If Penn State wins out, are they in? [column]

James Franklin said what everyone seems to think, in the postgame gloom Saturday.

"The reality of college football is everything is still ahead of us,'' he said after Penn State lost to Ohio State again. "We've got to do a great job of making the corrections, ... and then we've got to find a way to get a win next week at home. And everything is still in front of us.''

Meaning, of course, that by consensus, getting in the new 12-team College Football Playoff will be easier than climbing the Buckeye mountain.

If Penn State wins out, beating 5-4 Washington here Saturday, then 1-7 Purdue on the road, then 6-3 Minnesota on the road, then 4-4 Maryland, it's in the field, right?

Probably. It doesn't strike me as quite the no-brainer as it's been portrayed.

The good news, if you're Penn State, is Saturday's loss is being perceived differently nationally than in less-than-Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions dropped just to sixth in the AP poll and seventh in the coaches' poll, both released Sunday.

The ranking that matters comes Tuesday, when the College Football Playoff committee announces its first run at it. Expect the committee to see something similar to what the traditional pollsters did: Not a grisly repeat of what has become an annual flameout, but a close loss to a top-five team in a game that swung on a several, in James Franklin's phrasing, "50-50 plays.''

Still, it's not hard to cast doubt on Penn State's resume. If they win out, they'll have beaten one team, 6-3 Illinois, that currently has fewer than four losses. There are six Big Ten teams with winning records in conference play. Penn State has beaten none of them.

West Virginia, Illinois, USC, Wisconsin, ... none of those wins look as good as they did at the time.

You don't even have to go outside the Big Ten or a doomsday (in Nittany Nation) scenario:

Oregon and Ohio State win out. Indiana wins out except for a competitive loss to Ohio State on the road week 11. Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana would be in. Would 11-1 Penn State, the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, also be in?

The problem is one the Power Four asked for with these giant, sloppy conference realignments: Of the four Big Ten contenders, only Ohio State plays the other three. Oregon, Indiana and Penn State play only one of the others.

Nationally, the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 champions get the top four seeds. The runners-up in the Big Ten and SEC are locks. The non-power five gets a berth, which would go to Boise State as it stands now.

That's seven of the 12, leaving five spots for everyone else.

In this context (and only this one), Saturday was good for Penn State, with Clemson, Texas A&M, Pitt, and Iowa State all losing.

Either Alabama or LSU will be eliminated (probably) when they play at LSU Saturday.

It all appears to leave Penn State in a group with, as it now stands, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Indiana, the Alabama-LSU winner and, probably, the Big 12 runner-up.

Six teams for five spots. But that doesn't factor in potential upsets in conference championship games. What if somebody beats a undefeated Miami for the ACC title, or an undefeated BYU in the Big 12?

Are you taking Penn State over, for example, a 12-1 Miami?

Crazy stuff will happen, of course. But it can safely be said that, IF Penn State wins out, most possible crazy stuff could only benefit them.

It cannot safely be said, not quite, that the Lions control their own destiny.