Kamala Harris Sees Historic Surge in Popularity—New Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris ' favorability has experienced an increase of 16 points since July, an historic rise comparable only to the surge in standing for then-President George W. Bush following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, according to an NBC News poll that was published on Sunday.

The new poll, which was conducted from September 13 to 17 of 1,000 registered voters, represents the most significant rise for any major party presidential candidate in NBC News polls during this period.

In the NBC News poll from July, Harris, the Democratic nominee, was viewed positively by 32 percent of registered voters against 50 percent who perceived her negatively, leading to a net rating of -18. This score was nearly the same as President Joe Biden 's rating at the time.

However, in the current polling results, Harris has since seen a rise to a 48 percent positive score, with a slightly less 45 percent negative perception, providing a +3 net rating. No presidential candidate from any major party has witnessed this scale of popularity surge in an election, according to the 35-year history of NBC News polling data.

The only recorded ascents greater than Harris' in continuous NBC News polls include: then-President George W. Bush's boost following 9/11 where his positive rating soared nearly 30 points, then-President George H.W. Bush 's popularity climb after the First Gulf War with his positive score increasing by 24 points, and Ross Perot, an independent candidate, who observed a 23-point rise when he made a reentry into the 1992 presidential race after having previously withdrawn.

In contrast, the net rating in Sunday's poll data for former President Donald Trump , the Republican nominee, remains largely the same as it was in July, with 40 percent positive and 53 percent negative, creating a -13 net rating.

"In July, there was a stiff breeze heading directly at President Biden and obscuring a clear path to victory. Today, the winds have turned in Kamala Harris' favor," Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates told NBC News. Horwitt, a Democratic pollster, conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Newsweek has emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment Sunday morning.

While Harris' improvement is noteworthy, the latest NBC News poll also shows potential challenges for Democrats . Primarily, inflation and the cost of living continue to remain the top concerns for voters. A significant 66 percent of voters claim their family's income cannot keep up with the soaring cost of living.

In addition, despite Harris leading Trump on the aspect of "change," an unrelated query highlights a probable weakness for Harris tied to Biden's presidency: 40 percent of voters express a concern that Harris might continue with Biden's approach. This is closely trailed by the 39 percent more concerned about Trump repeating his first-term strategies as president, while 18 percent assert neither scenario as a concern.

In light of the country's direction, a whopping 65 percent of voters believe that the nation is on the wrong track, a stark contrast to the 28 percent who perceive it as heading in the right direction.

Albeit the "wrong-track" percentage is lesser than its usual during the Biden-Harris administration, the pessimistic perspective strongly echoes voter sentiment witnessed when the shift of party in the White House occurred in 2016 and 2020.

While Harris saw a dramatic favorability rise in Sunday's NBC News poll, the decisive swing states that will determine the Electoral College winner in November remain razor thin.

National polls showed Trump holding a consistent lead over Biden, with margins typically ranging from 2 to 4 percentage points. However, the political landscape underwent a seismic shift when Biden withdrew from the race on July 21 after a disastrous debate performance against Trump in June.

Harris' emergence as the Democratic nominee has altered the dynamics of the race. The latest polls often show Harris and Trump separated by within the margin of error.