It's Time to Adjust Your Vikings Expectations

The 2024 Minnesota Vikings were supposed to win about six or seven games in 2024. Oddsmakers set the over-under at 6.5 wins, meaning a 7-10 record was probably the ceiling.

It's Time to Adjust Your Vikings Expectations

Fast-forward to the end of Week 3, and Minnesota owns a 3-0 record , with all three facets of the operations on a roll. The defense ranks first in the NFL per DVOA , the offense is moving the sticks and scoring points, and special teams are close to flawless.

So, it's time to adjust your Vikings-themed expectations.

Playoffs?

When the NFL season kicked off on September 8th, the Vikings had a 28% chance of reaching the postseason, according to oddsmakers. They ranked near the bottom bowl of the NFL's hierarchy. After dismantling the Houston Texans 34-7, however, the odds have climbed to 69%.

Most 3-0 teams eventually reach the postseason. Of course, cynical Vikings fans may cite the 2016 season and 5-0 start before a collapse to 8-8, but this team is more complete. Minnesota isn't relying on defensive and special teams touchdowns as they did eight years ago in Sam Bradford's first (only?) season.

The numbers suggest that the Vikings will make the playoffs. A meltdown will be required to prevent it.

Verdict: The playoffs are absolutely in play.

NFC North Winners?

Three weeks ago, Minnesota possessed an 11% chance of winning the NFL North. In fact, that was the worst among the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Chicago Bears.

Now, that percentage has climbed to 35%, per sportsbooks, as Vegas still trusts the Lions to take the North.

Minnesota travels to Green Bay on Sunday for a road date with Jordan Love or Malik Willis' Packers, so more will be learned about the Vikings' mettle in six days. A division win out of the gate would nudge the North odds even higher for the Vikings.

Let's face it: Kevin O'Connell's team is playing wonderfully, and if one doesn't believe they can win the NFC North, it's out of sheer paranoia that something will go wrong because history isn't kind to the purple team. That's the only legitimate fear. Nothing is unbecoming about the Vikings on the field right now to rule out NFC North contendership.

Verdict: The NFC North is attainable. It's not far-fetched.

Super Bowl?

This is where fans can dial it back if they want a reality check. The numbers — offense, defense, and special teams — suggest Minnesota has the gumption to play or win February football. However, sustainability cannot be measured; it can only be predicted.

Generally speaking, the Vikings are unlikely to win a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold, chiefly because an NFC team like the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, or Detroit Lions will hit stride. Yet, it's not unfathomable to dream about the 2024 Vikings nibbling at the Super Bowl. They have played that well in three games, knocking off the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers and Houston Texans in back-to-back weeks. Dream your daydreams.

Verdict: Just the stuff of daydreams for now.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow . The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, 'The Sopranos,' Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.