High chance Caribbean system will develop, hurricane center says

ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Tuesday increased again its forecast odds a Caribbean system will develop into the season's next tropical depression or storm.

As of its 1 p.m. EST tropical outlook, the NHC said a broad area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

"Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea," forecasters said. "Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend."

The system is then forecast to move slowly northwest by early next week.

The NHC gave it a 60% chance of development in the next two days and 90% chance of development in the next seven days.

If it were to spin up into tropical-storm strength it could become Tropical Storm Sara.

AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said there are multiple scenarios with the feature in the Caribbean that are tied to the speed of development and track early on that could affect land areas with landfall and direct impacts later on.

Said DaSilva, "Not only does this have a significant chance of becoming a hurricane, but it may become a major hurricane very quickly."

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 17 named storms, 11 of which have developed into hurricanes, and five of those have been major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or more.

The most recent, Hurricane Rafael, fell apart over the weekend in the central Gulf of Mexico after striking Cuba last week.

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1-Nov. 30.