Kamala Harris Is Taking a Big Risk By Playing It Safe
By the time DNC occurred, Harris settled into small but persistent lead in the polls. While this has been a vast improvement over Joe Biden (who was on track to large loss to Trump), it also had the perverse effect of making Harris scale back the boldness of her campaigning. The Harris campaign has evidently adopted a do-no-harm strategy—premised on the belief that their best bet is to not upset the applecart with any new promises and instead to improve their position with moderate Republicans by emphasizing Donald Trump's instability.
This new strategy can be seen in everything from the elevation of Liz Cheney as a surrogate (Harris recently met with Cheney at the birthplace of the Republican party in Wisconsin) to Tim Walz's genial, non-combative engagement with JD Vance during the vice-presidential debate. A further example of cautious campaigning is the fact Harris been notably unwilling to criticize or break with Joe Biden in any way, even over his unpopular Middle East policy.
The problem with a let-sleeping-dogs lie strategy is that you cannot control outside events. October in a presidential year is famously a month of surprises. Last week, a dockworker's strike threatened to upend the economy—a danger only averted when the union agreed to postpone the strike until January. Th situation in the Middle East presents an even greater possibility of events spiralling out of control. Israel's onslaught against Gaza has already spread into a larger regional conflict that now includes the still-expanding war in Lebanon as well as missile exchanges with Iran.
Biden himself is aware that the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing a policy that endangers the Democrats. Last Wednesday, Politico reported , "Biden told confidants that he did not believe his Israeli counterpart wanted a cease-fire deal, arguing that Netanyahu was trying to perpetuate the conflict to save his political future and assist Trump in November's election." The risk here is not just Netanyahu's actions but Biden's fecklessness. Even though Biden can recognize that Netanyahu is keeping the conflict going to help Trump, Biden is unwilling to use his presidential power to curb Netanyahu in any way. By refraining from distancing herself from Biden, Harris is tying herself to a policy that is already unpopular with Democratic voters and could become an anchor dragging her down if the United States becomes militarily engaged in another Middle Eastern war.
The play-it-safe strategy also means doing fewer events and less media. On Saturday, Politico published a lengthy report documenting that dissent against this policy was rising among Democrats. According to Politico:
Democratic operatives, including some of Kamala Harris' own staffers, are growing increasingly concerned about her relatively light campaign schedule, which has her holding fewer events than Donald Trump and avoiding unscripted interactions with voters and the press almost entirely.
In interviews with POLITICO, nearly two dozen Democrats described Harris as running a do-no-harm, risk-averse approach to the race they fear could hamper her as the campaign enters its final 30-day stretch.
Harris and her running mate Tim Walz were both highly visible before the DNC but have kept a lower profile since. As Politico notes, "Walz, who in part won the running mate slot because of his strength doing high-profile interviews — but ... has largely stopped doing them since joining a campaign run by a team determined to minimize risk." Over the last month, Harris' avoidance of the public spotlight resembled that Hillary Clinton's losing effort in 2016 than the more vigorous campaigning style that brought Barack Obama victory in 2008.
Playing-it-safe and pursuing Never Trump Republicans might make sense if Harris had a healthy lead and the Democratic base were solidly on board and energized. But sadly this is far from the case.
Massachusetts congressman Seth Moulton describes the race as "frighteningly close." even with a new candidate. He wants Harris to talk much more, and in detail, about her economic and immigration policies. A Democratic operative told Politico, "You gotta get to Michigan. You need to live in Pennsylvania [because] the challenge is still Black voters in Philadelphia, Black voters in Detroit." In a private call with donors, Congresswoman Elissa Slotnik said , "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan." It could be that Slotnik is trying to drum up money from donors by scaring them, but prudence suggests that given the public polls are close, her warning should be heeded.
Harris is still not where she needs to be with Black voters , Latino voters , young voters , or working class voters . These are the groups the Harris campaign must focus on energizing. Given that fact, pursuing Never Trump Republicans by praising Dick Cheney is an act of folly, as Dave Zirin recently noted in The Nation. Never Trump Republicans are very few in number—Liz Cheney's defeat in 2022 may have been the biggest primary loss by an incumbent in this century—and catering to their agenda risks alienating core Democratic constituencies.
The good news is that there are signs the Harris campaign itself is doing a reset on the play-it-safe strategy. Next week, Harris will be ramping up her media appearances , doing interviews with 60 Minutes, The View, Stephen Colbert, and Howard Stern. She'll also be campaigning in Nevada and Arizona. The media interviews themselves are only baby steps since, aside from 60 Minutes, they will mostly be with extremely friendly outlets.
Beyond a more visible Harris, we also need to see a bolder Harris. There is no reason for her to be afraid of criticizing Joe Biden—especially since Biden and his staff have started to undermine Harris by suggesting that he could've won if he stayed in the race. As CNN reported on Sunday, "Top aides to Kamala Harris are heading into the final month of the 2024 presidential race still wrestling with how much distance she can credibly claim from Joe Biden as she looks for more ways to weave in breaks with him on the campaign trail." CNN also reported that polling conducted by Democrats shows that voters are looking for Harris to separate herself from Biden.
A sharp break with Biden on a few core issues would be exactly the bold move Harris needs right now.
