Here's what's wrong with Cowboys' passing offense and how they can fix it
On a long journey, toll roads can be terrible. Oftentimes they sneak up on you, panic you with multiple payment lanes featuring unfamiliar signage, and then charge you exorbitant sums of money just to get to Point B. Locals aren't quite so upset at the sight. They see an opportunity to cut commute time and come prepared with something like a "quick pass."
A quick pass is a toll-road identification that typically lets regulars cruise through in the fastest lane while being charged the lowest amount. It's a system hack for those in the know.
The Cowboys, like all NFL teams, have their own "quick pass." It's literally a quick pass, as in a pass delivered in under 2.5 seconds. Quick passes fall under the play design umbrella of the offense. Quarterbacks are tasked with progressions and improvisation while play designers are largely responsible for first reads and those system hacks known as quick passes.
Quick passes serve two major functions:
- They get the ball out faster than the pass rush can reach their target point.
- They create opportunities and also simplify reads based on pre-snap looks and smart opportunistic play design.
It's an area in which the best QBs thrive. Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes are frequent names on the annual quick pass top 10 list. All of the above passers offer a certain competency, and all of the above passers accompany a respected, often elite, play designer.
Prescott is a name typically on this list. The Cowboys QB and his merry band of offensive weapons are deadly accurate when things are in rhythm and on time. This season – not so much.
Prescott and the Cowboys are the seventh worst in quick pass efficiency in 2024, calling into question the quality of the talent assembled by the front office and quality of play design under coach Mike McCarthy.
In all fairness, McCarthy is an easy target in this his fifth and possibly final season under contract in Dallas. McCarthy hasn't been given an easy job in 2024. He's endured a talent exodus for the second consecutive season and now coaches in a dreaded "lame duck" status amidst a soft rebuild . He's trying to keep his signal caller alive while starting two rookies on his offensive line and he's trying to move the ball without any running game to speak of or secondary receiver options in which to scheme.
It's understandable that of all NFL QBs with 150 or more drop backs this season, Prescott trails only Kirk Cousins in average time to throw (2.59 seconds compared to 2.56 seconds ATT). McCarthy is designing plays that get the ball out quickly and keeps things easy for his rookie linemen, Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe, and one suspect veteran, Terence Steele. The problem is it just isn't working.
The fact the Cowboys are seventh worst in the NFL in quick pass EPA this season speaks to the play design and roster talent more than the QB. It's the cause behind receivers struggling to get open and it's the reason the Cowboy passing attack ranks just 23rd while averaging a negative EPA for the first time in the Prescott era.
Great QBs typically define themselves with what they can create on the progressions they hit after the initial read flames out. Those are the times offensive coordinators pray they have the right man under center. Quick passes fall on the coaches and GM.
Much like a toll road quick pass on a long commute, a quick pass in football is a system hack that takes the easy route and makes offenses move, regardless of QB talent.
While many of the top QB-coordinator combos populate the top five list for quick passes, some oddballs have made appearances in 2024. Justin Fields and Sam Darnold, two QBs who flamed out and switched teams over the offseason, rank in the top five of quick pass EPA in 2024. Things have been simplified for them on their new teams and first reads are proving extremely fruitful.
Prescott hasn't been so lucky.
There's still plenty of time left in 2024. The Cowboys offense could bounce back, and Prescott's start could fade away for the outlier it is. But enough time has passed that play design has to become a question people are asking right now.
