road.

Sometimes, you need more than a Herro

Tyler Herro 's leap is officially real. On Tuesday, he had his second career game with 40 points and 10 3-pointers. No other Heat player has even one such game. But his value readily goes beyond a game-long heat check. His performance against the Pistons caps the highest-scoring five-game stretch of his six-year career (29 points per game). In the last 20 years, only Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Butler have enjoyed hotter stretches in a Heat uniform.

On the season, Herro's blend of efficiency, pace and volume is blending better than ever. He's one of three players in the league averaging at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists with a true shooting percentage of at least 65 percent. The other two? Three-time and reigning MVP Nikola Jokić and three-time All-Star center Domantas Sabonis . Herro's All-Star-quality improvement has helped Miami avoid a deeper hole, but the team's offense falls off when he's on the bench. The Heat score 113 points per 100 possessions when the 24-year-old is on the court, but that figure falls to 103.2 when he sits. This season, that would be the difference between ranking 14th in the league and outright last.

Miami must crash the boards better

It's easy to want Bam Adebayo to simply score more, but his performance against Detroit illustrated exactly what Miami often trusts him with: efficient scoring (20 points on 13 shots), good rebounding (12 rebounds), sound playmaking (three assists) and active hands (one block, one steal). It was probably his second-best performance of the season, but it wasn't enough to keep Detroit off the glass, which continues to be a persistent issue for Miami this season.

The Heat are 25th in rebound rate, grabbing only 48.4 percent of available opportunities. They've been outrebounded nine times already, tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder (9-2) for the most such instances in the NBA without matching the same luck in the win column. In fact, Miami has been outrebounded in five straight games, two shy of tying its longest such streak in the last decade. No matter how hot Adebayo gets or Herro remains, winning games at all — let alone when they're close — is difficult without apt possession control. Although Miami finished 18th in rebound rate last season, the team has finished outside the top 20 only once in the last 10 seasons (22nd in 2020-21, lost in the first round of the playoffs).

The Heat need more consistent depth

Miami maintains a strong cast of role players, but the team needs contributors like Terry Rozier III, Duncan Robinson and Nikola Jović to continue filling gaps. Rozier is shooting only 38 percent but remains confident the ball will go in. Robinson's usage rate (21.2 percent) is fifth on the team, but he's also shooting only 38 percent on the season and has eclipsed the 50 percent mark only twice in nine outings. Jović enjoyed arguably his best game of the season on Sunday, but he left Tuesday's matchup with a reduced septum, which could open up room for other role players to step up in his absence.

Not every solution needs to be perimeter-based, though. Miami is averaging only 45 points in the paint per game (23rd in the NBA), and rookie center Kel'el Ware could help amend that. Here against the Timberwolves , he gave Rudy Gobert much to think about on this lob from Herro, who probed Minnesota's defense as Gobert tried to keep tabs on Ware behind him.

Team defense needs fine-tuning

Defense has also been a struggle for Miami, despite it being such a strength for so long. The Heat rank only 15th in defensive efficiency this season. That is on pace for the team's worst ranking since 2014-15 (21st), the season after LeBron James' last in South Beach. Only twice in Spoelstra's 16 full seasons as Heat coach has the team finished 15th or worse in defense (2014-15, finished 15th 2008-09).

One idea to fix this season's woes could be to play Ware more minutes, but Miami continues prioritizing his readiness to contribute extensively. He remains relatively raw on offense, but he's shown defensive promise in his 43 minutes thus far. In that small sample size, Heat opponents are shooting only 42.2 percent, which would outpace even OKC's top-ranked mark so far (42.6, per NBA.com). Given Ware's upside, it's even somewhat surprising none of his minutes have come alongside Adebayo.

On Sunday, Ware showed incredible timing while blocking three shots in his nine minutes. In the first quarter, the 7-footer stumbled to the ground when pursuing a loose ball, but he recovered in time to race from halfcourt and meet Donte DiVincenzo at the time. Listen to the thud of the block:

Later in the game, Ware showed more flashes when he helped negate a 3-on-2 transition opportunity for the Timberwolves. He did a great job keeping his head on a swivel as DiVincenzo and Jaden McDaniels traded passes before the latter's layup attempt was rejected. Ware then finished the job by blocking Gobert's shot before McDaniels cleaned up the spill.

Ware's most extensive playing time came against the Suns last Wednesday, when he scored seven points and grabbed three rebounds. He was straightforward about the approach he wants to bring to the Heat.

"Defensively, I am just trying to be more active," Ware said after Miami's loss to Phoenix last week. "I want to get my blocks."

(Top photo: Brian Sevald / )