How New York could ruin Democrats' best shot at flipping the House

SYRACUSE, New York — host John Walsh wants you to know who he's voting for in the battleground race to represent his Skaneateles home in Congress.

"Tonight, America's most dangerous criminals are back out on our streets," he said in a recent ad that shares the aesthetic of his long-running show. That criminal presence, he added, comes "thanks to radical Democrats Kathy Hochul and John Mannion."

"Democrats support cashless bail," Walsh concludes. "I'm voting for Brandon Williams ."

The Central New York race between Williams, a freshman Republican, and Mannion, a two-term state senator, is one of the most crucial contests in determining what policies might emerge from the House in the next two years.

The race has turned into a referendum on what transpired at a lower strata of government. In New York state, the Democratic Party has controlled the executive and legislative branches of government since 2019 — leading to the implementation of an ambitious progressive agenda. Now that state-level dynamic is setting the stage for this federal race, with the challenger's track record more of a focus than the incumbent's.

The Williams-Mannion matchup is one of five in which New York Democrats are vying to unseat battleground district Republicans. Numerous forecasters have it pegged as Democrats' best chance in the country for picking up a seat this year.

Mannion's resume on issues such as abortion and school funding stands in stark contrast to Williams' and what's been accomplished by a Republican-led House that has done little of note since he was elected.

"If you look at the number of bills that I passed in 2023 and were signed into law, it's almost exactly the same as the entire Congress passed ," Mannion said in an interview.

Williams has also focused much of his election year rhetoric on Albany, but is more eager to tie Mannion to everything unpopular that's emanated from the state Capitol in recent years — like the bail reform measures cited by Walsh. He's also been happy to highlight the record of Hochul, whose polling numbers have sunk to near-record lows in recent months.

"He has been Kathy Hochul's wingman for the past four years," Williams said of Mannion during a recent debate.

Mannion insists he doesn't agree with Hochul on everything . And he hasn't hesitated to attack Williams for what he perceives as Congress' shortcomings, especially on immigration and IVF. He's even more eager to opine on what he's accomplished in the state Capitol.

"This is where the government should step in," he said about regulating social media . "We have done that in New York state to protect our children."

He claimed victory on lead pipe removal as well, saying that "we have taken an initiative [and] we are helping to fund the replacement of these last lines going into residences and businesses."

On boosting daycare affordability, he said, "there's a few things we've done in the state already , and I'm proud to have been a part of that."

Williams, for his part, routinely tackles federal policy questions by highlighting Albany's actions. When questioned about whether he'd support federal legislation to cover prison inmates under Medicaid, the congressmember pointed to a state-level law limiting solitary confinement.

"If I'm going to address the issues that are going on in our prisons, I'm going to focus on rescinding things like the HALT Act, things that my opponent has championed, that have made it the best time in New York state to be a criminal," Williams said.

Mannion, who voted against the HALT Act, responded that Williams "must not be informed."

Williams has similarly criticized Mannion's vote to let the state use federal funds to pay for healthcare for undocumented immigrants. And while Mannion was not yet in elected office when lawmakers approved a measure limiting the use of cash bail, Williams, like dozens of other Republicans in recent years , has accused his opponent of not doing enough to reverse the changes.

Tying Mannion to Hochul, though, has become a much more central line of attack than the rest for Williams and his political operation. The most successful talking point for Republicans running in last year's local elections was their opponents' political proximity to the governor. Since then, Hochul's poll numbers have only fallen further. Only 34 percent of respondents in a Siena poll last month said they viewed her favorably — and the GOP has made clear she'll once again be a top-of-the-list talking point.

"I never thought I'd see numbers lower than (former Gov. Andrew) Cuomo, and it amazes me how low her numbers are," Rep. Elise Stefanik told POLITICO in an interview earlier this fall. "We see the polling from [Rep. Marc Molinaro 's district] to Long Island to Williams' district. She is so underwater that it's a great foil for us to run against her."

The GOP has certainly followed up.

"John Mannion's in lockstep with Kathy Hochul. He supported her billion dollar giveaways to New York's illegal immigrants," said one ad from the National Republican Campaign Committee, referencing a line in the omnibus budget package to cover needs like shelter costs.

"John Mannion agrees with Kathy Hochul on defunding the police," alleged another NRCC ad, while a clip of a burning NYPD car played in the background. (In fact, he agrees with Hochul that the police shouldn't be defunded.)

But Williams has been willing to give Hochul credit on at least one subject.

One major undercurrent of the race — and the district's future — is the plan to create four Micron computer chip manufacturing plants about 20 minutes outside downtown Syracuse. The $100 billion private investment, accompanied by a $6.1 billion federal grant, stands to be one of the most consequential job creation programs in the history of upstate New York.

The funding came from the national CHIPS and Science Act, which was championed by President Joe Biden and approved in 2022. New York approved legislation that same year allowing it to participate in the program.

Mannion routinely highlights that state bill, which he co-sponsored, as well as the fact that Williams originally dubbed the CHIPS Act "a corporate welfare package."

"If we didn't have that state incentive, Micron would be talking about moving to Albuquerque or Austin or somewhere in Ohio," Mannion said. "But they're not. They're coming right here to my hometown."

But Williams has argued Mannion doesn't deserve any credit for the investment.

"We can thank Chuck Schumer for that," he said in a debate. "And Gov. Hochul."