Journal Poll: NM voters strongly back raising age to buy AR-15-style rifles, more divided on banning them
Sep. 22—SANTA FE — An overwhelming majority of New Mexico voters support increasing the minimum age to purchase certain semi-automatic firearms from 18 to 21, but voters are more closely split when it comes to the question of an outright ban on the sale of such weapons, a new Journal Poll found.
A total of 75% of registered, likely voters surveyed said they would favor legislation raising the minimum age to purchase an AR-15-style rifle, while 20% expressed opposition.
A majority of both male and female voters supported the idea, though women were more likely than men to express support, and most voters surveyed in all regions of New Mexico backed the proposal.
The poll results also showed a majority of both Democratic and Republican voters in support, with 59% of Republicans expressing support compared to 36% in opposition.
However, support levels among male voters and Republicans dropped sharply when it came to the question of whether to enact a ban on AR-15-style rifles.
The percentage of male voters who supported a ban was 38% — compared to 69% of male voters who supported increasing the minimum age to buy such firearms — and a majority of voters in three of the state's five regions opposed the idea of an assault weapon ban.
Most voters in the Albuquerque metro area and north-central New Mexico, which includes Santa Fe, expressed support for the proposal.
"A ban is a bridge too far for many Republicans and residents of certain parts of the state," said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll.
Semi-automatic AR-15-style weapons have come under scrutiny after being used in several school shootings, including a shooting at a Georgia high school this month in which two teachers and two students were killed.
In addition, similar weapons were recovered after two separate assassination attempts targeting former President Donald Trump.
"I suspect that some of these high-profile public shootings that have occurred impact public opinion," Sanderoff said.
Firearms bills expected to be brought back
The results of the new Journal Poll show voter views have not changed much in the last two years on the question of whether the age limit of 21 should be established in order to purchase certain semi-automatic firearms.
A 2022 poll found 71% of New Mexico voters surveyed supported the idea, while 21% opposed it.
A bill that would have raised the minimum age to purchase or possess such weapons was proposed during this year's 30-day legislative session, but stalled in the state House.
House Majority Whip Reena Szczepanski, D-Santa Fe, said this week she plans to file a similar bill during the 60-day session that starts in January.
Currently, licensed arms dealers can sell shotguns and rifles to individuals age 18 and older, with handgun sales limited to people age 21 and older. But New Mexico does not have a clearly defined minimum age to possess a semi-automatic firearm.
Meanwhile, a separate proposal banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, with certain exemptions, also fell short of winning legislative approval this year.
Rep. Andrea Romero, D-Santa Fe, said she also intends to bring the legislation back during the upcoming session.
New Mexico has one of the nation's highest firearm fatality rates, at 27.3 deaths per 100,000 people as of 2022, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.
Lawmakers have already approved bills in recent years requiring expanded background checks, establishing a seven-day waiting period to purchase a firearm and allowing guns to be temporarily seized from individuals deemed to pose a threat to themselves or others.
However, some of those measures have faced court challenges, and pro-gun groups have argued a New Mexico assault weapon ban would be found unconstitutional.
But that claim has been challenged by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham's administration, which supports the proposal and believes it would be upheld if challenged.
Poll methodology
The Journal Poll is based on a statewide random sample of 532 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, gender education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
The poll was conducted from Sept. 6 through Sept. 13, excluding the evening of Sept. 10 (due to the presidential debate). The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.
Both cellphone numbers (88%) and landlines (12%) of likely general election voters were used.
