How the 2024 Electoral Map Favors Donald Trump

From the Dispatch Politics on The Dispatch

Happy Tuesday! Election Day is 42 days away. And a pro tip for all you candidates out there: Always make sure you spell the name of the town you're campaigning in correctly. (Though to be fair to the Trump-Vance campaign, there are four separate Newtowns , a Newton , and both a North Newton and a South Newton in Pennsylvania. It's confusing!)

Up to Speed

A Nebraska legislator who represents a key swing vote in Republicans' fight to institute winner-take-all apportionment of its electoral votes said Monday he would not vote in favor of the proposed change. "After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change," Republican state Sen. Mike McDonnell said in a statement. Republican Gov. Jim Pillen said last week he would only call a special session of the unicameral Legislature to make the change if enough members needed to overcome a filibuster said publicly they would vote in favor of it. McDonnell's opposition leaves Republicans at least one shy of the necessary vote count unless a Democrat in the Legislature or its one registered nonpartisan progressive member flips, an unlikely scenario.

McDonnell's decision may have implications for the final result of the election. Former President Donald Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by 5 points in Arizona, 4 points in Georgia, and 2 points in North Carolina in a Monday New York Times poll . Should Trump win those three states plus Nevada and Harris win the "blue wall" of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Nebraska's one electoral vote would make the difference between an outright victory and a battle in the House of Representatives that would likely see Trump prevail.

North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the GOP's nominee for governor, dealt with more fallout from last week's CNN report on salacious online activities as the Republican Governors Association suggested Monday it will not spend more money to help him. "We don't comment on internal strategy or investment decisions, but we can confirm what's public—our current media buy in North Carolina expires tomorrow, and no further placements have been made," the organization's communications director, Courtney Alexander, told National Review. Meanwhile, the Republican governors of two neighboring states, Tennessee and Georgia , have rescinded their endorsements of the embattled nominee—in the case of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, just weeks after he appeared at an RGA fundraiser for Robinson.

A super PAC supporting Republican and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan in his Senate race against Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks reserved $18.2 million in advertising, Politico reported Monday. That investment brings Republican spending in the race to more than twice that of the Democrats, as leaders of GOP campaign arms have expressed worries about their fundraising gap in other, more winnable Senate races.

There's a vice presidential debate next week in New York City, and CBS News (which is hosting the debate) has the details on who is playing whom in prep. Democratic nominee Tim Walz has been sparring against Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, playing the role of Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance—a millennial for a millennial, if you will. Meanwhile, Vance is practicing with Rep. Tom Emmer standing in for his fellow Minnesotan.

Some big news in a battleground House district from the New York Times, which reports that Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, a freshman Republican, made some ethically questionable hires in his congressional office. Records show D'Esposito placed both his long-time fiancée's daughter and a woman with whom he was having an affair on his staff payroll. The Times reports that the congressman stopped paying both women in July 2023 after D'Esposito's fiancée discovered the affair and broke up with him. D'Esposito won his Long Island-based seat in 2022 in one of the midterm election's biggest upsets. His opponent this year is Democrat Laura Gillen.

Reapportionment Gives Trump an Electoral College Edge

Imagine waking up the day after the presidential election to find out Kamala Harris stiff-armed Donald Trump in the Rust Belt but was swept by the Republican nominee in the Sun Belt, including in Nevada, a state Democrats have not lost in two decades.

Four years ago, this outcome would have netted the vice president more than the 270 Electoral College votes she needs to win the White House, with victories in battlegrounds Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, combined with success in the reliable blue states, adding up to 273 electoral votes. But after the post-2020 reapportionment of congressional seats—which happens every 10 years—this same result would only produce 269 electoral votes for Harris.

In other words, reapportionment has improved Trump's slight edge in the Electoral College.

As the distribution of Electoral College votes stands, the vice president can still defeat Trump if those states break that way. That's because Nebraska awards electoral votes proportionally, with the winner of the White House in each of the state's three congressional districts earning one vote. And while Nebraska is a red state, the 2nd Congressional District, anchored in Omaha, is a swing seat that favors Harris. Winning it would bump her to 270—but that would be cutting it close.

"Holding this election under the previous decade's figures, the three Rust Belt states alone would have been enough for Harris without the need for Nebraska 2," said Dave Wasserman, the senior editor and elections analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. (Maine also awards electoral votes by congressional district, and like in 2020, this arrangement is expected to benefit Trump .)

This explains why Republicans in Nebraska and nationally have been furiously trying to drum up enough votes in the state's unicameral Legislature to shift the allocation of Electoral College votes to winner-take-all. With the announcement Monday that a key Republican state legislator is refusing to support the move, it appears the effort will come up short. With polls showing the race between Harris and Trump effectively a tossup, the ramifications of one Electoral College vote could be huge.

"It's really not that purple anymore, which is why Republicans are desperate to move to winner-take-all," Wasserman said, assessing Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. President Joe Biden easily defeated Trump there in 2020 and would have done so even with its redrawn boundaries, although the seat is currently held by a Republican, Rep. Don Bacon.

A scenario in which Harris needs that district's vote to win by the slimmest of Electoral College margins is predicated on Trump flipping Nevada, a battleground state he lost in 2016 and 2020, albeit narrowly each time. Right now polls in the Silver State have the race as a statistical tie , though Harris has erased the durable advantage Trump maintained over Biden prior to the president dropping his reelection bid.

All this matters because of Electoral College changes in other states following the 2020 census.

As happens every 10 years, the new state-by-state population figures are used to redistribute seats in the House of Representatives. (House district boundaries also are redrawn, which can affect the partisan makeup of the chamber.) In the most recent reapportionment , the deep blue states of California, Illinois, and New York each lost a House seat, while the red states of Florida and Montana gained one each, and Texas added two.

Since each state's number of electoral votes is equal to the number of House and Senate seats it has, those changes contributed significantly to an Electoral College that is now slightly more favorable toward Trump: They give Trump more electoral votes in states he will almost certainly win.

But other shifts occurred too: The purple "blue wall" states Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one House seat while the purple state North Carolina, not won by a Democrat since 2008, gained one House seat. Meanwhile, the blue states Colorado and Oregon each gained one House seat and the red states Ohio and West Virginia each lost one House seat.

Eyes on the Trail

Former President Donald Trump is headed to Savannah, Georgia, for an event this afternoon where he will discuss his plan to "lower taxes for American business owners."

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is scheduled this afternoon to deliver remarks at a "reception"—likely a fundraiser—in St. Paul, Minnesota.

The Trump campaign was scheduled today to proceed with Day 2 of a three-day bus tour across Wisconsin, with stops in Green Bay, Appleton, and Beaver Dam. Headliners for the events include former Pentagon official Kash Patel; former Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York; Rep. Troy Nehls of Texas; Wisconsin GOP Senate nominee Eric Hovde; Wisconsin GOP chairman Brian Schimming; and various local and state conservative activists.

The Harris campaign this afternoon is hosting a "Republicans for Harris-Walz organizing event" in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Headlining the gathering are former Rep. Joe Walsh of Illinois, former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, and Pennsylvania Republicans who are supporting the vice president over their party's nominee.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff today is scheduled to headline Harris campaign "receptions"—most likely fundraisers—in Houston and Austin.